Colorado Tries to Win at Oregon for the First Time in 49 Years

Colorado is a vastly improved team on both sides of the ball this season, and unfortunately recent injuries are a big blow to the Buffaloes. Colorado will try to beat Oregon in Eugene for the first time since 1967 Saturday. The Ducks have put a beat down on the Buffs going 5-0 SU/ATS since Colorado entered the Pac-12 with an average margin of victory of 38 points.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Oregon Ducks (-10.5)
Colorado Buffaloes (+10.5)
Total: 69

Kickoff 3:30 local MDT, Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

Field: Field Turf TV: Pac-12 Networks

Key Injuries

Pac-12 play kicks off for both teams and Colorado and Oregon are each shaken up with significant injuries to key players following last week's contests. The Buffs lost linebacker Derek McCartney (torn ACL) and kicker Diego Gonzalez (achilles) with season-ending injuries versus Michigan. Quarterback Sefo Liufau left the game due to an ankle injury and his status is expected to be a game-time decision.

The Ducks had the same misfortune against Nebraska with wide receiver & Olympian Devon Allen (torn ACL) and offensive lineman Tyrell Crosby (broken foot) being ruled out for the season. The Ducks' leading rusher Royce Freeman and safety Brenden Schooler were hurt as well, and both remain questionable although word from Eugene is that Freeman may not play.

We've backed the Buffaloes in their two FBS contests, and will be on them again here if Liufau is able to start as expected. Liufau was having an outstanding game against the Wolverines before leaving in the third quarter with an ankle injury, leading them to an early 21-7 lead with Colorado controlling the play. But a host of special team's miscues led to three Michigan touchdowns and the difference in a 45-28 spread-covering defeat. Michigan's average starting field position in the first half was the Colorado 46 yard line. Liufau has been nearly flawless this season in leading the Buffaloes resurgence. Redshirt freshman Steven Montez will make his first career start if Liufau is unable to go, and he does present a similar running threat like Liufau.

Penalties were problematic for Oregon in last week's loss at Nebraska (13 for 126 yards), as were the coaches decisions to go for 2-points often (1-for-5) in their 35-32 loss. The bottom line is that despite the impact injuries to Colorado, it can't be advised to support Oregon when the Ducks defense is allowing 30 points per game and over 400 yards per game while also facing some weak entries of Virginia and UC Davis. Oregon has allowed over 500 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in three games.

Key Stats

 - The Buffs have forced at least one takeaway in 16 straight games, the longest current such streak in the nation.

 - The Ducks have allowed opponents to convert nearly 90 percent of their third down rushing attempts, and Colorado is 19-for-25 on third down and 5 or shorter this season.

 - The Buffaloes defense has also been stout on third down, limiting opponents to just 3 conversions on 28 tries on third-and-6 or longer.

If Colorado can give its quarterback — whoever it is — enough time to open up the short passing game, it will go a long way in giving the Buffs a chance to establish some offensive rhythm and produce some momentum. That's key on the road, and hopefully the Buffs can shore up their special teams and withstand the Ducks offense while taking advantage of their defensive deficiencies.
This line would have been closer to Oregon -18 on opening week, which speaks to the improvement of Colorado. Check the status of QB Liufau for Colorado, and if he's heathy and ready, we'll be on the Buffaloes and ride them again.

Plenty of injuries in this contest and the line may move when QB Liufau's status is confirmed. Check out the top online sportsbooks for all the latest football spreads, totals, moneylines and props, and get the best line available along with reduced juice at 5 Dimes.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay