Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season features perhaps the most bet game of the season between the Bills and Chiefs in Kansas City. I'll update the betting data as able once received game day by top online sportsbooks. A rematch of last year's spectacular playoff game won by the Chiefs in overtime, 42-36 makes for big game betting on the Bills and Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes had been favored in his first 41 home starts until this week. He's also 9-0 ATS as an underdog in his career. Buffalo’s defense is conceding only 4.8 yards per target to TEs (4th) making it much tougher for Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, and it looks like Bills starting Safety Jordan Poyer and LB Tremaine Edmunds are on track to return for this game.
We're passing on the Chiefs as a home 'Dog this week, but the game will certainly attract more live betting and provide better options at the online sportsbooks than betting the game pre-flop in my opinion.
The Bears and Commanders led off Week 6 on Thursday with another prime time dud. Washington's 12-7 win followed last Thursday's 12-9 Colts win over the Broncos. That makes 1 TD in the last 45 drives on Thursday Night Football.
I'm having to rewrite much of my Week 6 update as I apparently didn't save my scribbles. Just know that our NFL underdog picks are 14-7 ATS with 13 outright winners this season following a Week 5 push on the Cleveland Browns (+2) in a 30-28 loss to the Chargers. A review of the analysis indicated only turnovers, unexpected/stupid penalties or very poor play from QB Jacoby Brissett can hijack this projected winner. Check, Check and Check on penalties with unsportsmanlike and unnecessary roughness, and bonehead Brissett. WTF is he thinking and the terrible INT inside the Chargers 10 yard line trailing 30-28 in final 3 minutes? The Browns get the ball back, and then miss a 54 yard field goal on the final play that would have won the game after Brissett again failed to gain any yards with 45 seconds left from the Chargers 36 yard line.
If you read the analysis in detail, you'll see we also projected the Browns to have a big day running the football. Cleveland rushed for 213 yards on 31 carries. Unfortunately, the leagues worst rushing team LA Chargers rushed for 238 yards - 4 times their season average.
That leads us into Week 6, and we're back betting on the Browns (-2.5) again as a favorite at home against the Patriots, but unable to include Cleveland in our NFL underdog picks. The Patriots also rank 28th in the NFL in defending the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. And rookie QB Bailey Zappe is going to find the road much rougher this week after success at home last week against the Lions sieve defense and 29-0 win.
So let's continue and shoot for more birdies and green on the NFL gridiron following last season's 28-12 ATS 70% season and now 144-98 ATS (59.6%) with 81 outright winners posting NFL underdog only picks and providing bonus cash for Fairway's Followers at OSGA the past 5+ years.
Be sure to monitor the betting lines and NFL Week 6 injury report ahead of the Sunday and Monday games.
NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks
Jacksonville (+2.5) at Indianapolis - Jaguars moneyline +120 at Bovada
Seattle (+2.5) vs Arizona - Seahawks moneyline +125 at BookMaker.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
We cashed in on the Jaguars as home 'Dog in Jacksonville's 24-0 shutout of the Colts in Week 2. That wipeout included a 21-9 first down edge, 331-218 yards advantage including 96-54 rushing (what's up Jonathan Taylor), 38-22 time of possession edge and five sacks of Colts QB Matt Ryan, who tossed 3 INT's for good measure. Ryan's pathetic play has continued since that contest and was on display over a week ago in a 12-9 snoozer and fortunate win at Denver despite being out-gained again and gaining less than 270 yards in regulation. Ryan has 7 interceptions this season. Now instead of laying -4 on the road, the Colts are laying just 2.5 with more online sportsbooks moving to Indy -2.
I'm well aware of the 'revenge' angle the media and pick sellers are spewing from last season's final week loss by the Colts at Jacksonville as 14-point favorites to keep Indianapolis out of the playoffs. The Week 2 shutout loss only adds more motivation for Indy. The Colts (2-2-1) have scored a league-low 69 points this season with the talent not coming close to expected performance. Based solely on on-field performance this season, the wrong team is favored despite the Jaguars sitting at just 2-3 following last week's surprising loss to the lowly Texans. Of course, that misleading final score of 13-6 showed Jacksonville out-gaining Houston 422-248 with a 5.8 to 4.4 yards per play edge. A -2 turnover differential in defeat clearly cost the Jaguars, and NFL survivor pool bettors as well. The Jaguars had a 14-0 lead at undefeated Philadelphia in Week 4, but lost 29-21 as our only loser that week thanks to 5 turnovers and a -4 TO margin. The Colts have three extra days of rest and prep, but we're making the contrary call in support of the Jaguars with their better yards per play differential, running game, quarterback and defense to bounce back off a pair of losses.
Arizona at Seattle
Both teams are 2-3, and more mismanagement by the Cardinals in last week's loss to the Eagles continues the ongoing weekly screwups with end play and in-game decisions by coaches and quarterbacks. The Cardinals also came out of the last week's game banged up at running back with their top three RB's forced out with injuries, and two ruled out this week. Center Rodney Hudson (knee) also was held out last week and he's questionable this week. Unfortunately, Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny (ankle, fibula fracture) was also knocked out and is on IR and out for the season. Rookie RB Kenneth Walker rushed 8 times for 88 yards last week, and joins the season's most surprising quarterback Geno Smith to give Seattle plenty of support.
Seattle has been net neutral on a per-play basis against a slightly above average schedule. The Seahawks have gained 6.6 yards per play (No. 2 NFL) but given up 6.6 YPPL - worst in the league. The Cardinals have only gained 4.9 yards per play against a slightly below-average schedule, but given up 5.9 yards per play. Again, if our bet on team and quarterback doesn't fk-up, we should get to the pay window, urrr online sportsbook account with another outright winner and home 'Dog.
Uncertainty and quarterback and new quarterbacks on teams is keeping us off some other games and underdogs this week. We'll be evaluating more on Sunday and making more in-game live wagers. But let's hope our game selection management and pair of underdog picks leads us to another winning week.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper with unparalleled success in NFL pointspread prognosis. Fairway is recognized as one of the sports industry's insightful analysts, and he chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairwayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more betting insights.