FairwayJay's NFL underdog picks for Week 5
The Sunday slate for Week 5 includes a second-straight early kickoff from London. We're not including the NY Giants (+8) as an underdog pick against Green Bay, although QB Daniel Jones (ankle) will start it was announced Friday. The Giants have a number of other players on the injury report and unavailable, so monitor the Week 5 injury report for all the players and games this week.
The NFL betting lines continue to adjust along with the totals at the leading online sportsbooks. But even with late week picks and not always getting the best lines on our plays, we've continued to win. Our fourth straight winning results in Week 4 was 2-1 with two more outright underdog winners. Two easy winners on the Chiefs and Cardinals, and a loser on the Jaguars, who had a 14-0 lead but couldn't hold on. That's what happens when you have five turnovers and a 5-1 turnover margin.
Turnovers impact games and ATS results more than any other statistic. Teams that are -3 more greater in turnover margin in a game this season are 0-12 SU/ATS. Teams exactly -2 in turnover margin are 2-10 SU/ATS. I track turnover stats, and historically teams -3 more greater in turnover margin in a game have covered the spread just 7% of the time. Putting a positive spin on turnovers, teams that are plus (+3) or greater in turnover margin in a game cover the spread approximately 93% of the time, and SU winners are similar. We're still waiting for a team in 2022 to cover the spread or win when they are minus (-3) or greater in turnover margin. Last year, teams +3 or greater in turnover margin went 44-2 SU and 43-3 ATS.
So the 2022 record posting only underdog picks at OSGA is now 14-7 ATS with 13 outright winners. That follows last years record-breaking 28-12 ATS and 70% season. The 5+ year record posting weekly NFL underdog picks on these pages is now 144-98 ATS (59.6%) with 81 outright winners. Imagine, and it's all been provided for free as bonus cash here at Offshore Gaming Association.
We've had a higher volume of plays this season through four weeks, and sending along just one underdog pick in Week 5. The Browns should also be bet on the moneyline, and added to your teaser, live betting and ATS contest picks for additional cash-in opportunities.
NFL Week 5 Underdog Picks
Cleveland (+2) vs LA Chargers - Browns moneyline +105 at Bovada
Los Angeles at Cleveland
We're going to rush to the window with the Browns as home 'Dog. We'll be updating rushing guidelines and and more rushing articles and stats soon, but we've been outlining these in some of our NFL Picks already this season including when going 6-2 ATS in Week 3 with six outright winners. See more below for current YTD stats on key rushing numbers. The Browns project to have the biggest rushing advantage on the Week 5 card, and rank as the best rushing offense in the NFL by Pro Football Focus with a top-5 rush offense DVOA. Cleveland runs the ball and should surpass 150 yards rushing in this game, and no surprise if Nick Chubb and even Kareem Hunt run wild for more. Teams that run for at least 150 yards in a game this season are 18-5-1 SU and 17-6-1 ATS. (when their opponent does not - the Falcons and Browns both did last week, 175+). Chubb leads the AFC in rushing with 459 yards - just 4 yards behind the Giants Saquon Barkley.
The Browns are rushing for an average of 187 yards per game - second in the NFL. The Chargers rush for 64 YPG - dead last in the NFL. The Browns also run the ball at least 37 times per game on average for 5.0 yards per rush. The Chargers 23 rusher per game at a league-low 2.7 yards per rush. The match-ups dictate more success for the Browns in this match-up, as Chargers star defensive end Joey Bosa is out now (torn groin) for at least two months, and the Chargers allow 5.4 yards per rush - second worst in the NFL. The Chargers also all the third-most points per play. Only turnovers, unexpected/stupid penalties or very poor play from QB Jacoby Brissett can hijack this projected winner. With Chargers QB Justin Herbert still hurting from his rib injury, we should rush to the window and cash another outright underdog winner on the home 'Dog Browns in the Dawg pound.
Rushing Stats in 2022
Through 4 weeks of games played this 2022 season, teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 30-11-1 SU and 28-12-2 ATS (70%). That's slightly below the historical average of 74-75% that has never finished below 70% ATS in more than 15 years of tracking. Remember that when the media and other pundits say it's much more a passing league and you have to pass more in today's modern NFL. Add in this stat. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are 30-10-1 SU and ATS this season. Teams that run the ball less than 23 times are just 6-31 SU/ATS.
This is just another way to handicap games, and use basic stats to project edges in your match-up analysis and handicapping.
Currently, these teams average at least 30 rush attempts per game: Eagles (38), Browns (37), Bears (34), Giants (33), Falcons (33), 49ers (31).
These teams are rushing the ball less than 23 times per game: Dolphins (20), Rams (20), Buccaneers (21), Texans (21), Panthers (21), Jets (21), Saints (22), Vikings (22). Seahawks (22).
We'll be back for Week 6 and the early lookahead line favors Washington (-1) at Chicago Thursday. We'll be monitoring injuries and those teams performances in Week 5 action as the Bears have the better running game and yards per play defense. But Chicago does rank last in rush defense currently allowing 183 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per rush. And QB Justin Fields play and lack of passing success is still a concern.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.
FairwayJay's NFL underdog picks for Week 5