NFL Week 8 Underdog Predictions and Picks

A third straight winning week for betting favorites in NFL Week 8 as favorites went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS. Our NFL underdog picks went 1-1 ATS with an outright winner Monday night on the Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) with a last second field goal to win 17-15 over the Los Angeles Chargers. That snapped an 0-7 run on our NFL underdog picks posted at Off Shore Gaming Assocation ahead of NFL Week 8 underdog picks. The 2024 posted record is now 11-10 ATS this season with 7 outright winners. 

Now in our 8th straight year posting NFL underdog picks at OSGA, the record is 201-154 ATS, just under 57% ATS with 117 outright winners.

I didn't get a Monday Night Football article posted on OSGA for Week 8, but added one in Forbes and suggest you follow as our player props picks have been crushing and another winner on Cardinals RB James Conner in Week 8 Monday Night Football. While I correspond with other colleagues and utilize some advance stats and metrix, I interpret the data and decide who to pick and bet. But I also chipped-in a best bet winner Over the total in the Ravens 41-31 win over the Buccaneers, but missed our first player prop in weeks when Mike Evans was injured and left the game without returning after 3 early targets and a touchdown.   

NFL Week 8 Odds

Pro football odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. 

Bye weeks are on bye this week. Full 16 game schedule.

Early bet count

81% MIN -3 @ LAR
69% DET -11 v TEN
54% BAL -9 @ CLE
80% GB -4.5 @ JAX
63% HOU -5.5 v IND
71% AZ +3 @ MIA
55% ATL -2.5 @ TB
50% CHI -1.5 @ WAS
56% NYJ -7.5 @ NE
63% BUF -3 @ SEA
70% NO +7.5 @ LAC
55% CIN…

— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 23, 2024

The popular favorites are taking more bets again in Week 8 with the Vikings on Thursday, along with the Packers, Broncos and Steelers. 

Also, ahead of Week 8 NFL action, be sure to check out my weekly college football Top 25 report and picks. This week I also chip-in an update with stats and information you can bet on for the strongest and most balanced offensive teams.  

Week 8 Underdog Opinions and Considerations

I'll update Thursday on whether we add the Rams as an official underdog picks, but it's an Opinion now as we evaluate the Week 8 injury reports for all teams and note that Rams WR Cooper Kupp is expected to play vs. the Vikings. Lines have been moving again early week and some of best numbers gone as things change quickly in the NFL with injuries, odds and adjustments. This week there are also 3 double-digit favorites and there had been just 2 the entire season to date. 

So be willing to change your opinion, but also stay grounded and not too influenced with recency bias and pay attention to lookahead lines. and also the bye week schedule with rest advantages and disadvantages. The Bears and Cowboys enter Week 8 off a bye. 

Update Thursday: Short week travel for Vikings (5-1), who come off a last second loss to division rival Lions in an even stat game (391-383). The Vikings 7.4 yards per play was a week-high. Minnesota has played a top-5 strength of schedule, and have the stronger offense and defense in this matchup vs. the Rams (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS), who were fortunate last Sunday at home in a 20-15 win while being outgained 317-259 but were gifted 4 Raiders turnovers and 10 penalties. Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell worked under Rams coach Sean McVay, who were also off a bye into last week's game and still performed poorly against a bad Raiders side. Thought I would be on the home 'Dog in this situation, but the stats, schedule and strengths say otherwise. Pass.

NFL Betting Tip - In competitively lined NFL games (6 or less), teams are hitting 89% ATS this season (80+ games & 90% ATS historically) if they win the game SU. Pick the straight up winner in those contests and you'll cover the spread 90% of the time. Which is why if you bet the 'Dog, or Rams, you should add to your profits playing a portion of your wager on the moneyline. 

Bet on the NFL at one of these Elite-rated sportsbooks!

Los Angeles (+3) vs. Minnesota - Rams Moneyline +130
Cleveland (+9.5) vs. Baltimore - Browns Moneyline +350
Jacksonville (+4) vs. Green Bay - Jaguars Moneyline +170
Indianapolis (+5) at Houston - Colts Moneyline +195
Arizona (+3.5) at Miami - Cardinals Moneyline +150
Philadelphia (+2.5) at Cincinnati - Eagles Moneyline +115 
Seattle (+3) vs. Buffalo - Seahawks Moneyline +135
Washington (+2.5) vs. Chicago - Commanders Moneyline +125 
Las Vegas (+10) vs. Kansas City - Raiders Moneyline +400
Carolina (+10) at Denver - Panthers Moneyline +400
Dallas (+4) at San Francisco - Cowboys Moneyline +175 

Home Underdogs Struggle

I also note that home underdogs are just 9-25 SU this season and a poor 12-21-1 ATS. That should change to the better, and perhaps starts this week with 8 home 'Dogs! Commanders Rookie of the Year favorite QB Jayden Daniels (ribs) is out against the Bears and the line flipped to Chicago as road favorite. Quarterback Marcus Mariota will start for Washington. 

“A good number right now for Jayden Daniels is 3.5 to 4 points,” a leading online sportsbook said about the point spread difference from Daniels to Mariota. “Marcus Mariota is a serviceable backup, but compared to Daniels, the difference would be around 3.5 points, but I would lean more towards 4.”

Daniels week-to-week injury status has tightened the Rookie of the Year odds with Daniels (-115) now just a slight favorite ahead of Bears QB Caleb Williams (+115). Fans were looking forward to that key matchup this week, but will have to wait to see the two young quarterbacks and this year's No. 1 and No. 2 NFL draft picks square off another time. 

Incredible stat: Since the start of Week 5 this season, road favorites are on a 15-0 SU/ATS run. The last home underdog to cover the spread was the Raiders (+2.5) late afternoon game in Week 5 in a 20-16 win over the Browns. 

Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 8 Underdog Picks

Indianapolis (+5) at Houston - Colts Moneyline +195
Arizona (+4.5) at Miami - Cardinals Moneyline +175
Tampa Bay (+2.5 / 3, -120) vs. Atlanta - Buccaneers Moneyline +125
Philadelphia (+2.5 / +3, -120) at Cincinnati - Eagles Moneyline +125 
Seattle (+3) vs. Buffalo - Seahawks Moneyline +135
Washington (+3) vs. Chicago - Commanders Moneyline +135 
Las Vegas (+9.5 / 10) vs. Kansas City - Raiders Moneyline +380
Carolina (+11) at Denver - Panthers Moneyline +450

Okay, Rams (+3) won outright Thursday to snap 0-15 SU/ATS run by home underdogs since Week 5. We considered strongly and passed, but now adding more ugly 'Dogs Friday and potentially more with a big Sunday card and still considering Giants Monday too. So check back through the weekend for underdog picks and additional information you can bet on as we analyze more matchups, stats, ATS and injury reports noting that we're even giving the Panthers a chance with QB Bryce Young returning and line steaming at Mile High. Ugly indeed. Two games take +3 (-120) as available and tease Bucs, Eagles. Others too. 

Running game projections and rushing edges (and some dominant) include Lions over Titans, Ravens over Browns, Eagles over Bengals, Chiefs over Raiders, Broncos over Panthers, Niners over Cowboys, Steelers over Giants. Teams that out-rush opponents by 30+ yards in a game this season are covering point spread 81% ATS. Teams that run the ball 30+ times in a game are 84% ATS. We'll still go with ungliest 'Dogs Panthers and Raiders this week. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.