Colorado Shooting for Pac-12 Championship Game

What a season for Colorado (9-2/7-1 Pac-12), who can secure a spot in the Pac-12 championship game with a victory Saturday. Picked as an also ran at the start of the season, the Buffaloes have stampeded their way to the top of the Pac-12 with one of the biggest turnarounds in college football. This is a program that lost 40 of their first 45 conference games since joining the Pac-12 including 2-25 under Mike MacIntyre, who came aboard as head coach in 2013.

We've been on the Buffaloes bandwagon since the start of the season when they rammed rival Colorado State (analysis) and won at Oregon as big 'Dog. Colorado has been an ATM cash machine as well, going 10-1 ATS for their betting backers while hurting the sports books. Boulder should be buzzing today at Folsom Field, which sits over 5,000 feet above sea level. Temperatures are set for the 60s with sunny skies and light winds. All the emotions of senior day, a Pac-12 South division title and a pair of Top-25 teams makes for a terrific college atmosphere and contest.

Saturday, November 26, 2016
Colorado Buffaloes -10
Utah Utes                +10
Total: 53.5

Kickoff 7:30 ET (6:30 local), Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
Surface: Grass TV: FOX

The Buffaloes do so many things well. They feature a strong, balanced offense that rushes for 204 YPG and passes for 262 per game led by senior QB Sefo Liufau, who coach MacIntyre says "has meant everything" to the program. Running back Phillip Lindsey has rushed for 15 TDs while going over 1,000 yards. Liufau leads the Buffs hybrid 'air assault' with a deep receiver pool that will be tough for Utah to stop. The Buffaloes are also a defensive dominator, as Colorado has allowed less than 20 points per game, 141 rushing YPG and 202 passing YPG. The Buffaloes have allowed just six TDs at home in five games while going undefeated at Folsom Field.

The Utah Utes (8-3/5-3 Pac-12) were in the South division hunt until losing to Oregon 30-28 on a last minute touchdown at home last week. But this is a solid squad with a balanced offense (221 rush/204 pass) that plays solid defense with superior special teams for coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes will turn to their pound the ground rushing attack with RB Joe Williams (1,088 rush yards, 6.9 YPR, 9 TDs) shooting for a school rushing record at 155 YPG.

In a game of this magnitude, the stats can be overcome by emotion, and while Colorado has much to play for and the better of it at the line of scrimmage, the pressure to perform and 'with need you bleed' comes into play. Look at some of the much bigger upsets yesterday and in recent weeks. Utah has their own emotion to overcome having blown their chance last week at home against an inferior Oregon team. They also have a very tough opponent to battle, but all reports show the Utes players are positive.

Now add in line value, knowing that at the start of the season, Utah would have been more than a TD favorite in this contest in Boulder. We see a swing of more than 2 touchdowns against a Utah team that was 7-1 at one point with wins over USC, at UCLA and an even stat game in a close loss to the Pac-12s best team Washington. The Utes are still solid and have the superior special teams now playing loose in the role of spoiler.

Much to like about Colorado, and they've made us much money this season. They are the percentage side to win, but by double-digits is another matter. We'll take the big capable underdog plus the points knowing too that Utah is 7-2 ATS in the role of road underdog and better than 70% ATS on the road the last three years under veteran coach Whittingham.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay