Preview and picks for the WCC Final Four

The most exciting time of the college basketball season continues this week with more conference tournament games. The smaller conference teams and single-bid league's create much excitment and drama as players play their asses off hoping to realize their dreams of playing in next week's NCAA Tournament. The major conferences tip off their conference tournaments this week including in the ACC and SEC along with the Big 12 and Big Ten plus the Big East and Pac 12. But here in Las Vegas on Monday and Tuesday, the top 4 teams remain in the West Coast Conference Tournament, where No. 1 St. Mary's Gaels, ranked No. 23 in the country, and No. 2 Gonzaga Bulldogs ranked No. 19 are on another collision course to decide the conference tournament champion for the 16th year in a row. 

The West Coast Conference will send two teams to the NCAA Tournament again, and three if either Santa Clara or San Francisco can pull off upsets and steal the West Coast Conference title. The leading online sportsbooks have trouble generating more bets on these bigger underdogs in the West Coast Conference as Gonzaga and St. Mary's have dominated the WCC for more than a decade. 

Monday, March 11 

Orleans Arena - Las Vegas 

Odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

- Santa Clara vs. St. Mary's (-11.5), Total 134.5 - 9 pm ET - St. Mary's wins 79-65
- San Francisco vs. Gonzaga (-9), Total 149 - 11:30 pm ET - Gonzaga wins 89-77 

Wed., March 12 - WCC Championship Game 

- No. 2 Gonzaga (-3.5 / 4) vs. No. 1 St. Mary's, Total 138.5 - 9 pm ET - St. Mary's wins 69-60

Championship game update - Opinion St. Mary's ATS 

Gonzaga shot lights out in beating San Francisco in the semis last last night, 89-77 with line rising to -9.5. Bulldogs hit 50% FG and 11-20 (55%) from long range. St. Mary's won at Gonzaga in early Feb. 64-62 as +4.5 'Dog. Now they are getting nearly the same price on neutral court in Las Vegas. Value on the Gaels, despite losing to Gonzaga in final regular season game at home as their only conference loss having already secured the regular season title and No. 1 WCC Tournament seed. Defensive dominator as 'Dog gets the call (and cash). 

Both Santa Clara and San Francisco enter off blowout wins of more than 20 points in the WCC quarterfinals. Both the Broncos and Dons were double-digit favorites, and now they are nearly double-digit underdogs against the two conference kingpins. Last year I cashed in on San Francisco (+15) in this semifinal round against a stronger Gonzaga team, but the Zags are playing their best basketball now with 8-straight wins including the season-ending road win at St. Mary's to hand the Gaels their first loss in conference play. 

Also, semifinal round favorites of 11 or less points are 22-10 ATS, according to Playbook Sports. 

But San Francisco is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 WCC tournament games. Santa Clara joins St. Mary's as a top-2 three-point defense and No. 2 in scoring defense in the WCC.

San Francisco went 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS against both Gonzaga and St. Mary's this season. Santa Clara went 0-2 SU and 1-1 vs. St. Mary's and 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS vs. Gonzaga. 

St. Mary's is projected as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament and Gonzaga a No. 7 seed having played a tougher schedule. But the Zags SOS still only rates No. 59 in the country and the Bulldogs lost to San Diego State at home and lost to both projected No. 1 NCAAT seeds UCONN and Purdue on neutral courts. St. Mary's also lost to stronger Mountain West Conference teams San Diego State and Boise State on neutral courts and did beat New Mexico very early in the season and then close wins over UNLV and Colorado State. 

Gonzaga is the dominant offensive team in the conference and rank No. 9 in the country KenPom's offensive efficiency ratings while averaging a league-high 84.3 points per game (No. 7 in country) using Division 1 opponents only. San Francisco has the best turnover margin in the league, and Gonzaga and St. Mary's lead in Assist/TO ratio. The Gaels are also a dominant defense with league's best scoring and FG% defense and No. 3 in the country allowing just 59.5 points per game and 40% FG defense ranks No. 10 in the country. St. Mary's weakness is free throw shooting, but with the Gaels ability to control pace and play top-20 defense (KenPom), they are a potential sleeper come NCAA Tournament time with a top-tier coach in Randy Bennett. But Herb Sendek is a solid head coach at Santa Clara having been at Arizona State and NC State for nearly 20 years combined.  

Gonzaga and St. Mary's have combined to win 15 consecutive West Coast Conference Tournament titles. The Bulldogs have won 12 of those last 15 conference tournament titles including three of the last four years over St. Mary's. 

So where do we go with betting on these semifinal games? Close calls, but opinions to the underdogs despite the dominance of Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the WCC Tournament. I initially prefered the game totals under, understanding that St. Mary's is one of the slowest paced offensive teams in the country and hasn't played since losing 70-57 to Gonzaga at home on March 2. But Santa Clara and St. Mary's played an 82-77 game five weeks ago on the Gaels home court and the Broncos figured out after halftime how to attack and push the pace more against the methodical Gaels while scoring 55 points in the second half alone against St. Mary's.

Check back Tuesday for WCC championship game picks and more college basketball tournament coverage.

We'll start rolling out more college basketball content and NCAA Tournament seeding profiles including top seeds and 3-5 seeds as we've provided in recent seasons. 

You can bet on it. 

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