FairwayJay's NFL Underdog Picks for Week 7
Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season may feel like a downer without a marquee match-up like last week's Bills-Chiefs heavyweight 'bout and Buffalo's 24-20 win. Fortunately, we did not include the Chiefs (+3) in our underdog picks. Instead, it was another outright 'Dog winner on the Seahawks, but an unbelievable and unfortunate loss by the Jaguars.
You saw the end game, and if you were in a sportsbook like me and ready to cash in on another NFL 'Dog winner, it was a rough moment as the public favorite bettors roared when the Colts passed over the top on 3rd and 13 from the Jaguars 32 yard line for a TD with 17 seconds remaining to win 34-26. With Indy trailing 27-26, a field goal would have won the game, which of course is why Jacksonville was a monster favorite to cover the +2.5 point spread inside the final minute. We'll take the good with the bad and understand the variance and difficulty of beating 11-to-10 and the bookmaker when wagering on the NFL.
So we move onto Week 7 sitting 15-8 ATS with 14 outright winners on our NFL underdog only picks. That follows last season's 28-12 ATS 70% season and now 145-99 ATS (59.4%) with 82 outright winners posting NFL underdog only picks the past 5+ years, and providing bonus cash for Fairway's Followers and VIP members at Off Shore Gaming Association.
I was working on this Thursday with writeups and additions before the news broke that the 49ers had traded for RB Christian McCaffrey. It's uncertain whether he will play Sunday vs the Chiefs, but the line has dropped from Niners +3 to +2.5 currently at Bovada, +2 at BookMaker and +1.5 (-102) at BetOnline.
Check back over the weekend for any updates, additions and information you can bet on.
NFL Week 7 Underdog Picks
Detroit (+7) at Dallas - Lions moneyline +260
Indianapolis (+2.5) at Tennessee - Colts moneyline +120
San Francisco (+2) vs Kansas City - 49ers moneyline +125
Denver (+1.5) vs NY Jets - Broncos moneyline +125
Detroit at Dallas Prediction
Wait to bet this as the line may rise to +7.5 or more and certainly not lower than +7 with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott announcing Thursday his return from a broken thumb. He'll likely start, but coach crumble MM (Mickey Mouse) Mike McCarthy has not yet announced he will start. Regardless, he'll be a bit rusty and not in top form, IMO. The Lions are off a bye and a road underdog, which is a positive profile. Unfortunately the Lions defense doesn't have a positive profile and clueless coach Campbell's kitties rank last in Football Outsiders DVOA Defense rankings. Still, these two teams rate closer than perceived by more advanced measures including expected points added per play. Detroit ranks top 10 in Football Outsiders DVOA Offense including No. 5 rushing. Dallas is No. 17 in offensive DVOA and the passing game has been below average with game manager Cooper Rush replacing Dak. The Cowboys are also off the big game and 26-17 loss to division leader and rival Philadelphia in a game they had 3 turnovers and forced zero despite sporting a stronger defense.
Indianapolis at Tennessee Pick
Rematch from the Week 4 division duel when the Colts lost to the Titans 24-17 despite outgaining Tennessee by more than 120 yards. That's what happens when a team (Colts) is minus (-3) or greater in the turnover column in a game, as those -3 or greater turnover margin teams are now 0-17 SU/ATS this season after the Saints Thursday night debacle and pair of Pick-6's and negative (-3) turnover margin in their 42-34 loss at Arizona. The Colts rushed for just 38 net yards that Week 4 game vs the Titans and QB Matt Ryan got untracked for 356 passing yards and then 389 last week vs. the Jaguars. Ryan is still rated low by PFF and the Colts efficiency is lacking along with their ground game, which goes for just 83 yards per game. Running back Jonathan Taylor (ankle) missed the last two games but likely returns to the lineup for this big division game. The Titans are running for just 103 yards per game and 3.7 yards per rush and not nearly as often or effective as recent seasons. The Titans have been out-gained by every opponent this season, and we see that continuing Sunday in the AFC South first place showdown.
Kansas City at San Francisco
Monitor the line at the online sportsbooks with RB Christian McCaffrey's status following the trade to San Francisco, but bet the 49ers on the moneyline as well. The Niners should get more defensive reinforcements back this week and as such San Fran's defense is most capable of pressuring and frustrating Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. The 49ers top of the league run defense allows just 3.3 yards per rush and 87 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs are off the big game and loss to the Bills and Buffalo's great defense, and the Niners match them allowing less than 15 points per game as well. Stronger running game and defense as 'Dog is the way to go.
New York Jets at Denver
I've added the Broncos, who are now an underdog with the line shifting Saturday following the announcement that Denver QB Russell Wilson (hamstring) is out. You may be able to take +2 points by kickoff as New York bettors bomb away on the Jets and Giants in Week 7. (Update ahead of early Sunday kickoffs - Broncos +2.5 at BetOnline, and lowest total of week O/U 36.5). Both the Broncos and Jets have identical rushing numbers averaging 110 yards per game rushing on offense, and allowing 105 rushing yards per game on defense. The adjustment has been made for the change of quarterback for Denver. But Jets QB Zach Wilson ranks 27th in EPA/play, 36th in success rate, and 34th in completion percentage over expectation in his three starts this season. Wilson should struggle more against the Broncos pass defense and pass rush with the Jets right tackle playing out of position and the Broncos ranking No. 8 in pass rushing efficiency.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.