Predictions and underdog picks for NFL Week 2
The NFL Week 2 slate follows a Week 1 of the NFL season that produced some big surprises. Home teams won just 6-of-16 games and the Bears and Seahawks pulled off outright underdog wins as 6.5 to 7-point underdogs. The Seahawks Monday Night Football win capped off a 4-3 ATS Week 1 result for us with three outright underdog winners on the Seahawks, Giants and Vikings. The Seahawks win also capped a pretty big Week 1 for the leading online sportsbooks, as more than 85% of the spread money was on the Denver Broncos as a road favorite at many top online sportsbooks.
The Broncos loss, along with the Bengals, 49ers, Titans and Colts tie also knocked out an enormous number of entries in the NFL Survivor pools and Last Man Standing contests across the country. That includes those pools and contests at MyBookie and Jazz Sports.
Following last years 70% season picking only underdogs on these pages (28-12) ATS, that runs the 5+ year record to 134-34 ATS (58.5%) with 71 outright underdog winners.
Week 2 is always an adjustment and often over-reaction to Week 1 results. It's also one of my favorite weeks, as during the 2009 season when I was selling picks and on handicapping shows in Las Vegas and national radio talking sports, I went 10-0 ATS on the biggest week of releases in my career and posted publicly a written analysis for every game.
This week I'm traveling visiting friends and family, and limited on time to handicap and research. The NFL Week 2 card is also not as attractive. There are four favorites of 10 points or more, and the Seahawks are catching nearly double-digits with a short week at San Francisco. None of the big 'Dogs are attractive enough with sub-par or poor offensive lines, and running games that were ineffective last week other than the Falcons, who rushed for 201 yards and blew the game late against the Saints. But Atlanta travels to Los Angeles, and the Rams have extra prep off a Thursday game and will be ready to ram it to their next opponent with QB Mariota making his first road start in years and perhaps in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Bears too at rival Green Bay.
Week 2 Winless Teams Match-ups
Indianapolis (-4) at Jacksonville
Atlanta at Los Angeles (-10.5)
Cincinnati (-7) at Dallas
Houston at Denver (-10)
Arizona at Las Vegas (-5.5)
Can't believe it's Week 2 already. Early bet count:— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) September 13, 2022
68% KC -4.5 v LAC
56% MIA +3.5 @ BAL
53% CLE -6 v NYJ
69% DET -1 v WSH
52% JAX +4 v IND
52% TB -3 @ NO
55% NYG -1 v CAR
71% PIT +1 v NE
67% ATL +10.5 @ LAR
61% SEA +10 @ SF
82% CIN -7.5 @ DAL
69% HOU +10 @ DEN
54% AZ +6 @ LV
Be sure to check the NFL injury reports and monitor the betting lines as a number of teams suffered some key injuries in Week 1.
The big Thursday Night Football game matches undefeated Chargers and Chiefs in Kansas City. The AFC West is loaded, and these two teams star quarterbacks should put on a show. I bet over the total, and prefer the Chargers almost always this season as an underdog. Just an opinion and no graded pick or side bets yet.
NFL Week 2 Underdog Picks
Miami (+3.5) at Baltimore -Dolphins Moneyline +160
Jacksonville (+4) vs Indianapolis - Jaguars Moneyline +170
New Orleans (+2.5) vs Tampa Bay - Saints Moneyline +125
Check back Monday for any updates on the two MNF games.
Miami at Baltimore
The Ravens were not too impressive in their misleading 24-9 at New York against the lowly Jets last week. In fact, the Jets out-rushed, out-passed and out-gained the Ravens by more than 100 yards, and had a 24-13 first down advantage. Now the Ravens have some key injuries, but monitor the Dolphins offensive line updates this week as well. The Ravens managed just 274 yards offense last week, and the Dolphins offense and defense is better than the Jets. This total of 44.5 also seems a bit too high with both defenses the better units on the field?
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Colts struggled last week until a late rally and two TDs forced overtime, where they ended in a 20-20 tie with Houston with Indy missing a 42-yard field goal in OT. Jonathan Taylor can go off and the Colts did rush for 177 yards last week including overtime. But the Jaguars had chances to win last week and the offense did gain nearly 400 yards at a solid 6.2 yards per play. The Jaguars had 13 penalties in defeat, and we'll give the Jags another chance as an improving team playing their home opener against a division rival Colts team playing a second straight road game off a disappointing result.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
We're going to buy this to +3 and grade it accordingly on the Saints in another key early season division game. The line has moved from +3 to +2.5. The Bucs also travel for a second straight week, and Tampa's defense looks solid again and made the POS Cowboys look like a preseason version while knocking QB Dak Prescott out for many weeks. The Bucs offensive line showed some kinks, and Brady took some heat. The Saints are 4-0 against Brady and the Bucs, and new head coach Dennis Allen has done a solid job as previous defensive coordinator scheming against Brady and the Bucs. The Saints defensive front can create more pressure against immobile Brady, and the offense can play better and should as long as sometimes brain-cramp Jameis Winston doesn't turn the ball over. The Saints rally last week included 151 rushing yards and 385 total yards at 6.8 yards per play. We'll take those numbers this week and like our chances to win.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.