FairwayJay's NFL underdog picks for Week 3
A good start to the 2022 NFL season at 6-4 ATS following a huge Week 1 card and last week's 2-1 ATS results in Week 2. That includes Week 2 and the Jaguars easy 24-0 shutout win as 'Dog over the Colts, and the miraculous Miami fourth quarter comeback to beat Baltimore 42-28. You BET-cha! We move to Week 3 already hitting five outright underdog winners and now 73 outright underdog winners the past 5+ years posting NFL 'Dog picks at OSGA, and a record of 136-95 ATS (58.9%).
Our delayed post this week means we miss out on some key numbers like the Miami Dolphins, who are down from +6 to +5 at many leading online sportsbooks in a AFC East first place showdown vs. the juggernaut Buffalo Bills. Bookmaker is down to +4.5, and the Bills-Dolphins game has the week's highest total at 52.5 - matching the Lions-Vikings, which has also seen an adjustment downward from the Vikings -6.5 to -5.5, but still at -6 at BetOnline.
Through 2 weeks, underdogs are 17-15 ATS in 2022 after starting last season a sizzling 21-11 ATS through Week 2, when we were 5-1 ATS to start the season and chipped-in another outright 'Dog winner in Week 3 with our only pick of the week. This week there is so many more 'Dogs of interest, and we chip-in our biggest card in 5+ years posting weekly NFL underdog picks. See below for our EIGHT (8) underdog picks this week as we hold nothing back and having nothing further to prove or protect. Unlike most touts, who could only wish they could hit near 58% ATS over 5 years, 70% ATS in a single season, or 15+ years of winning NFL results.
Will there be more unbelievable finishes and upsets like last week's Dolphins fish fry, or the Cardinals robbing Raiders bettors in Vegas 29-23 in OT after trailing 23-7 in fourth quarter? Or the NY Jets 13-point comeback in the final 2 minutes to steal the cash from Cleveland bettors with a 31-30 win? No, the NFL is crazy most weeks of the season, and tough to beat when betting.
Let's see if we can post a third straight winning week to start the 2022 season and chip-in additional winners with information you can bet on.
NFL Rushing Leaders
The Cleveland Browns kicked off Week 3 with a 29-17 win as a home favorite over the Pittsburgh Steelers. A last play of the game lateral, fumble by the Steelers turned into a Browns touchdown to add to the winning margin. Cleveland posted their third straight game rushing for at least 170 yards. The Browns lead the league in rushing averaging 190 yards per game, and Browns RB Nick Chubb leads the league in rushing with 341 yards. Saquon Barkley (236), Jonathan Taylor (215) and D'Andre Swift (200) are next through two games heading into Week 3.
I'll be updating rushing stats and other stats, situations and scheduling to assist you throughout the season. Through two weeks this season, teams that run the ball 30 times or more in a game are 13-4-1 SU and 12-6 ATS. That's actually below the average I've documents for nearly two decades, as last year those heavy rushing teams in weekly games went 139-34 ATS (80%). I don't include if both teams happen to run the ball at least 30 times in a game, which is rare, but has happened once this season when both the Bears and 49ers rushed the ball 37 times in Week 1 on a rainy, wet day at Soldier Field.
What's even worse is if teams fail to run the ball more during the course of a game. Teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game are 5-16 SU/ATS this season. There were two games in Week 1 when both teams failed to rush the ball at least 23 times.
I also document and monitor teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game. Those teams are just 12-7-1 SU and 11-9 ATS this season- well below the near 20 year average of 75% ATS. So a correction is coming, and we'll look to cash in more on underdogs when we project a rushing advantage as noted. Combining those point-of-attack play edges with a stronger defense, and you have yourself a winning formula and increased odds of cashing in your bets.
Just one of many ways to handicap NFL games, but know that turnovers will trump most any statistic in a NFL contest. Teams that are minus (-3) or greater in the turnover column in a game are 0-7 SU/ATS this season after going 3-43 SU and 2-44 ATS last season. Three turnover differential or greater is nearly a certain loser when betting, which of course the Saints were last week with 5 turnovers to 1 for the Buccaneers.
Last week we misjudged our only loser on the Saints, but can't get too disappointed knowing the negative turnover stats. Still, we forgot to remind ourselves to never bet on fkup QB Jameis Winston when he's facing a Class A defense. Worthless Winston turned the ball over on three straight possession in the fourth quarter with the game tied 3-3. One was a pick-6 and all three led to the Buccaneers 17 points in the fourth quarter in a 20-10 Bucs win.
For those critical of my comments or anyone else's about Jameis Winston, here is what Buccaneers LB Devin White had to say about the former Bucs quarterback after they forced Jameis' mistakes as the Saints quarterback Sunday.
"When Jameis left our team, everybody knows what he did that last year...he threw 30 picks," White said. "We just knew he'd give us the ball."
On to this weeks underdog picks, and another huge card, our biggest in 5 years posting at OSGA, where members become VIP's. Limited analysis this week as we go on the defensive 'Dog attack hoping some of our home 'Dogs can slow the top offenses with the Eagles, Bills and Chiefs all scoring more than 30 points per game and averaging greater than 400 yards per game.
Be sure to check the NFL injury reports and monitor the betting lines as a number of teams have suffered key injuries. That includes the LA Chargers with star QB Justin Herbert (ribs) now doubtful for the Week 3 home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars with the betting line falling from -7 to -3 at a many online sportsbooks. Same with Jameis Winston, who was hurting last week and is questionable this week with back and ankle ailments. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker (ankle) is out again this week.
NFL Week 3 Underdog Picks
Be sure to check some of the top cash bonuses offered at the online sportsbooks linked below, and get in the game with live betting and added in-game betting options and props more popular than ever.
Miami (+5) vs Buffalo - Dolphins Moneyline +185 at Heritage
NY Jets (+6) vs Cincinnati - Jets Moneyline +215 at Jazz Sports
Carolina (+2.5) vs New Orleans - Panthers Moneyline +120 at BetAnySports
Indianapolis (+6) vs Kansas City - Colts Moneyline +210 at Bovada
Washington (+7, -125) vs Philadelphia - Commanders Moneyline +235 at BetUS
Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay - Packers Moneyline +100 at GT Bets
Denver (+1.5) vs San Francisco - Broncos Moneyline +105 at MyBookie
Dallas (+1.5) at NY Giants - Cowboys +100 Moneyline at Diamond Sports live betting on Monday Night Football.
Buffalo at Miami
While the line is down, you can elect to reduce your wager, or still bet Miami +3 in the first half with reduced juice. Buffalo has some key injuries in the defensive backfield along with a pair of rookie cornerbacks saddled with trying to slow two of the top-3 leading wide receivers this season in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Read more of my Bills-Dolphins preview at TheLines, which includes additional stats, insight and prop bets to consider.
Also, a sports betting contact and respected handicapper Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports sent over some added stats and info along with ATS situations, which includes a 79% ATS situation supporting Miami at home as a good offense at home playing a stronger defensive team. Also, teams that have scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games, as the Bills have, are just 19-55 ATS since 1980.
I also preview the Saints-Panthers game, which I bet earlier at +3 and added to my teaser bets. Buy the Panthers to +3 if you're more comfortable, but regardless, add Carolina to your moneyline bets. Our former OSGA colleague, the late Glenn Greene, noted it's often "very wise to look over the menu for other options including the money line for a healthy wagering lifestyle." RIP, as we do that weekly when betting on the NFL games and underdogs. I'm not including the Titans as an underdog pick, but I did preview the Raiders-Titans contest as well. Raiders leading RB Josh Jacobs became ill, and traveled separately to Nashville Saturday and remains questionable to play.
Also, why is the line dropping in the Bills-Dolphins game if more than 75% of the spread bets and greater than 80% of the money is on the Bills at the biggest online sportsbooks? In fact, here are the NFL Week 3 betting favorites generating the most spread bets and money, as of Friday at one major U.S. online Sportsbook (DK).
1. KC -5.5, 93% of bets and handle 2.
2. BAL -3, 90% of bets and 92% of handle
3. PHI -6.5, 86% of bets and 79% of handle
4. BUF -5, 86% of bets and 80% of handle
5. CIN -6, 86% of bets and 74% of handle
The Buffalo Bills are the public team and it will be tough to bet against them, but you'll pay a premium to do so a majority of the weeks moving forward. Same with some other teams we're betting against this week. Win, lose or draw, we'll take our chances and let the chips fall where they may pre-flop and make some live betting and in-game adjustments along the way.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.