NFL Week 7 Predictions and Underdog Picks
The NFL Week 7 schedule has 3 division games including the big NFC North first place showdown between the Detroit Lions (4-1) and Minnesota Vikings (5-0) in Minneapolis. The 2024 Super Bowl LVIII rematch is also on the Week 7 schedule with the Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) at San Francisco 49ers (3-3). We'll chip-in more NFL Week 7 underdog picks on Friday and through the weekend with inital Opinions and Considerations for our picks below. A correction is in order after Fairway's shanks as we sh*t the bed, along with the New York Jets on Week 6 Monday Night Football in a 23-20 loss as home 'Dog to the Buffalo Bills that dropped us to 0-3 for our Week 6 NFL Underdog Picks and 10-9 ATS this season.
We mentioned in our Week 6 picks that we bet the Chargers as a favorite, and road favorites went 9-0 SU/ATS in Week 6 for the worst-ever result for home underdogs in NFL history. It was also a historical week for leading online sportsbooks, who suffered a Week 6 blood bath which I covered in Forbes as part of the 13-1 SU and 11-2 ATS (or 10-2-1 ATS, Ravens -6.5 to -7 close in 7-point win) results. I graded the Bears as favorite, and Chicago was favored all week until game day when money poured in on the wrong side Jacksonville Jaguars in London and the Bears buried the Jags 35-16 while out-rushing the Jaguars 152-68.
Week 6 Rushing Dominance
Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards in Week 6 games went 9-0 SU/ATS and now 32-8 SU and 33-7 ATS this season. Teams that outrush opponents by at least 30 years in a game (9-1 SU/ATS in Week 6) are 56-13 SU and 55-12-2 ATS (82%) - above the historical 74-75% average. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in went 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in Week 6 and now 64% ATS this season. Teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game went 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in Week 6 and now covering just 15% of games this season.
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Monday Night Football
Week 7 features the third Monday Night Football doubleheader this season with the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2), and Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4). I'll add more on those games as I did last week with an east player prop winner on Jets RB Breece Hall, who had 45 receiving yards at halftime and 56 for the game more than doubling his 25.5 player prop.
As I've noted many times, picking spread winners in the NFL, and especially late week, is far tougher and very, very few win long term. We've managed to post nearly 57% ATS winners now in our 8th year posting only NFL Underdog Picks with the Betting Scene at Off Shore Gaming Association reporting our 70% season (28-12 ATS) in 2021. That's all in the past, and in the what have you done for me lately mantra of NFL fans and bettors, our record and results took a big hit the past two weeks.
NFL Week 7 Odds
Check out the popular favorites again in Week 7 with BetOnline reporting on last week's NFL results and the popularity of favorites in early Week 7 betting.
"Thursday night was a big winner for the public. Sunday was a record losing day for the house in the history of @BetOnline_ag," said Dave Mason, sportsbook brand manager at BOL. "Monday Night Football was the final blow - massive winner for the public. Add it all up and the biggest winning NFL week ever for the players by far."
Early NFL Week 7 bet count
— Dave Mason (@DaveMasonBOL) October 15, 2024
58% NO +1.5 v DEN
58% NE +5.5 @ JAX
68% ATL -3 v SEA
56% BUF -9 v TEN
72% CIN -6 @ BUF
51% GB -3 v HOU
59% IND -3 v MIA
61% DET +1 @ MIN
75% PHI -3 @ NYG
76% LAR -6.5 v LV
69% WAS -7.5 v CAR
61% KC +1 @ SF
54% PIT +1.5 v NYJ
50% BAL -3.5 @ TB
80% LAC…
Early Week 7 one-side betting action on favorites includes Broncos (-2.5) over Saints, Falcons (-3) over Seahawks, Bengals (-6) over Browns, Eagles (-3) over Giants, Rams (-7) over Raiders, Chargers (-2.5) over Cardinals.
Week 7 Underdog Opinions and Considerations
I'm passing on the Thursday night football game again with so many injuries on the Saints, which has driven this line from Saints favorite and flipped to Broncos as road favorite. Good luck laying chalk on Denver as road favorite.
Imagine what this line would have been on the Saints (>4 pt favorite) heading into Week 3 when New Orleans was 2-0 and had just crushed the Cowboys in Dallas, and Denver was 0-2. Now the Saints (2-4) have lost 4-straight and the Broncos (3-3) have recovered to win 3-of-4. Things change quickly in the NFL with injuries, odds and adjustments, and the Saints will start QB Spencer Rattler again with Derek Carr still out. So be willing to change your opinion, but also stay grounded and not too influenced with recency bias and pay attention to lookahead lines.
Detoit (+1.5) at Minnesota - Lions Moneyline +110 (Line dropped and Vikings off bye week)
San Francisco (-1) vs. Kansas City - 49ers Moneyline (-120)
Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs. Baltimore - Buccaneers Moneyline +160
Would we consider the brutal Browns (+6) as home 'Dog vs. Bengals? Rushing numbers project similar, but not many other 'Dogs show positve edge at point of attack. Evaluating more into Friday.
Fairway's Forecast - NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks
San Francisco (-1) vs. Kansas City - 49ers Moneyline -120
Arizona (+1.5) vs. LA Chargers - Cardinals Moneyline +100 MNF
The 49ers are priced like a 'Dog at home and the Chiefs are off a bye week with a prep and rest advantage for this 2024 Super Bowl rematch. We've posted previously that we'll use favorites less than 2 points a few times per year as interested, and that's the case this week and adjust accordingly if line dips. We're sending out now in event line moves to -2. Recall our Week 2 underdog picks (4-1-1 ATS) included the Arizona Cardinals -1, and the Cards buried the Rams 41-10 as the market was still influenced by previous years results. Our projections have the 49ers out-rushing the Chiefs by more than 30 yards, which gives us a better than 75% ATS opportunity to cash in if that plays out accordingly.
Update for Sunday morning. No additional underdog picks. The quarterback play is so putrid on the Brown and Dolphins and struggling teams, and we won't push it even as home 'Dogs. The Titans top-tier defense would also normally be a strong consideration, but they too have a QB in Will Levis that is struggling and making mistakes. Going to Buffalo and one of the most difficult environments especially for younger, inexperienced quarterbacks has us passing on the ugly 'Dog.
Update for Monday. Considered the Buccaneers strongly and that's the opinion with a stronger play Over 50. Can't get over the projected rushing edge for Ravens, but matchups in passing game favorable for Bucs offense and QB Baker Mayfield. Instead, we go with other home underdog in Arizona. See more analysis and MNF coverage in Forbes.
Cardinals have the better offense (332-281 yards) and running game (145-128). The Chargers defensive stats are better, but LA has faced below average quarterbacks in 4-of-5 games this season. Arizona is also averaging 5.8 yards per play to 4.8 for the Chargers with the Cardinals sporting a slightly better net yards per play differential while also facing the best group of quarterbacks this season week after week. The Cardinals face another Monday in Justin Herbert, but Arizona has also held two division rivals to season-low yards in the 49ers and Rams. Home underdog victory on Monday Night Football.
Week 6 was also the highest-scoring week of the season with 14 games averaging 49.2 points per game. I'm already on a number of game totals bets and here are three 'Overs' in Week 6 action - Seahawks-Falcons (51), Texans-Packers (47.5) MNF Ravens-Bucs (48.5). I'll continue to try and chip-in bonus payouts with other picks and bets on totals, player props and more beyond the NFL Underdog picks.
More analysis, stats and ATS following review of injury reports Friday, so check back and into weekend for additional underdog picks, analysis, stats, ATS notes and information you can bet on.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.