Preview and prediction for Bills-Jets on MNF

Time to snap a 2-week losing streak following four-straight winning weeks on NFL underdog picks. I've added the New York Jets to the Week 6 card. As mentioned, there was little underdog interest for Week 6, and it played out as such with favorites dominating going 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS (or 10-2-1 Ravens 7 point win and line moving -6.5 to -7). Still graded the Bears a favorite but the line flipped game day with the Jaguars a slight favorite before getting blasted by the Bears 35-16 in London. 

It was a blood bath Sunday for the leading online sportsbooks and the second-straight week betting favorites posting at least 10 ATS wins on a 14 game card. 

Also worth noting that the Lions crushed the Cowboys in Dallas 47-9 and the Chargers won 23-16 at Denver and led 23-0 into the four quarter in a game I mentioned I bet the Chargers; 1-of-8 road favorites in Week 6. The Lions and Chargers were off a bye week and significant rest advantage. The Titans off a bye week didn't take advantage in a 20-17 home loss to the Colts, but Tennessee was one of 10 teams to outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards and those teams went 9-1 SU/ATS. Titans QB Will Levis was terrible in defeat passing for just 95 yards and an INT going 16-for-27. The Eagles won 20-16 off their bye but failed to cover against the bad-news Brons despite a 372 (6.0) to 244 (4.0) yards advantage.

We avoided disaster with more underdog picks as home underdogs went 0-8 SU/ATS for the week, but now were on one for Monday Night Football with the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets. 

I've chipped in some picks, props and information you can bet on below with more MNF Bill-Jets betting update in my Monday Night Football coverage in Forbes.  

So we're on the Jets as 'Dog and moneyline plus teasers, along with player prop Jets RB Breece Hall over 24.5 receiving yards (bet) with other top online sportsbooks showing 25.5 to 26.5 over/under receiving yards.

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Jets RB Breece Hall had a 24% target share in the first two weeks to lead all NFL running backs. The last three weeks the Jets faced three of the top six teams in blitz rate, and Hall was more involved in pass blocking. The Bills defense is surrending .44 EPA per target to NFL running backs (29th) and have struggled defending running backs out of the backfield going back to last season with top LB Matt Milano out of the lineup.

NFL scoring was up to a season-hight 49.7 points per game through 13 contests in Week 6. But you'll see advanced stats, matchups and information you can bet on in my breakdown of the Bills-Jets game in Forbes and why there is likely less scoring in the Bills-Jets matchup Monday night. 

Running Game Dominance

Running games dominated again in Week 6 with nine teams rushing for at least 150 yards and going 9-0 SU/ATS. Teams that ran the ball 30 or more times went 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS (if grading Ravens -6.5). Those teams that run the ball 30 times or more in a game are now 83% ATS this season. 

Teams that outrushed their opponent by at least 30 yards in Week 6 are 9-1 SU/ATS into the MNF contest. Only the Titans (126-80) failed to win in a 20-17 loss as -2.5 favorite that also saw the line flip from Colts to Titans as favorite earlier in the week when QB Anthony Richardson and then RB Jonathan Taylor was ruled out. 

I mentioned five teams projected to have a notable rushing edge in Week 6 games, and four of them did so and went 4-0 SU/ATS. I even projected Pittsburgh to do so over Las Vegas, but painfully (WFT you doing Fairway) still bet and picked the ridiculous Raiders as they got steamrolled by the Steelers at the point of attack (as projected) 183-57. Second straight week the Raiders had negative 3 turnovers and a 3-0 turnover differential (those teams with negative 3+ TO differential in a game are 0-10 SU/ATS this season). 

Planning on a Jets win and Breece Hall to deliver a cash payout as well.

You can bet on it. 

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on X @FairwayJay for more sports betting insights.