FairwayJay's NFL underdog picks for Week 4
The Sunday slate for Week 4 kicks off the month of October. And just one team remains undefeated - the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0). That's after the Cincinnati Bengals knocked out QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins 27-15 Thursday night. I bet on the Bengals, who were favored, and provided added insight and betting info in my NFL update for Forbes.
The Week 3 results turned out very well for us with a record eight NFL underdog picks for the week. The 6-2 ATS results included six outright winners, making us big Week 3 winners along with the leading online sportsbooks. Once again the public and majority of bettors rode the favorites. That included some of the most bet teams that lost as the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills blew it on the road. That was good for us with picks and bets on their opponents, the Colts and Dolphins. I won't get into a lengthy stats report, but know we were fortunate to win with Miami as the Dolphins were outgained by the Bills 477-212 yards, 31-15 first downs and a staggering 90 offensive plays to just 39 for the Dolphins. The Bills also had 40 minutes of possession time and just 1 turnover. How the f** did the Bills lose?
So the 2022 record posting only underdog picks at OSGA is now 12-6 ATS with 11 outright winners. That follows last years record-breaking 28-12 ATS and 70% season. The 5+ year record posting weekly NFL underdog picks on these pages is now 142-97 ATS (59.4%) with 79 outright winners. Imagine, and it's all been provided for free as bonus cash here at Offshore Gaming Association.
When I looked at the NFL Week 4 card and evaluated into the late week, I thought I might have one underdog pick this week or even pass. Passing isn't an option I determined, and I should be able to have enough confidence in at least one NFL underdog, correct?
I won't get into additional details and recap, but know that I log NFL box scores and stats into a weekly document, and track data to also discuss and review additional handicapping stats and situations. The Dolphins situation on Thursday night was one of the worst a team could have been in, and one of the best for bettors who have a good feel for the game beyond just crunching numbers and evaluating stats.
After further review and additional research, studying stats and situations and game planning (listen up Kyler Murray), I'm going to add some contrary underdog picks, including on the Cardinals. Our goal here is to chip-in additional winners so you can continue to profit from the experience. We're firing for the green and shooting for our fourth straight winning week to start the 2022 NFL season.
Be sure to check the NFL injury reports and monitor the betting lines and weather. Note it's likely raining in Philadelphia Sunday, and the total has been dropping. The Jaguars and Eagles defenses have also been delivering. It might be a top cash bonus that QB Jameis Winston is now doubtful to play for the Saints against the Vikings in London Sunday. Vikings should be a bet, or at least an in-game live betting option for the extra early game Sunday. The two leading MVP favorites square off in Baltimore, where QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a 3-point home underdog against QB Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. I passed on the 'Dog, and have no regrets.
NFL Week 4 Underdog Picks
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Philadelphia - Jaguars moneyline +230 at BetOnline
Arizona (+1) at Carolina - Cardinals moneyline -101 at BookMaker
Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay - Chiefs moneyline -105 at Bovada
Jacksonville at Philadelphia
Philadelphia has been the best and most impressive NFC team through three weeks of the season. The Eagles join the Jaguars as the two biggest movers up the NFL power ratings, as Jacksonville has been the best and most impressive team in the AFC the past two weeks (not the Bills). The Jaguars and Eagles both average more than 30 rushing attempts per game. That's a positive profile I outlined in the Week 3 picks and insights. And we got ahead of the market and improved play of the Jaguars in their Week 2 win over the Colts, 24-0. We had to back off on the Jaguars last week with our huge card already full, and the uncertain status of QB Justin Herbert as the betting line dived and then rose again before kickoff. Regardless, the Jaguars crushed the Chargers 38-10 on the road and the Jags outrushed the Chargers 151-26. You know by now how that turns out. But did you know the Jaguars currently feature the leagues top rush defense? Jacksonville is allowing just 55 rushing yards per game - exactly half of the Eagles 110 rushing yards allowed per game. The Jaguars allow 3.1 yards per rush, and have faced Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler with two offensive lines that PFF rated in the top third of the league. The Eagles are allowing an NFC-worst 5.4 yards per rush, but Philly does have perhaps the top offensive line in the league which has allowed QB Jalen Hurts to excel so far this season. The Eagles are 3-0 with wins over the Lions, Vikings and Commanders. Any of those teams very impressive yet? The correct answer is No, but the media and sportsbooks have made the Eagles the NFC favorite before October. Market perception of these two teams is still dichotomous, yet it's the Jaguars and QB Trevor Lawrence that have been among the NFL’s best on a per-play efficiency basis to start the year. The Jaguars are forging a new identity under their head coach Doug Peterson, who returns to Philadelphia where he was head coach for 5 years and brought a Super Bowl championship to the city of Brotherly Love. We just might fall in love with the Jaguars after this week with another outright winner.
Arizona at Carolina
We might regret this with a questionable coach and carefree and careless quarterback who needs better training and study habits. Both the Cardinals and Panthers are 1-2 and each team has scored 62 points with below average yards per play and efficiency. But the Cardinals have the higher upside with QB Kyler Murray, and did you know Arizona is 7-0 SU/ATS as a road 'Dog during the regular season in their last 7 road games as the puppy? Betting on the 'Come' understanding too that the Cardinals have played the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams to start the season - all playoff teams from last season. The Panthers have looked lousy playing the Browns, Giants and Saints - all sub-par teams themselves at this point. The Panthers won last week as one of our six outright 'Dog winners. I bet 'em early and on the moneyline, but it was not an impressive win despite really never being in doubt. More mistakes by Saints QB Winston and a 3-0 turnover margin favoring the Panthers helped, but Carolina only gained 293 yards - their third straight game under 300 yards offense. Baker Mayfield has completed just 52% of his passes, and he and the Panthers offense hasn't shown they can take advantage of a weaker defensive secondary like the Cardinals yet. Mayfield ranks No. 29 of 32 starting quarterbacks in QB DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). The Cardinals have not looked good so far, but last week's 20-12 loss to the Rams saw Arizona out-gain LA 365-339 and run 81 plays to 46 for the Rams while controlling the ball for 34 minutes. Murray and his minions lacked efficiency, but if Arizona plays their Cards right like they did in the second half comeback to hit the Jackpot in Las Vegas in Week 2, then Arizona will be returning home 2-2 ahead of next week's big game against the Eagles. Fly Cardinals Fly.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
The Chiefs took tons of cash last week and burned bettors money at the online sportsbooks. Not ours of course, as we cashed in on the Colts outright 'Dog win over KC. Same with the Packers, as we bagged some cash betting against the Buccaneers in the Packers wire-to-wire ugly Dog win, 14-12. Brady and Bucs offense is dreadful at this point, averaging less than 300 yards per game and just 4.8 yards per play. Tampa Bay's offense ranks No. 27 at Football Outsiders, and Brady is below average in DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement). That's not what Tommy terrific had in mind when he un-retired to keep playing at age 45. Fortunately for the Bucs and Brady, the Tampa defense is near dominant and can cover up the offenses shortcomings. Well, maybe not this week with today's top QB Patrick Mahomes, who ranks No. 2 in QB DVOA and No. 4 in QBR. The Chiefs go from a steamed up 6-point favorite to an underdog. How rare is that under Reid/Mahomes? We see a market over-reacting (again) after the Chiefs were originally favored over the Buccaneers. Under the hood further is the Chiefs stronger special teams than the Buccaneers, and the Bucs have won while creating turnovers and sitting +4 in TO margin this season. Let's trust Reid, Mahomes and the Chiefs to have a few surprises to counter the Buccaneers, and make more plays in victory. Fortunately for Brady and the Bucs as well is that they play in the NFC South. Now they play the best in the AFC West.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more gambling insights.