Players can bet on where Wentz, Watson play in 2021
If you woke up miserable this morning wondering what you are going to do this Sunday, I have some good news for you. There indeed is some NFL football to wager upon. It is just not the typical type you might be used to.
Welcome to Unhappy Quarterback Proposition Wagering. A new type of betting being offered by many of the top preferred sportsbooks. It does not ask you to consider touchdowns or interceptions thrown by top NFL QB's, just try to figure out the next new uniform they will be wearing for their new team in the upcoming 2021 NFL season.
With Matthew Stafford already off the board, top names like Carson Wentz, currently of the Philadelphia Eagles and Deshaun Watson, soon to be an ex-Houston Texan are very much in play.
Believe it or not, if you look hard enough, a few major sportsbooks are posting odds of recent NFL Man of the Year QB Russell Wilson potentially leaving the Seattle Seahawks. But, no lines are available of any potential divorce from R&B superstar wife Ciara.
The wagering challenge is more difficult than you might think, and the odds reflect it. Looking back at the recent trade for Stafford, the Los Angeles Rams were not even listed with odds as one of the NFL teams interested. The following are the main quarterback targets in-play:
Likely the hottest betting interest is Carson Wentz, who seemingly cannot wait to leave an angry Philadelphia. The major problem is the Eagles asking price is way beyond what other NFL teams have been offering. More good news for bettors in keeping their opinions alive and the action in play. Here are the most current odds posted at BetOnline.ag
|Carson Wentz New Team||Odds|
|Washington Football Team||+900|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1800|
|New England Patriots||+2000|
|San Francisco 49ers||+2000|
|New York Jets||+2500|
Despite the shocker involving the Rams-Lions trade swapping Stafford and Jared Goff, a smart bettor would have to rule out most all longshot teams here and primarily guess upon either the Chicago Bears or Indianapolis Colts. A lean toward the Colts due to former Eagles offensive coordinator and current Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich having a big say in the decision.
The other factor being the Colts really wanted Stafford and Wentz is seen as the next best available fit given his age to replace recently retired QB Phillip Rivers.
If you must play a longshot perhaps the Denver Broncos at +800 or perhaps better shopping around the top online sportsbooks. Although Drew Lock showed some flashes last season, GM John Elway knows the 6 foot 5 Wentz has much more talent and could potentially regain earlier Pro Bowl form.
Again, the betting decision here more involves the high price the Eagles are demanding. Compared to the Stafford deal, no NFL teams are willing to part with three #1 first round picks for Wentz or anything close. But if they were, you could score with any team on the wagering list.
This is the Cadillac on the QB trading block, the Lexus, Beamer, whatever.
Over the past weekend, ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter reported that the Texans hiring their new head coach David Culley would have no effect on Watson changing his mind requesting a trade. The only difference seems to be in the odds movement in where he might land. Here are the most current odds from BetOnline.ag. Check your preferred sportsbooks for individual odds.
|Deshaun Watson New Team||Odds|
|New York Jets||+250|
|San Francisco 49ers||+800|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+1600|
|New England Patriots||+1600|
|Washington Football Team||+1600|
|New Orleans Saints||+4000|
|Green Bay Packers||+5000|
|New York Giants||+5000|
The size of the list indicates Watson's value as just about every NFL team covets him. It is quite interesting that the New York Jets are favorites, while retaining the upcoming NFL Draft’s #1 choice. That was thought to be a lock for Clemson's star QB Trevor Lawrence.
The Miami Dolphins at +350 as a close second choice might be more of a surprise. They were not even listed when the original lines for Watson's trade were originally released. Certainly not good for young QB Tua Tagovailoa's confidence, but perhaps a burst for perennial Dolphins back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Coming up fast are the San Francisco 49ers at +800, which might be a great price to get if you act quickly and favor the Niners as Watson's landing spot. It seems the 49ers are looking to move on from their often-injured QB Jimmy Garoppolo and willing to make the Texans a good deal.
Quarterback Changes, like the Kentucky Derby Futures
Guessing upon quarterback changes seems akin to handicapping the future book for the next Kentucky Derby. Much can change every day that a bettor has no control over and does not truly have inside information of what is going on behind the scenes.
In the case involving Wentz, it is likely he will join either the Bears or Colts, but factors involving other teams who are not involved could also change the picture.
As indicted, many teams would consider Watson as their franchise QB, given his age (25, same as Patrick Mahomes), football talent and opportunity to work with a group of top receivers. The major dividing line is trading price and salary cap the new team knows they would be forecasting to get him.
Despite the rumors, I would not recommend betting on Russell Wilson leaving the Seattle Seahawks for any other NFL team. Like the Kentucky Derby horses, you do not get your money refunded if they do not enter the starting gate for the Run for the Roses.
Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.