Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins
Date/Time: Thursday 8-8/7:30 PM ET
Game# 259-260

The current NFL preseason betting odds at 5Dimes is showing Miami as a 4.5-point favorite over Atlanta. This will be the 6th consecutive preseason that these teams have met. The Dolphins were 34-7 winners at Atlanta last August. It marked Miami’s 4th preseason win in a row against the Falcons.

The Miami Dolphins had very little success covering preseason games throughout the past decade. That’s especially been the case at home where Miami is 2-11 ATS during their last 13 games. They also lost 8 of those previous 13 home games straight up.

Furthermore, Miami has been a money bleeder as a preseason favorite. In fact, the Dolphins are 0-12 ATS during their last 12 preseason games as a favorite of 2.5-points or more. Additionally, they lost 9 of those 12 games straight up.

There’s another preseason betting trend that I place very little, if any value in, but is worth a mention. Since 1985, Miami has gone 0-17 ATS as a favorite in preseason openers while losing 14 of those games outright.
Atlanta is coming off a lackluster 14-10 loss to Denver in last Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game. The Falcons also failed to cover that contest as a 2.0-point underdog. They will be taking on a Miami Dolphins team that’s playing their preseason opener. This precise set of data qualifies for a powerful NFL preseason betting angle which is illustrated below.

Any team that’s playing in their 2nd preseason game as an away underdog of 4.5-points or less, coming off an underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 3.5-points or fewer, and they scored 7 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs 17-1 straight up and against the spread (94.4%) since 1983.
The above NFL preseason betting angle is not only impressive from a win percentage standpoint, it’s additionally sound in theory on many fronts.

Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4.5

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com