Identifying NFL Underdogs in Pursuit of Profit
Underdogs delivered again last week and are now 21-11 ATS this season. We chipped-in a 3-0 result in Week 2 point spread prognosis with three outright underdog winners on the Panthers, Cowboys and Ravens. Two of the sides were heavily bet by the public on the other side with favorites. Now 5-1 ATS this season with four outright winners, we'll look to add to our 'Dog log and 107-80 (57.2%) ATS log the past 4+ years picking only underdogs. We'll offer a brief update early this week with an underdog pick of significant interest.
I'm traveling and on a mountain retreat with friends, so check back and I'll try to add more later in the week as more injuries and updates are provided and time allows.
Early Season NFL Rushing Stats
Early rushing edges show NFL teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS including 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in Week 2. One of the teams that was run over at the point of attack was the Seattle Seahawks, who lost at home as near a TD favorite to Tennessee with the Titans rushing 212 yards on 40 attempts - second behind the Ravens 251 rushing yards in win over the Chiefs.
Conversely, teams that run the ball 23 times or less in a game are 7-15 SU and 4-18 ATS including 2-9 SU and 0-11 ATS in Week 2.
Look for edges at the point of attack and project rushing advantages and you'll have a basic fundamental advantage and head start in your weekly handicapping.
So we play against the Seahawks this week at winless Minnesota, who should and/or could very easily be 2-0. You think Minnesota would be an underdog if that was the case? No, and Seattle should not be favored this week on the road against the Vikings.
Minnesota plus the points, bet the moneyline too and add the Vikings to your teaser bets. This should be a shootout favoring the Vikings, and the total is up to 55 at leading online sportsbooks.
Be sure to check the NFL injury reports and monitor the betting lines as a number of teams report injuries each week and early in the season. That includes the Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa, who is out with fractured ribs in Miami's match-up in Las Vegas against the undefeated Raiders.
NFL Week 3 Underdog Picks
Minnesota (+2) vs Seattle - Vikings Moneyline +106 at BetOnline
No other official plays and picks, and I'll try to add an update on a short week and travel as able. Despite the projected rushing advantage for the Ravens at Detroit, I lean the Lions (+8.5) way as another ugly underdog that will gain little betting support this week.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay