College Basketball Conference Tournament Betting Preview - Pac 12 and Mountain West

The countdown to the NCAA Tournament is less than a week away with Selection Sunday this weekend on March 17. But wall to wall basketball continues and the major conference tournaments tipped off this week and continue this weekend following first round (donkey) games Tuesday and Wednesday. The top teams in the major conferences are seeded into the quarterfinals Thursday, and we're chipping in college conference tournament (CCT) action from Las Vegas with the Pac 12 and Mountain West tournaments. 

You can read my major conference tournament previews in Forbes with schedules, matchups, odds, betting trends and notes, key players and select stats. I'm adding more here along with Picks and Opinions on the Pac 12 and Mountain West. I also added Opinions on the West Coast Conference which was also in Las Vegas this week and had a championship game winner on St. Mary's outright as 'Dog over Gonzaga after two underdogs failed to get the puppy chow in the semifinals. 

Note as I update the betting lines and game totals overnight and into daily matchups and games, the leading online sportsbooks are taking more bets and adjusting the lines and numbers. For example, I bet USC -2.5 over Washington in Wednesday's opening round in the Pac 12, and the line moved to -3.5. I bet more on the Trojans at halftime trailing by 5 points as the Huskies were shooting lights out 55% FG and 9-13 from long range. The USC Trojans would get the best of it down the stretch after the game was tied with 3 1/2 minutes to go, building a 7-9 point lead only for the Huskies to cut back in the final minute before missing a last second 3-pointer in USC's 80-74 win. You can see how many of these games land within a bucket or two of the point spread, and how half points or more matter, along with reduced juice sportsbooks. Good fortune helps no matter how well you handicap the games or get the best of the betting line. 

I bet a few futures, but not something I invest in much and often a rollover game-by-game can payout better than the opening tournament futures odds. Another big odds move was on USC, who I bet to win the Pac 12 conference tournament. I didn't get the best at 50/1 which was quickly gone at a U.S. leading online sportsbook. Sharply bet down to 20/1, then 18/1 and a sharp sportsbook in Las Vegas moved to 13/1. 

The Trojans are on my betting card Thursday against Pac 12 No. 1 seed Arizona. I took +9, the number is 8.5 over night. 

I'll be adding more NCAA Tournament previews on top-5 seeds in each region as I've done in recent seasons. Adding stats, KenPom data, profiles and selective picks. Again, you can get some information to use on major conference teams in my previews in Forbes.  

ACC and SEC
Big 12 and Big Ten
A-10 and American
Big East 

Check back daily as I update any additional picks and stats into the semifinal and championship games. 

Pac 12  

College basketball odds from BetOnline and leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Betting lines listed on favored teams and future games posted by sportsbooks. All times Eastern. 

Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 14 on Pac 12 Network & Game 8 on FS1 

Game 5: No. 1 Arizona (-8.5) vs. USC, Total 156.5 | 3 p.m.
Game 6: No. 4 Oregon (-2.5) vs. UCLA, 131 | 5:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Washington State (-8.5) vs. Stanford, 139.5 | 9 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Colorado (TBD) vs. | 11:30 p.m.

Arizona vs. USC
Pick: USC +

My West Coast contact watches tons of Pac 12 basketball, and gushed about the Trojans in recent weeks as undervalued including in their 78-65 season finale win over Arizona as a +7.5 point 'Dog. Now with 4-wins in a row and scoring 78 points or more in all four games, the Trojans get another shot against the No. 1 seed Wildcats. Arizona's stat profiles is by far the best in the Pac 12. Top scoring team (89.5/game), FG shooting (49.5%), scoring margin (+16), rebounding margin (+11), assists, steals. You get the picture. Along with rest, Arizona is the peoples choice with Pac 12 Player of the year in guard Caleb Love, and center Oumar Ballo led the league in FG shooting (64%) and No. 2 in rebounds (10/game). USC led the league in blocked shots with F Joshua Morgan the clear conference leader. Freshman guard Isaiah Collier is a NBA lottery pick if he comes out and Trojans co-leading scorer with backcourt mate Boogie Ellis, who just poured in 25 points vs. Washington. The Trojans are healthier and improved, playing better and the bookmakers know this but USC can still hang and will push hard with only a conference title getting them to the Big Dance.    

Mountain West

Quarterfinals: Thursday, March 14 on CBSSN 

Game 4: No. 1 Utah State (-12.5) vs. Fresno State, Total 142.5 | 3 p.m.
Game 5: No. 4 UNLV vs. No. 5 San Diego State (-4.5), Total 133 | 5:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Nevada (-1.5) vs. Colorado State, Total 138.5 | 9 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Boise State (-1) vs. New Mexico, Total 153 | 11:30 p.m

I was at a great college basketball game last week in Las Vegas on a media pass and sat with a group of six friends at midcourt just off the floor. UNLV took down Mountain West conference champion and national runner-up San Diego State 62-58. The Rebels went wire to wire and never trailed as +3 underdog, but the Aztecs tied the game with 40 seconds left and I had to hold on to my 'under' the game total right side and hope for no overtime. This line opened SDSU -2.5 and is up to -4.5 overnight. Regarless if you like San Diego State, it's just not a prudent play to bet into the rise or steam. Find other ways to bet, first half, in-game live betting, and watch the flow, shooting, pace and intensity. The total is up 1.5 points to 133, and I'm passing on the game but would still lean under the total and play it under in the first half. UNLV led SDSU 6-0 five minutes into the game last week. The Rebels have to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA Tourney, despite finishing 4th in the conference. I outlined and previewed the best race down the stretch was in the Mountain West, and if six teams make the Big Dance it will be a conference record. Five are nearly assured of going to the NCAA Tournament. 

Boise State vs. New Mexico
Pick: Over and Opinion: New Mexico ML

New Mexico is not yet in the NCAA Tourney, and must beat Boise State. They are a First Four Out in ESPN's Bracketology, but a win likely gets them into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014. I like both these teams, and wouldn't be surprised if either emerged as conference champion. The Lobos are perhaps the most talented team in the MWC, and following a tight game and 87-85 loss at regular season champion Utah State on the last game of the season, NM bounced back to blow out Air Force Wednesday in the first round of MWC action. That's 5-straight games scoring at least 77 points and just prior New Mexico lost at San Diego State 80-71 on a terrible shooting night against the the Aztecs MWC-best scoring defense & FG defense. The bookmakers and online sportsbooks are telling us what they think of the Lobos. New Mexico led the conference in scoring (82.5), scoring margin (+11), blocked shots, steals, turnover margin and No. 2 in rebounding margin behind league-leader Boise State. But the Lobos are better than the Broncos in FG shooting, FG defense and 3-point defense. Boise State swept the season series 2-0 with higher scoring games, and New Mexico shot poorly from the arc in both games. This should be another shootout up and down the court in Las Vegas Thursday with plenty of 3-balls and hopefully added fouls if needed. 

You can bet on it. 

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