Top 25 Betting Report with Preview and Picks for Week 6 Games
Four more Top 25 match-ups in Week 6 on Saturday, Oct. 9 as college football continues. That does not include No. 1 Alabama at Texas A&M, as the Aggies have fallen out of the Top 25 following two straight losses after sitting in the top 10.
We chipped in a 4-1 result on picks and opinions last week, which included 2-0 Top 25 winning picks on Oklahoma State and a bonus pick on Kentucky (+8), who beat No. 10 Florida outright, 20-13. Five new teams entered the AP Top 25 this week led by undefeated Kentucky, who enters at No. 16.
This week I chip-in stats on 10 college football teams, and look more closely at yards per play differential with more data to review.
College Football Stats Leaders
There are 10 teams in college football that have out-gained all of their opponents this season. Eight of these teams have a yards per play differential of at least 2.0 YPPL (offense YPPL vs defense YPPL). These teams are even more attractive when the leading online sportsbooks make them an underdog. Such was the case when we picked and bet on Florida as a big underdog in their 2-point loss against No. 1 Alabama in our 3-0 sweep in Week 3. Last week, Arizona State beat UCLA on the road as an underdog. I bet the Sun Devils, but only include the Top 25 match-ups in this report.
(Yards Per Play Offense / Yards Per Play Defense)
Arizona State (7.2 / 4.4) 449 YPG Offense
Coastal Carolina (8.3 / 4.6) 541
Florida (7.0 / 4.9) 509
Fresno State (6.2 / 4.9) 490
Georgia (6.6 / 3.2) 433
Iowa State (6.8 / 3.8) 469
Liberty (6.2 / 4.1) 419
Ohio State (8.4 / 5.1) 555
Purdue (5.3 / 4.8) 415
SMU (7.0 / 6.1) 543
Week 6 Top 25 Match-ups
Saturday, Oct. 9
No. 2 Georgia at No. 18 Auburn | 3:30 p.m. | CBS
No. 3 Iowa vs. No. 4 Penn State | 4 p.m. | Fox Sports
No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 21 Texas (Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas) | 12 p.m. | ABC
No. 13 Arkansas at No. 17 Ole Miss | 12 p.m. | ESPN
Limited analysis this week with time constraints and commitments.
Georgia at Auburn
Line: Georgia -15 and Total 47 at Jazz Sports
Injuries to more key players including wide receivers and quarterback JT Daniels (out, late), has us leaning with Auburn. Note Georgia's dominant defense leads the nation allowing just 181 yards per game and less than 5 points per game. Auburn QB Bo Nix had a great game in last week's win at LSU. He has yet to throw an INT this season, but that may well change against the most dominant defense in the country.
Lean: Auburn plus points
Penn State at Iowa
Line: Iowa -2.5 and Total 41 at BookMaker
A top-5 showdown between a pair of top-3 scoring defenses with Big Ten bullies Iowa and Penn State each allowing approx. 11 points per game. Iowa is the real deal and the defense forces turnovers. The Hawkeyes lead the nation in turnover margin at plus-12, but Penn State has turned the ball over just three times. Iowa's passing game is too inefficient, and recall they were out-gained by Iowa State but won again due to turnovers. A huge match-up of 5-0 teams goes Penn State's way this week.
Pick: Penn State plus points and moneyline
Oklahoma vs Texas
Line: Oklahoma -3 and Total 63.5 at GT Bets
The Red River Showdown looks like a good one, and both the side and total have been bet down. Both the Sooners and Longhorns allowing 24 PPG, but these games have been shootouts with each of the last three meetings going over 60 points including last year's 53-45 overtime thriller won by Oklahoma. Texas offense is averaging 473 YPG but more than 550 YPG and 53 points per game when Casey Thompson plays quarterback. Oklahoma is 5-0 SU, but 0-4 ATS vs FBS opponents this season, providing some value on the low line. The preseason line was Oklahoma -14, but Texas has played better thus far this season.
Opinion: Over 63.5 and lean Oklahoma
Arkansas at Ole Miss
Line: Mississippi -5.5 and Total 66.5 at BetOnline
Arkansas pulled the upset last year as Ole Miss QB Matt Corral tossed 6 interceptions. Razorbacks suffered first loss last week in a 37-0 shutout to Georgia while Ole Miss also took it on the chin for their first loss against Alabama. Prefer bounce back by home standing Rebels with QB Corral now leading a 522 yards per play offense.
Opinion: Mississippi -5.5
FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Read more great insights from FairwayJay and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay