Prop betting tips for Super Bowl Sunday
It's that time again. When a twenty-week regimen of football wagering behavior seems to go out the window for the most seasoned handicapper. The Super Bowl is upon us this weekend. That means serious study focusing on plays involving the game line, the total over/under and the temptation to wager upon the menu of potentially 1000 or so proposition (prop) wagers that line the web pages of all top sportsbooks.
The Super Bowl is our New Year's Eve. The one day (or night) that all rules seem to go out the window for many regarding executing logical decisions involving sports and odds calculation. Is it possible maintaining a consistent pattern of discipline when we ask ourselves to forecast how long it will take Jazmine Sullivan to sing the Star-Spangled Banner? Or how many times Gisele Bundchen will be shown on the telecast.
By the way, in case you're interested, Bovada has Over 1.5 listed at -240 and I'm hoping the favorite wins with a wardrobe malfunction.
The point is opposed to the NFL regular season this is the one time that wagering can be extremely spontaneous. Throw in the fact that “in-play betting” has become increasingly popular at all the top sportsbooks and it is a potential recipe for disaster. We must come up with a PLAN to ration out a strategy that focuses upon other abnormal distractions. Extra food, alcohol and people in the house that normally are not present during a typical 11 hours of NFL Sunday betting action.
The following are suggestions on not who to bet upon for Super Bowl LV but "how to bet" this Sunday, maintaining a proven strategic plan of reasonable order. Follow these steps "prop-erly":
Make the Game Line and/or Total your Entrée
The prop bet itself is a huge moneymaker for all sportsbooks. It is tilted in the way oddsmakers know the public will prefer, therefore it usually is a bad value. As with any other NFL Sunday, try to keep most of your wagering funds pointed toward the main objective, the Super Bowl game line and/or over-under total. Only if you must, include a parlay on these type bets.
It should also be mentioned that most preferred sportsbooks, only allow a limited number of props to be parlayed. Check with each individual book as to which prop wagers can be included in parlays. As a rule, it is a bad idea to try this farsighted idea.
Do not overindulge with too many prop wagers
The volume of prop wagers offered each year is overwhelming. BetOnline, YouWager, Bookmaker and all the top online sportsbooks continue to set records annually offering the public creative ways to wager on the Super Bowl.
One of my favorites from Bovada, "Will a fan run onto the field during the game?"
If they do, hope they are not wearing a Proud Boys or Antifa shirt. No parlay bet offered if they will or will not be shot by stadium security.
Lean toward "No and Unders" on select Props
A majority of Super Bowl wagering is filled with more amateur and inexperienced bettors. These people do not like to be eliminated on any type of wagering supposition. Nor do they want to be eliminated early before the game is completed. They more follow a positive mindset, making for something to occur rather than not to occur.
They want to bet Overs because they are psychologically biased toward a fun, higher-scoring type of scenario. Thus, not much fun rooting for an Under.
Professional sportsbooks realize this and slant their lines accordingly. Traditionally, pro bettors can spot these opportunities and line movements indicate it. Look for potentially opportunities where there could be value wagering upon a "No" or "Under" the offered prop to occur.
Follow Line Movements
Unlike game lines and over/under totals, there are is no prop live-odds page that keeps an ongoing up to date record of movement. However, if you want to do the work you can employ the old-fashioned way with a notepad and spreadsheet. Check back every few hours to see if there is a discernable difference in a specific prop wager. If Tom Brady’s completion attempts should move from say 39.5 to 42, it means that a few sharps have recognized the opportunity and are taking advantage. You can as well before it becomes a disadvantage.
Please try to keep your wagers concentrated on NFL football
The Super Bowl also means the opportunity to bet on "wacky" props that do not focus on football whatsoever. Wagers deciding the coin toss, the color of the Gatorade poured on the winning coach, will Donald Trump be mentioned or not, etc.
It is interesting that the various U.S. state wagering game boards currently do not allow these. They are offered by the various online sportsbooks for good reason. They are quite profitable. Look for changes in the legislature for these states and for upcoming new U.S. states to allow these for upcoming Super Bowls.
For wagering purposes, think of these non-football props like eating a big bowl of Cheetos or Nacho Verde Tostitos. They may taste good but they’re just not going to come right tomorrow and are best avoided.
Always Shop for the Best Line
The most important prop rule of all. I repeat this twenty times per year and never get tired of saying it.
From buying a new car to a new computer, are you just going to march down to the first store and take whatever price they are offering? The prop wager is no different than the traditional game line or total.
Once you select your prop wagers from the hundreds offered, shop around the list of preferred sportsbooks to identify the best value. You would be surprised that often a wide gap difference can be located toward a potential win. The bonus might be uncovering an opportunity to join-up for free, take advantage of an introductory offer, etc.
The best news is the Super Bowl does not kick off until 6:35 PM ET on Sunday. You have all day to discipline yourself to creating the most effective PLAN and wager "prop-erly".
Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, including previews and picks from Glenn, click here.