Identifying Week 5 College Football Underdogs and Parlays for Profit

Throughout the college football season, we'll post a 4-team Money Line parlay for $20 and list the potential payout. These four free college football picks will all be Underdogs to win outright. We'll call it Fairway's Football Forecast - so join Fairway's Foursome as we take a Shot with Big Bertha for a big Birdie score.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking 'Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs at the sports books can be very rewarding.

Adjustments in power ratings and price based on results continue, as teams improve and others seemingly decline. Some of it is based on perception vs. reality and now teams are into the more important conference schedule. Injuries are a factor, which was evident in one of our brutal losses last week on Ball State, who's starting QB was ruled out on Saturday sending Western Kentucky from an 8-point favorite to 12 at kickoff. No problem for us, as Ball State took the lead 21-20 and was kicking off with less than 5 minutes remaining in the game. Western Kentucky drove for the go ahead TD and missed the 2-point conversion to lead 26-21 with 1:30 remaining. On third and 10, Ball State's QB threw an interception, which was returned for a touchdown, 33-21 final. Ugh. Not many worse for underdog bettors.

As is annually the case during this stretch of the season, the over-reaction to some team's performances, both good and bad, often sets up line value. Many bettors will have a tougher time supporting 'bad' or poor performing teams early in the season. And their perception of these teams will continue, despite many teams making improvements and adjustments. Some teams are clearly bad, and have problem areas to address which impact their ability to stay competitive, often along the offensive and defensive lines. But it's up to you to have the Balls to play value and not fall for the bait that is often an inflated line against a poor performing team.

That said, college football is often a momentum sport, so the trick is the find the treat for those teams that can bounce back from poor performances, and other 'Dogs playing well but not getting enough credit in the marketplace or playing a team that is not as good as their current play has shown. We do play favorites, and are willing to ride a hot hand. Navy was one last week, where we posted -11 and it was bet down to -8 game day. All Navy did was rush for 569 yards, dominate Cincinnati and then get back doored on a 4th down and ensuing 2-point conversion to win 42-32. Quite certain I've never lost a bet when our team rushes for 500+ yards and the opponent runs for 58, and our handicap played out . . . but the unfortunate result did not.

Lets' continue this exercise and College Football Challenge as we seek out some value and isolate underdogs that can bite and deliver the Green.

Last week we went 2-2 ATS and our two ATS winners both lost by 1 point late. All four of our underdog picks and plays led in the 4th quarter. For the season, we now stand 8-4 ATS with six outright 'Dog winners. Let's see if we can continue the strong early season run into week 5 as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway's Football Forecast.

Here's a recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week. We'll keep to FBS games and opponents only.

 - Virginia (+14) at Boise State – Cavaliers won 42-23
 - Duke (+2.5) at North Carolina – Blue Devils won 27-17 
 - NC State (+11) at Florida State – Wolf Pack won 27- 21
 - UCF (+4.5) at Maryland – Knights won 38-10
 - New Mexico (+7.5) at Tulsa – Lobos won 16-13
 - Texas Tech (+7) at Houston – Red Raiders won 27-24
 - Idaho (+6.5) at South Alabama – Vandals won 29-23 in OT
 - UL Monroe (+5) at UL Lafayette – ULM won 56-50 in OT
 - Arizona State (+15) vs Oregon – Sun Devils won 37-35

This week's underdog college football picks – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

137 Marshall (+4) at Cincinnati – Thundering Herd Money Line +160
194 Virginia Tech (+8) vs Clemson – Hokies Money Line +260
205 Northern Illinois (+11) at San Diego State – Huskies Money Line +330
208 Hawaii (+7) vs Colorado State – Rainbow Warriors Money Line +220

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $2,555
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

Marshall at Cincinnati – Let's get our money back against Cincinnati, who allowed 569 rushing yards to Navy last week as the Middies rushed the ball 72 times at nearly 8 yards a pop. It wasn't a good spot for the Bearcats, but they still were worn down vs. Michigan, then the Euphoria of stealing the Victory Bell at Miami Ohio followed by last week's massacre at the point of attack vs. Navy. Marshall is not too strong rushing the ball, but with an extra week to prepare and plan off a bye, we see the Herd having enough success vs. a beaten down Bearcat defense. Marshall's hidden strength advantage of special teams could be a difference, and the Herd are a great example of a 'bad' team that fell on hard times last year following years of success that the public has a difficult time supporting. Bounce back season underway, as Marshall is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. Marshall may not be much, but a much-improved run defense is part of the resurgence that will try to snap an 8-game losing skid on the road. Cincy returns home off rugged 3-game road trip for this less-important non-conference games with AAC foe UCF up next.

Clemson at Virginia Tech – Defending National Champ Clemson No. 2 in the AP poll with a dominating defense that has allowed just 37 points in their 4-0 start. Many find it tough to play against the Tigers, who have also won 11-straigth road games including 7-straight vs. winning teams. I get it and understand. But the Hokies are also 4-0, up to No. 12 in the polls and will be sky-high here at home for this key ACC clash. Virginia Tech's scoring profile is near identical to Clemson's, as the Hokies have scored 160 points and allowed 40 points while also starting 4-0. Virginia Tech lost this match-up last year in the ACC title game 42-35. Tech has the stronger special teams, and a very strong, balanced offense that is currently No. 5 in the country averaging 575 YPG which includes 264 rushing YPG. Balance is how you overcome and beat a dominant defense, and Virginia Tech has it. The Hokies also beat West Virginia, who leads the country in offense. Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente is doing a great job following the legend Frank Beamer, and the Hokies are on a 7-1 SU/ATS roll dating to last season with the lone loss to Clemson. Coach Fuente is 11-4 ATS as a 'Dog seeking revenge in his career, including 6-1 ATS against a winning team. A marquee match-up of the week and we side with the live home 'Dog.

Northern Illinois at San Diego State – We've been cashing in on San Diego State on these pages in their two outright 'Dog wins vs. Pac-12 opponents. Last week the Aztecs improved to 4-0 in their conference-opening, weather-delayed road win at Air Force 28-24. That back-and-forth game was a beauty, and a breather along with some attrition is expected after Air Force's option attacked SDSU for 60 rushing attempts. Now the situation is nearly as bad as it gets against SDSU coach Rocky Long and his troops this week. Non-conference perennial MAC Power Northern Illinois invades seeking a bit of redemption for last year's loss to San Diego State. The best part is the Huskies (2-1 SU/3-0 ATS) enter rested and ready off a bye week and a victory at Nebraska the week prior. That road win continued Northern Illinois' strong history of road success that includes a 5-0 ATS run to last year. With Northern Illinois allowing less than 100 rushing YPG and 17 PPG, and the strength of SDSU's defense and running game, this looks like a game where points will be at a premium. We sell the San Diego State stock this week and buy a double-digit 'Dog (Husky!) in a solid situation to produce us more profit.

Hawaii at Colorado State – A pair of 2-2 teams match-up in the late night bail-out game on the Island, where Hawaii returns following last week's 'oh so close' overtime loss at Wyoming, 28-21. The Rainbow Warriors were taking the same price as this week before the money came in supporting their upset bid. Hawaii deserved better, out-gaining Wyoming in the high-altitude of Laramie 450-269 with both teams rushing for nearly 170 yards. Special teams problems persist, and two interceptions proved problematic including in the red zone for Warriors and QB Brown, who has passed for 8 TDs and more than 1,000 yards in four games but tossed 6 interceptions. Still, this Hawaii offense shredded UCLA on the road for over 500 balanced yards in a 56-23 loss the week prior, and the Warrior's offense is explosive in 2nd-year coach Rolovich's system. Yes, Colorado State is off their own bye following a beat down at Alabama, and CSU has tons of travel ahead. Coach Bobo says his team is mentally and physically fatigued going into this stretch, and a body clock change and second-half hit in Hawaii could follow. The Rams have gotten lei'd when playing Hawaii, however, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Colorado State also has an explosive offense with strong QB Stevens and the league's best stable of running backs. Offensive line issues aside, the Rams figure to score plenty of points and a rising total says shootout on the island with us in support of a Rainbow at the end of a long day.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit with these free college football picks and may all your 'Dogs deliver the Green.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay