Super Bowl 55 Betting - Market Report Shows Kansas City Chiefs Are Most Popular Bets
Last week we provided a Super Bowl 55 betting primer that included sportsbook insights from leading online sportsbooks. Despite COVID-19 keeping so many people sidelined and out of work or limited, sports betting remains brisk. Especially for the Big Game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs (-3).
Leading online sportsbook Heritage Sports reported in the past week that "We’ve seen volume almost 40% higher than over last season, so we expect that this Super Bowl will again exceed that figure."
Super Bowl Market Report
The betting data from leading online sportsbooks is still favoring the Kansas City Chiefs. I've corresponded with a number of other sportsbook operators this week like OSGA Elite rated William Hill. Director of Trading Nick Bogdanovich said this about the point spread and Chiefs.
“I think it’ll close 3, I don’t see us getting to 3.5. That’d be my bet,” Bogdanovich said. “We’re still high on the Chiefs with the points, but I’m not really surprised the Bucs are getting most of the moneyline bets."
Kansas City is listed at -165 on the moneyline, whereas Tampa Bay is +145 to pull off the upset.
At William Hill, the Chiefs have captured 66% of the total number of tickets and 76% of the total dollars wagered among all spread bets in Super Bowl 55. That's highlighted by a Nevada bettor placing $520,000 on Chiefs -3 (-120) for a total potential payout of $953,333.35.
But that's chump change to the $2.3 million bet that BetMGM took on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5). At -115 odds, that bet would net $2 million. Of course, Mattress Mack is back at it after soaking in his bed in last year's Super Bowl with his bet on the 49ers. Now he's betting against the Chiefs again with a $3.46 million bet on the Buccaneers (+3.5). The bet was placed in Colorado on a mobile app.
Still, the Chiefs are the popular side of most public bettors. One leading online sportsbook representative sent me a message that said the sportsbook has more than 85% of the spread money wagered on Kansas City.
“We’ve had significantly more action on the Chiefs side, as we’ve seen all week.”
Super Bowl Props and Picks
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I don't have a strong position on Super Bowl 55 like I did when betting on the Philadelphia Eagles as underdog in Super Bowl 52. You can make a pretty good case for both the Buccaneers and Chiefs. Tampa Bay has the stronger defense and running game, which I often support and talk about throughout the season in my weekly underdog picks.
Adding to the support for Tampa Bay is that Kansas City will play with two backup offensive tackles. The Bucs have made changes and improvements on defense since losing to the Chiefs 27-24 in Week 12. But the Chiefs offense is still dynamic and lethal. Head coach Andy Reid has the edge calling plays and is especially strong with extra time to prepare. I also prefer today's top QB Patrick Mahomes over the 43-year-old GOAT, Tom Brady. Consider too that the Chiefs are 16-1 SU in their last 17 games away from home with no victory by less than 3 points. The Chiefs are also 7-0 SU vs greater than .500 opponents this season winning the line of scrimmage by +155 yards per game. I favor Kansas City to win Super Bowl 55.
Among the most popular bets are Super Bowl props. And of those, the coin toss is one of the most popular bets with fans looking to start the game off with a winning bet. Super Bowl MVP voting is popular, but the Player to Score the First Touchdown draws much interest.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (-105) is the favorite to win MVP, and he's the most popular player in prop bets. A majority of bettors take the over in Mahomes props knowing he passed for season highs in Attempts (49), Completions (37) and Yards (462) in the Chiefs 27-24 Week 12 win at Tampa Bay. But there are risks in all the prop bets, and injury is the greatest one when betting Over. That was the case when Mahomes was injured and bettors got concussed on their Mahomes 'over' prop bets in the playoff win over the Cleveland Browns.
I did make a bet Over 40.5 passes for Mahomes, despite the risk. I reviewed more data, understand two starting offensive tackles are out for Kansas City, and still believe coach Andy Reid will call plenty of passes including short passes and screens in lieu of a rushing attack against the Bucs strout run defense. An analytics contact sent me more info to support the Over passing attempts for Mahomes.
A few other chip-ins I bet include, Under on Bucs WR Antonio Brown receiving yards and receptions.
Now I had this prop passed along to me for another consideration to bet. Total Combined First Downs: Under 48.5
A big number for sure considering the Chiefs have played 18 games this season and just one time did their combined total of first downs reach 49. The Tampa Bay Bucs have played 19 games and just 3 made it over this number. While scoring was at a record high this season at 12,692 points and 49.58 points per game, it's still worth noting that 48 of the previous 54 Super Bowls failed to reach 49 first downs, including 30-of-36 since Super Bowl 19.
Three of the last four Super Bowls have had higher totals of 49 or greater and three of them finished with at least 51 points scored. But only one game had more than 48 first downs, and that went to overtime in Super Bowl 51. New England made a historic comeback to pull off a miracle win and cover over Atlanta, 34-28. Much to my dismay.
I provide lots of prop bet consideration and write-ups for a number of leading online sportsbooks and sites. Time to pick off a few more to bet as Super Bowl 55 nears.
FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay