Identifying NCAA Football Underdogs and Parlays for Profit

Throughout the college football season, we'll post a 4-team Money Line parlay for $20 and list the potential payout. These four teams will all be Underdogs to win outright. We'll call it Fairway's Football Forecast - so join Fairway's Foursome as we take a Shot with Big Bertha for a big Birdie score.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking 'Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your sports betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs at the sports books can be very rewarding.

Adjustments in power ratings and price based on results continue, as teams improve and others seemingly decline. Some of it is based on perception vs. reality and now teams are into the more important conference schedule. Injuries are a factor and need to be monitored and evaluated, along with schedules and bye weeks. An over-reaction to Maryland's QB injuries saw Minnesota bet up from a 10-point home favorite to 13.5. Final, Maryland 31-24 upset win. Pretty surprising, but just four outright underdogs won Saturday on a 50-game card. We had one of them with Marshall crushing Cincinnati. We had Washington State (+3.5) Friday night in the Cougars storm-the-field win over USC. Our play on Northern Illinois (+11) was bet down to 8.5 on game day at San Diego State, and the Huskies out-played the undefeated Aztecs and covered in a 34-28 defeat. NIU out-gained SDSU 417-263 with a 24-10 first down advantage, and lost. San Diego State returned the opening kickoff 96 yards for a TD, a pick-6 for 83 yards and a TD, another NIU fumble into a next-play TD of 33 yards, and NIU threw an INT in the red zone with less about 3 minutes remaining down 6. Four turnovers for NIU and zero for SDSU and we still get the cover as NIU out-played SDSU in defeat.

As is annually the case during this stretch of the season, the over-reaction to some team's performances, both good and bad, often sets up line value. The No. Illinois example above is why you cannot just look at scores, and why situations matter as I showed in the analysis. Many bettors will have a tougher time supporting 'bad' or poor performing teams early in the season. And their perception of these teams will continue, despite many teams making improvements and adjustments. That's especially true after Week 5 results with so many favorites dominating in victory. Some teams are clearly bad, and have problem areas to address which impact their ability to stay competitive, often along the offensive and defensive lines. But it's up to you to have the Balls to play value and recognized inflated lines and identify situations and teams to support.

That said, college football is often a momentum sport, so the trick is the find the treat for those teams that can bounce back from poor performances, and other 'Dogs playing well but not getting enough credit in the marketplace or playing a team that is not as good as their current play has shown. We do play favorites, and are willing to ride a hot hand. We need to know our team is motivated and is ready to give a good effort in a favorable situation. Regardless of your choice, try to find hidden stats or information that may show subtle or significant gains which may point you towards improved play and performance of teams ahead.

Lets' continue this exercise and College Football Challenge as we seek out some value and isolate underdogs that can bite and deliver the Green.

Last week we went 2-2 ATS with one outright winner on Marshall. For the season, we now stand 10-6 ATS with seven outright 'Dog winners. Let's see if we can continue the strong early season run into week 6 as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway's Football Forecast.

Here's a recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week. We'll keep to FBS games and opponents only.
•  Marshall (+4) at Cincinnati – Thundering Herd won 38-21
•  Maryland (+13.5) at Minnesota – Terrapins won 31-24
•  Troy (+20.5) at LSU - Trojans won 24-21
•  North Texas (+8) at So. Miss - Mean Green won 43-28

This week's underdog plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

335 Duke (+2.5) at Virginia – Blue Devils Money Line +115
366 UNLV (+10.5) vs San Diego State – Rebels Money Line +300
395 LSU (+2.5 or or 3) at Florida – Tigers Money Line +115
404 Nebraska (+11.5) vs Wisconsin – Cornhuskers Money Line +325

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $1,551
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

Duke at Virginia – A good example of 'bad' teams from a season ago that many won't bet early season. Missed profits thus far, as Duke is 4-1 SU/ATS with their first loss last week at home to a stronger team and pedigree of Miami. Note however, the Blue Devils did out-rush, out-possess and have more first downs than Miami, but inefficient QB play and turnovers proved problematic. Virginia is now 3-1 following their big 'Dog road win at Boise State, & former BYU coach Mendenhall has the Cavs moving in the right direction. Virginia's offense and defense are both significantly improved from last year, each by at least 9 points and 80 yards per game on each side of the ball. The loss however was to Indiana 34-17 on this field when the Hoosiers outrushed the Cavs 141-55. Cavaliers WR Andre Levrone leads the country in yards per catch (26.8), and Duke's pass defense is sub-par. Well aware Virginia also enters off an extra week of rest and prep, but it's Duke that is still stronger and has played a tougher schedule with double-digit wins over Northwestern, Baylor and rival North Carolina up the Tobacco road. The Blue Devils have the more balanced offense rushing and passing for at least 210 YPG, and the Cavs solid and improved run defense gets their toughest test. Duke also has the stronger defensive front with a top-20 defense allowing 80 rushing YPG and a pass rush that has 19 sacks ranking among the best in the county. Two very well-coached teams and Virginia beat Duke as a 'Dog last year for their only conference win. Last week's divergent results has caused an over-reaction in the betting line with Duke opening as favorite and now the 'Dog. But the stronger team with a more balanced offense and defensive puts us on Duke as 'Dog in redemption.

San Diego State at UNLV – Here's a running Rebel 'Dog without a quality defense going up against the 5-0 San Diego State Aztecs. Amid the attacks off the field and tragedy in Las Vegas this week, UNLV plays with pride and a top-10 rushing attack averaging 292 yards per game vs FBS opponents. Few adjust better to various schemes and running games than SDSU coach Rocky Long, but we'll go against the Aztecs for a 2nd straight week after they pulled out a fortunate win last week with defense and special teams leading the way as SDSU was out-gained by No. Illinois 429-263. The Aztecs are actually allowing 145 rushing YPG and each opponent has scored at least 17 points against them. UNLV has covered 3-straight following their opening week debacle while scoring 40 or more points in three games led by talented and emerging QB Armani Rogers and a solid offensive line. No doubt SDSU senior running back Rashaad Perry will get his yards, but the 5-0 Aztecs are in a number of negative ATS situations as an undefeated road favorite at this stage of the season. In a game filled with emotion from other events and ceremonies honoring victims and brave responders, medical professionals and others, we support and side with the UNLV ground attack that will attempt at least 40 running plays looking to control the ball, clock and chains against the stronger Aztecs.

LSU at Florida – This line has dropped but a few 3's are still showing in Las Vegas. Both these teams have just 1 ATS win, and Florida (3-1) is so fortunate to have three wins, but at least they have beaten some notable and capable opponents. LSU (3-2) has beaten nobody of significance while being embarrassed in two losses including last week at home to Troy in a 24-21 defeat as 20-point favorite. The return of leading rusher and 1st team SEC RB Derrius Guice will help after missing last week's game (knee), and coach Ed Orgeron said star defensive end Rashard Lawrence and nose tackle Ed Alexander should be back from injuries that held them out Saturday against Troy. A few other defensive players that have missed time may be available as well, as the Tigers try to regroup along with QB Danny Etling, who remains the starter. Clearly LSU was looking forward to this key contest and suffered their letdown and upset loss to Troy. But the situation this week suggests LSU brings an 'all-in' effort to the swamp, and ATS situations support the Tigers off three-straight ATS losses. Florida turns to freshman QB Feleipe Franks after starter Del Rio broke his collarbone last week. Franks spurned LSU after an 18-month verbal commitment, and emotions and motivation will be high for LSU also knowing that Florida pulled out a 16-10 win over LSU last year. That despite a 423-270 yard edge for LSU as RB Guice was stuffed on 4th and goal from the 1-yard line to allow Florida to win the SEC East. Franks and the Gators sluggish offense is without leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland (ankle). The Gators offense is averaging just 358 YPG and 145 rushing, while the Tigers have balance at 190+ yards both rushing and passing. Look for LSU's defense to rise up and the Tigers to get their revenge in a most meaningful game.

Wisconsin at Nebraska – Much to like about unbeaten Wisconsin (4-0) and Bucky Badger, whos pound the ground attack averages 233 YPG and totals 460 YPG. Wisconsin has also beaten Nebraska 4-straight times; the last two by less than 7-points. But the Badgers had just 306 yards offense in a turnover-filled game and home win over Northwestern last week, and we like the spot and situation for Nebraska (3-2), who is 2-0 in the Big Ten just in front of Wisconsin (1-0). The 'Huskers defense has come together the last three games after getting shredded at Oregon. Wisconsin's is stronger both stopping the run and getting after the QB (8 sacks last week). Clearly Nebraska has to play better up to their potential, but signs are showing such and value players have to take knowing the Cornhuskers would have been near a 3-point underdog in this match-up at the start of the season. Even without key RBs for Nebraska, we side the 'Huskers way in a tough nighttime environment as big red and their faithful fans will be at their emotional peak for this prime time Big Ten battle.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your 'Dogs deliver the Green.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay