A look at first and second half betting for the NFL playoffs

NFL Playoff betting has many new and peculiar angles to face versus the typical Sunday card of football wagering action. Most noticeably, we don't have 12 to 14 games of action to focus a decision upon. Where it might be easy to toss many regular season games out for lack of interest or instant reasons to not feel any confidence, most all bettors have an urge to wager dollars on every playoff game. Let's face it, they're just too important and exciting to take a pass.

Alas, there are a multiple of wagering solutions added to the mix by all preferred offshore sportsbooks. The list of proposition bets increases dramatically once the playoff season begins. By the time the Super Bowl hits, you can spend an hour reading the menu of props available. Of course, we'll feature them and suggest only the best in an upcoming feature article.

But for now, let's spotlight one featured all season long and is by far, the most popular for good reason. The first half and second half bet. Simple and pure.

Why Half Betting is Popular

The pools for half betting have increased for several reasons. I think the most obvious is handicappers search to find a unique edge. To discover something others have missed. Like the first 5 innings line in baseball, half betting in football is all about handicapping and trend analysis. But keep in mind the FIRST half analytics are extremely different from the SECOND half, where INCENTIVE is the critical factor. And no doubt, the major contributor to setting the line, both for the half time game and total.

No doubt look for a huge spotlight on halftime action this Saturday and Sunday and next Saturday and Sunday, where only two playoff games will be on the card each day. Many bettors feel they have already lost their action (game line and/or total) for the entire game, often try to minimize their losses by recapturing funds by investing in "second-half" action. Or perhaps the other way in potentially adding to "sure wins".

First Half Wagering

This is far and away the less popular betting option of the two halves. Primarily because most bettors are focused upon their straight game action outcome. Also because both teams goal is winning the game, not the first half. The only near certainty is that wagering the underdog (or team getting points) for the first half plus the Over in the Totals wager will likely be more heavily bet. Expect to pay upward of -115 to as high as -140 for teams getting points and betting the Over in most of these games during the first half.

As an example, for Saturday evening's Detroit Lions-Seattle Seahawks playoff game at major offshore sportsbook Bovada, the Lions are +6 (-115) in the first half. Over the Total is 21.5 (-120). As the Seahawks are only a -8 favorite for the game and the Total is currently 43.5 at Bovada, expect this first half line to swing higher toward both these options.

Second Half Wagering

This is where the real frenzy begins considering we only have about ten minutes to make a smart decision and the bookmakers have only seconds trying to balance their action.

From experience, I can assure you bookmakers both in Nevada and offshore can never balance their action in this short of time. That is why the action is universally weighted on one side and the SMART MONEY is the most respected. Some advice here: don't try to outsmart it.

A tip here is to watch where the wagering action is being most heavily bet and go with it. Whether that be the favorite or underdog, over or under. Yes, we would like to wager our traditional -110 on every money line but that is not customary here. In the long run, taking a loss at -130 or so will out-live every four to five betting wins. Yes, teams do win at +115 but they are very unlikely compared to the traditional full game line. The smart money here is just too good and the very short ten-minute window bookmakers need to adjust, does not give them any opportunity to lay-off action nor find any edge against bettors.

In the second half, the key word is "incentive". Measuring that is highly reflected in the line set in either the second half line or total. For example, let say this Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers jump out to a 24-0 halftime lead over the Miami Dolphins. Currently the game line at preferred offshore sportsbooks BetOnline, Diamond Sports and Heritage is approximately Steelers -11 with the O/U at 46.

With that halftime scenario, the Steelers would be expected to sit on their lead and the desperate Dolphins passing at every moment in attempt to score. Also, that "original" 46 Total might be a bit factored in with weather and many other possibilities. Who knows? I would expect the Dolphins to be a -4.5 favorite in this example for the second half. But again, watch the wagering action online to get a feel for who the public (smart money) prefers. You only have a few minutes, so act fast.

Historical Reminder

I hate to bring this up, but about "sure bets at half time". Google "The Comeback" and check out the first entry popping up. The Buffalo Bills miracle 41-38 win over the Houston Oilers on January 3rd, 1993. Maybe the greatest playoff game of all-time but certainly the most memorable for gamblers. The Oilers were a -2.5 favorite over the Bills without injured QB Jim Kelly and up 28-3 at HALFTIME.

Sadly, Internet gambling and offshore wagering was not invented yet. Neither was halftime betting. I'm still counting my win on the Oilers -2.5 and cannot forget how sick I was after the game. If it was invented back then, am sure I would have bet "over" in the second half. Oh well.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.