Strategies and Tips For Handicapping and Betting College Football Bowl Games

College bowl season has kicked off with a betting bonus 42 bowl games to watch and wager on nearly every day from Dec. 16 through Jan. 29. That includes the College Football Playoff semi-final games Dec. 31 and the National Championship game Jan. 9, 2023 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Is Georgia primed to win back-to-back National Championships as the No. 1 team and favorite? Could we see a Michigan vs. Ohio State rematch in the national championship game? 

I won't be providing regular Picks, Opinions and Leans on all of the college bowl games as we did during the regular season on Top 25 games and the conference championship games. Other commitments and time over the holiday won't have me evaluating all the bowl games. But I've provided the Top 25 bowl matchups and betting lines below, and will try to dig deeper and provide more updates, picks and opinions as those games near between Christmas and the New Year.

As legal sports betting took off in the U.S. in 2018, I provided college football bowl picks and insight for various companies including OSGA. I was providing game insight and analysis for TwinSpires and Bet America as they launched, and in 2018 our rated plays picks went 18-5 ATS, opinions 14-4 ATS for a 32-9 ATS (78%) mark on all college bowl games that 2018 season. We crushed the bowls as well in 2015 when I provided picks to past clients and select Fairway Followers directly who I enjoyed corresponding with and providing picks and insight on the games. Additional past seasons and success included when I sold picks more than a decade ago as a leading national handicapper and analyst and discussed the games on Las Vegas and national radio as a top of the leaderboard handicapper and point spread prognosticator.  

Last season here at OSGA, I did provide college bowl previews and picks on the New Year's Six Day Bowl games. Picks went 1-2, Opinions 4-0 and Leans 1-0 for a 6-2 ATS finish. We'll try to chip in after Christmas again with more select picks and analysis. 

Betting the Bowls

Betting the bowls brings out more bettors and college football bowl pools are also popular. Many big bets are posted through social media and Twitter. Recreational bettors may feel like the college bowls are a great time to be betting more when reality is that it’s a time to be selective and understand the factors involved of handicapping the bowl games and the extra time between games from the end of the regular season. 

You’re going to see market and lines moves at the leading online sportsbooks as both lines and totals move, and some significantly. As I reported in Forbes with the College Football Bowl schedule, player opt-outs along with coaching changes, transfer portal, suspensions, injuries and players giving up on their teammates to sit out and prepare for the NFL Draft makes it much different than the past when handicapping and betting the bowls. 

That's part of the reason why I don't get into providing more picks and opinions, but rather selective bets including live betting as able with more evaluation of match-ups and determining motivation and factors that are affecting the games. One major online sportsbook reported that in the opening nine bowl games, three favorites had flipped and one total shifted more than 7 points from 44 to 37. 

While fundamental match-ups and statistical profiles are part of the handicapping process, other factors including motivation play a significant role in your point spread prognosis and pursuit of profit. We'll see more market moves and betting lines and totals shift, along with some late news on players that may miss games. So all that is in play along with the factors below when watching and wagering on the college bowls.

Additional factors are in play in handicapping the bowl games: 

- Motivation and excitement of selected bowl
- Point spreads, adjustments and major market moves
- ATS situations and profiles
- Injuries, suspension, distractions, players sitting out for NFL Draft
- Under-performing and Over-performing teams and season expectations
- Coaching success, changes, preparation
- Location of bowl, regional or home field advantage
- Look for coordinator changes, not just head coaching changes. First time play callers, offense or defense, are not in as good a situation to have success.

Who's taking over for the recent passing of Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach in the Jan. 2 ReliaQuest Bowl, and how will the players respond? Is Cincinnati okay with head coach Luke Fickell leaving for Wisconsin?

Top 25 Bowl Matchups and Betting Lines 

Current lines and totals courtesy of BetOnline 

Thursday, Dec. 29 

No. 12 Washington vs. No. 20 Texas (-4.5), Total 68 — Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Texas) | 9 p.m. | ESPN 

Friday, Dec. 30 

No. 19 South Carolina vs. No. 21 Notre Dame — Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida) | 3:30 p.m. | ESPN 
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Clemson (-6.5), Total 63.5— Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens, Florida) | 8 p.m. | ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 31 

No. 5 Alabama (-6) vs. No. 9 Kansas State, Total 56 — Sugar Bowl (New Orleans) | 12 p.m. | ESPN 
No. 2 Michigan (-7.5) vs. No. 3 TCU, Total 58 (CFP semifinal) — Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, Arizona) | 4 p.m. | ESPN
No. 1 Georgia (-6.5) vs. No. 4 Ohio State, Total 62.5 (CFP semifinal) — Peach Bowl (Atlanta) | 8 p.m. | ESPN 

Monday, Jan. 2 

No. 10 USC (-2.5) vs. No. 16 Tulane, Total 63 — Cotton Bowl (Arlington, Texas) | 1 p.m. | ESPN
No. 8 Utah (-2) vs. No. 11 Penn State, Total 52 — Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) | 5 p.m. | ESPN 

Advance National Championship Lines and Projections 

TCU vs Georgia (-15)
Michigan vs Georgia (-8)
Michigan vs Ohio State (-3)
TCU vs Ohio State (-10)

I'll try to add more stats, updates and notes of interest along the way. But you can reference and updates numbers from my season stat profiles of top, balanced offenses and defensive dominators and consider some of these teams especially in the underdog role.

Such was the case in the 2019 National Championship Game when we bet and called for Clemson (+6) to beat Alabama in my reporting and the Tigers rolled the 'Tide 44-16 with the elite, balanced offense led by freshman QB Trevor Lawrence along with a dominant defense.

It is a rare situation when you can get an underdog of at least a touchdown that is both a defensive dominator along with a high-powered balanced offense that both runs and passes for more than 250 yards per game. Clemson will be up to the challenge to beat Alabama and reward Tigers betting backers.

Let's see if we can chip-in a few more winners along with information you can bet on as the 2022 college bowl season moves ahead.

FairwayJay is a proven sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events. Follow FairayJay here at OSGA.com and on Twitter @FairwayJay for more sports and betting insights.