Week 11 NFL Underdog Betting Picks
The Browns were brutally bad in defeat last week, but our late afternoon picks bounced back with the Vikings and Eagles winning outright on the road as underdogs. That runs the 'Dog log to 16-6 ATS this season with 12 outright winners and now 118-85 ATS (58.1%) with 60 outright underdog winners over the past 5 seasons posting underdog picks on these pages. For the second straight week, the 'Dogs bit hard going 9-5 ATS and now 19-9 ATS the last two weeks. Those results are good for the online sportsbooks, who take far more bets and money on favorites.
Check out my recent update and rushing stats, and how to use point of attack play to your advantage when handicapping NFL games and match-ups. Last week teams that outrushed their opponent by at least 30 yards went 7-1-1 SU and 9-0 ATS, making those rush advantaged teams 75-25 (75%) ATS this season. The Eagles led the way as our winner with 214 rushing yards on 40 attempts. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in an NFL game are now 79-14 SU and 72-21 ATS. That does not include the Lions tie, but ATS win last week, with both Detroit (39) and Pittsburgh (31) rushing at least 30 times in their 16-16 overtime tie.
The league leaders in average rushing attempts per game this season:
With injuries to Titans RB Derrick Henry along with offensive line injuries and match-ups against opponents defensive lines and strengths, there is much to review each week with point of attack play and projections. Be sure to check the Week 11 injury report, and each week's injury updates and game time decisions as you watch, wager and fire live betting in-play wagers at the top online sportsbooks.
Teams taking the most point spread money in Week 11 at the leading online sportsbooks include:
49ers (-6.5), Dolphins (-3.5), Panthers (-3.5), Ravens (-5.5), Packers (-2) and Bengals (-1). Favorites again taking more bets and spread action, along with moneyline.
Lets dive into the underdogs with our biggest card and volume of weekly picks this season and try to add to our 16-6 ATS 'Dog log in Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Underdog Picks
New York Jets (+3.5) vs Miami - Jets moneyline +160 at BookMaker
Washington (+3.5) at Carolina - WFT moneyline +150 at BetOnline
Houston (+10) at Tennessee - Texans moneyline +380 at Heritage Sports
Minnesota (+2) vs Green Bay - Vikings moneyline +100 at Wagerweb
Dallas (+3) at Kansas City - Cowboys moneyline +120 at Sportsbetting.ag
Miami at New York Jets
The Jets have stunk, but the floundering fish favored on the road has about as much appeal as their league-worst running game. Now averaging 73 rushing yards per game including 58 over their last three contests, Miami is getting credit for last week's big upset win over Baltimore while the Jets make nobody's list after another blowout loss to the Bills. Of course, Miami was plus-2 in the turnover column in victory, and those teams are 26-5 SU/ATS this season. The Jets had five turnovers against the Bills and were minus-3 in the turnover column. New York leads the league in giveaways (bad) and has a league-worst minus-15 turnover margin. Teams on the wrong end of a 3 or greater turnover margin in a game are 2-21 SU and 1-22 ATS this season. Tua returns at quarterback for a Dolphins offense averaging 17.7 points per game. Prior to last week's mistake-filled loss, the Jets offense had shown life with 486 yards against the Colts and 511 against the Bengals when rallying for a rare home win. The running game is improved with Michael Carter taking the lead, and the Jets leading receiver Corey Davis (hip) returned to action last week and led the team with 7 receptions for 93 yards. The Jets defense has been brutal, allowing a league-worst 6.3 yards per play including 7.9 over their last three games. But the Jets have some match-up advantages with their defensive line, and Tua is going to be pressured more. The Jets turn to veteran QB Joe Flacco, as the Mike White trial is over and rookie Zach Wilson (PCL sprain) still not 100%. New York is a tied with Washington with a league-worst 2-7 ATS mark. Doesn't matter in this match-up as we ride the ugly home 'Dog to victory. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets.
Washington at Carolina
You may now have to lay -120 to get +3.5 on the Washington Football Team, but take the points and add the competitive 'Dogs to your moneyline bets with a portion of your wagers as well. The Panthers got their running game going last week in RB McCaffrey's second game back from injury. The big upset win at Arizona opened some eyes, but Carolina only averaged 4.9 yards per play on offense. The three previous games the Panthers scored 6, 19 and 3 points. The Panthers may be fortunate to reach 325 yards offense this week even against the underperforming WFT defense. The Panthers rank 30th in the NFL by both Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings and EPA (expected points added) per play. Much prefer the momentum of a WFT team off there no-fluke 29-19 win over the defending champs in shutting down Brady and the Bucs to 223 total yards. The Football Team's coach, Ron Rivera, will have his team ready in his return to Carolina, where he coached from 2011-2019. No, self-proclaimed Superman, Cam Newton, won't save the day for the Panthers in his second game back and set to start this week for his former team.
Houston at Tennessee
The big ugly 'Dog with the Texans off a bye is tough to pull the trigger for most bettors. But the Titans return home off a five-game grinder with five straight wins over winning teams, while going 4-1 ATS with last week's late TD for the Saints backdoor cover. Go inside the numbers and you'll see the Titans have only rushed for 66 and 69 yards the last two games playing without RB Derrick Henry. The Titans also gained just 264 and 194 yards in those two games and victories, and Tennessee has a league-high 20 players on injured reserve. Time for a breather, letdown and less than top performance for the Titans while Houston QB Tyrod Taylor returns to take over for rookie Davis Mills. Taylor and the Texans still don't have much appeal, but if there is a spot to take the terrible Texans (1-8), this is it despite Houston's horrific offense scoring a league-low 14.2 points per game.
Green Bay at Minnesota
The line has dipped and is +1.5 now at many online sportsbooks offering bonuses. Lets continue to ride the Vikings against the first place Packers and their big rival. Aaron Rodgers returned last week from COVID and he wasn't too sharp and didn't need to be with Russell Wilson returning from injury and playing like crap in the Packers 17-0 win. The Packers (8-2) have covered nine-straight games since an opening week loss and have a 3.5-game lead over the Vikings in the NFC North. Minnesota is a teaser leg addition and the Vikings offense is averaging 385 yards per game - 45 YPG more than the Packers. Quarterback Kirk Cousins is have a very fine season with an 18-2 TD-INT ratio and top talent at the skill positions. Look closer at the efficiency metrics like EPA per play and DVOA and you'll see these two teams are more evenly matched that the market indicates. Green Bay's defense is top notch even with some key players out, allowing 309 yards per game and 50 yards less over their last three contests. But the Packers still allow 4.6 yards per rush, and that fits the Vikings and home 'Cook'in' with their top-10 running game and balanced attack. Minnesota is 4-0 ATS as division home 'Dog under head coach Zimmer and the purple gets the puppy chow in this NFC North division duel.
Dallas at Kansas City
Lets take +3 (-115 at Sportsbetting.ag) and buy it on Dallas with our rushing numbers and guidelines clearly favoring the visiting Cowboys. Also, a high-scoring shootout to sail over this high total (56). The Chiefs broke out last week in their road route of the Raiders, 41-14 to take over the lead in the AFC West. But the NFC East-leading Cowboys lead the NFL with 434 yards per game offense and 6.3 yards per play. Averaging a league-high 31.6 points per game, the Cowboys offense should roll again against a deficient Chiefs defense allowing 373 YPG and Dallas' top 5 rushing attack and 30 attempts per game running wild over a Chiefs run defense that has improved, but is still sub-par.
More updates along the way as we shoot for more touchdowns and green on the gridiron.
You can bet on it.
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay