Using Rushing Statistics As An NFL Betting Tool

Each week during the NFL season, I provide my NFL underdog picks on these pages with a focus only on underdogs. Now in our 8th year posting those complimentary NFL picks at Off Shore Gaming Association, the record is 199-147 for a 57.5% ATS success rate and more than 110 outright winners as Fairways followers continue to profit from the experience. Those top of the leaderboard results include 9-3 ATS this season following a 3-1 ATS 'Dog log in Week 1, and 4-1-1 ATS in Week 2 and then 2-1 ATS in Week 3 where rushing game dominance prevailed.

One of our edges in handicapping while picking and betting NFL point spread winners has been the ability to isolate and interpret data using running game stats that have helped us rush to the window when wagering. 

Week 3 Rushing Dominance Leads To 14-1 SU/ATS Results 

As noted, I write about this annually, often as more NFL games are played. But as I went through each Week 3 game and boxscore, and loaded the stats into my proprietary data base, it became a record week of running game dominance. For the week, 15 of the 16 games saw one team outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards. Only the final Monday Night game of the MNF doubleheader failed to produce that notable rushing edge, although the Commanders did run the ball 32 times for 108 yards and the Bengals 124 yards on 20 attempts. Those stronger rushing teams with a 30+ yard edge went 14-1 SU/ATS in Week 3.

For the year, teams with that rushing edge of 30+ yards in a game are 32-8 SU and 31-8-1 ATS (79.5%), which is above the historical results of 74-76% including last year at 74% and the last 6 years overall nearly 76%.  

My weekly #NFL boxscore data & notes SU/ATS. Rushing stats includes tracking for 20+ yrs & consistent results. Must interpret data & have ability to protect matchups, edges & apply. Record Week 3 rushing w/30+ yds edge & those teams going 14-1 SU/ATS. 30+ rushes/game 10-1 SU/ATS pic.twitter.com/KrhcvYTXeB

— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) September 25, 2024

Another key indicator to winning and cashing in ATS is how many times a team runs the football. The more the better which usually implies controlling the line of scrimmage, ball and clock, and better down and distance to create more play calling options. Teams that run the ball (rushing attempts) at least 30 times in a NFL game are 26-5 SU and 23-7-1 ATS (77%) this season, including 10-1 SU/ATS in Week 3 as running games dominated the results. That 77% ATS success rate is right at last year's results over 18 weeks in the regular season, but historically greater than 80% ATS including 82% the past 6 years. Teams that run the ball less than 23 times per game are 4-27 SU and 6-27 ATS after Week 3 saw these poor rushing teams go 0-12 SU/ATS.  

While I've been tracking this data for two decades and loading weekly boxscore stats into spread sheets, note that I learned this craft from a longtime East coast handicapper I followed who provided my fundamental blueprint and mentorship into matchups and point of attack play in college and pro football. It's just one way to isolate matchup edges, but a proven and profitable profile. However, interpreting data and projecting stats and how game flow and matchup edges may play out is a learned craft that comes with experience. No different that my pro level poker play that has been created with practice, patience and understanding position and opponents. These fundamental principles apply, and the ability to learn, grow and adjust to changes including today's analytics, EPA, DVOA and other metrics assists you in becoming a well-rounded handicapper and sharpens your tool box when betting. 

While you've heard the NFL can be a "copy cat" league, make no mistake that many online sportsbooks copy other sportsbooks betting lines without creating their own power ratings and spreads. Handicappers may indeed copy other's picks or work, but hopefully give credit to those who do the work or as requested. The proof is also in the pudding, as Fairways Football Forecast point spread prognosis results speak for themselves with greater than 57% ATS posting only NFL Underdog Picks at OSGA the past 7+ years including a 70% season in 2021. Those results followed 8-straight winning seasons with documented NFL sides and select totals sending out late week.  

As the 2024 NFL season moves forward, I'll add select rushing stats and projections into my weekly underdog picks with select games and rushing projections. I'll often stay off a game or side due to those projections, which I did in Week 2 not including the Raiders (+8.5) as a Pick but still an Opinion while mentioning the Ravens would hold a solid rushing edge. Baltimore did indeed outrush the Raiders as I noted 151-27 with Las Vegas only running the ball 17 times - a longtime losing ATS situation and a very fortunate win and cover for the Silver and Black. The Ravens had 11 penalties for a week-high 109 yards and blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead in defeat. 

So more to consider as you break down the matchups and handicap the AFC and NFC teams, schedules and odds each week. Here's to more ways you can learn while you earn, and watch, wager and win to profit from the experience. 

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.