Will the Cleveland Cavaliers Continue to Crush in the Eastern Conference Finals?



The Cleveland Cavaliers have rolled over opponents so far in the NBA playoffs, but history shows this may not contnue in the Eastern Conference finals.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are rolling into the Eastern Conference finals having swept the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks. Now 8-0 in the playoffs, the Cavs have passed the Spurs as the second choice behind Golden State to win the NBA Championship and hoist the Larry O'Brien trophy. The Cavaliers are +200 to win the NBA title after opening the playoffs at +400.

To illustrate Cleveland's dominance in the Eastern Conference and expected favoritism in the East finals, the Cavaliers are projected to be nearly a 7-1 favorite over the #2 seed Toronto Raptors in the East finals after being -470 against the Atlanta Hawks. Toronto currently leads Miami 3-2 in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

But before you take off the rubber band and lay the big inflated price on the Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference finals, perhaps a little history lesson will curb your appetite on the Cavaliers.

Cleveland Cavaliers betting oddsThe Cavaliers won their eight playoff games this season by a combined +10.6 points per game. With a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving to complement King James, and the additional strength of Channing Frye, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Tristan Thompson, the Cavs are playing their best basketball.

In 2002, the first round of the NBA playoffs became best of 7 instead of best of 5. Since that time, four teams have started 8-0 sweeping the opening two series. As you'll see below, all four of those teams lost the conference finals series. And all four played Game 1 at home and failed to cover the point spread with three losing Game 1 outright.

2011-12 SAN ANTONIO:

The Spurs lost the last four games of the West finals to the Thunder; losing the series 4-2. San Antonio won their first eight games in the opening two rounds by better than +13 points per game. The regular season started December 25 and was shortened from the normal 82 games per team to 66 due to the fourth NBA lockout in history.

2009-10 ORLANDO:

The Magic lost 4-2 in the East finals to the Celtics after winning the first 2 rounds by +17 points per game going 7-1 ATS.

2008-09 CLEVELAND:

The Cavs lost 4-2 in the East finals to the Magic after winning the first 2 rounds by +16 points per game with all wins by at least 10 points going 7-0-1 ATS. Cleveland was 66-16 during the regular season with the best record in the NBA.

2004-05 MIAMI:

The Heat lost 4-3 in the East finals to the Pistons, including Games 6 and 7 in very low-scoring games. Miami had won the first 2 rounds by +10 points per game.

Note too that three of these teams were a #1 seed like Cleveland, and the other was a #2 seed. All were strong favorites to win the conference finals.

No doubt the Cavaliers are playing confident basketball with a cohesive core and solid complimentary players. But with history as your guide, buyer beware as you've been forwarned. At the very least, recognize the price will be prohibitive to support Cleveland. Perhaps supporting the Cavaliers as underdog should they reach the NBA finals is a more prudent play.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industries most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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