Once the NFL playoff pairings are set, the odds to win Super Bowl LI will change dramatically

It's that week shoppers and bettors. Full of last minute savings and opportunities to nail down a price betting perhaps an overlooked NFL team to grab the Lombardi Trophy. Santa's prize jewel awarded to the victor of the Super Bowl.

What hurt perhaps for a few of us (including me) was betting too early.

Being a wise guy sensing a spectacular opportunity I laid down a wager on the Cincinnati Bengals at 50-1 at the end of September. Violating the most important rule created upon mankind: YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR. Yes, longshots do come in but in these cases, it's more "you get what you play for". And in this situation, we have a team playing for a lame duck head coach in Marvin Lewis, who undoubtedly will finally be fired on January 2nd after a long run with the Bengals. A mediocre, undisciplined team with no leadership on defense whatsoever. What was I thinking?

Perhaps I was going at this with the same mentality picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby in January, run the first week of May. It's simply too early to tell "about the horse". As bettors, we want to not only secure bragging rights after the race but gain a financial jackpot by proving our advanced brilliance above other people.

OK, knowing we can't change yesterday there's still prime chance making a profit focusing upon the most popular prop at major online sportsbooks: the 2017 Super Bowl Winner. Here's a current list of odds courtesy of top sportsbooks Bovada and Diamond Sports:

At first glance sanity rules and we must quickly eliminate at least 10 NFL teams on this list. Please don't waste your wagering dollars, no matter what tempting odds offered.

No Vikings, Redskins, Dolphins, Bucs, Titans, Colts, Texans, Ravens, Lions and even last year's winner the Denver Broncos. Here's where we start making a sliver of a case for a few teams that I also would like to quickly toss but keep alive due to reasonable odds and wagering value.

Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs

Of this list, believe it or not the Packers are the WORST value at +1200 at Bovada and not much better at Diamond Sports at +1401. We're getting that because they are the "Packers", based on past reputation and QB Aaron Rodgers deserved star power. Their current resurgence has added some confidence but the Pack still are very suspect on defense and running the ball. Also, their diminished seeding will insure they will not be playing the NFL Championship Game in Green Bay before playing a better AFC team in the Super Bowl. I say more around 20-1 if you can find it.

I like the Kansas City Chiefs and their head coach Andy Reid. Certainly, the experience with many AFC Championship games plus one Super Bowl appearance. The problem here is they've lived off turnovers all year long, which is a noble asset. But can you drive a team through the playoffs and to win a SB on that? I don't think so. KC has a very solid defense and a very reliable QB in Alex Smith. But the Chiefs seem to be one year away putting their offense together with another weapon on offense. Their main obstacle is the Patriots and possibly the Steelers in the way. In the NFC, an easier road.

New York Giants and Atlanta Falcons

Two very intriguing wagers depending on which team you prefer solely due to their path. That is, not having to play the New England Patriots or maybe Pittsburgh Steelers in Pittsburgh before getting to destination Houston in the bowl. There is one game to win. And ask Eli and the Giants. They did it before against an undefeated, much better Patriots team.

That's where I give the slight edge, certainly in value here to the New York "football" Giants. This is a peaking team with a very experienced QB in Eli Manning but not many experienced players. The team that won the Super Bowl previously was. Best case to make here is that there just isn't one "great" NFL team this season to dominate.

As for the Atlanta Falcons, they are the better team, certainly on offense. Big question as always is will they ever play defense in big games. And win close games in the 4th quarter. Two giant questions (no pun intended) that make them suspect and why they are around 16-1. It's difficult to imagine them beating the Patriots or potentially the Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers make them an underdog as well.

Oakland Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks

Here's where it begins to get interesting and where one might take a reasonable risk. The Raiders currently at 12-1 at Bovada and comparatively 14-1 even better at Diamond Sports have been playing solid football all year long. QB Derek Carr is a surprise MVP candidate while the unsung, underrated Oakland defense has been solid. Whether that can carry them all the way is questionable. But no doubt we're getting fair odds. One thing's certain. Should the black and silver pull off this great story, you can put away those shovels for those Las Vegas stadium plans for now.

As for the Steelers, as always, it's up to the defense, case closed. Big Ben Roethlisberger and company will put up the points but can they stop the opposition. Another factor is coach Mike Tomlin strange habit lately of taking unnecessary risks, especially his fascination with the two-point conversion. Maybe because the Steelers kicking game always is undependable.

The Seattle Seahawks have the formula to win it all. A very good QB in Russell Wilson who doesn't turn the ball over plus the NFL's best overall defense. That will win you a Super Bowl. The "gray area" is not being able to score enough points when necessary against the NFL's best teams. Look for them in the NFC Championship Game. From there it will likely take very close wins in that game plus the Super Bowl to secure about a 5-1 investment.

Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots

Our two favorites and right now the best odds we're likely going to get. Therefore, if you like either of these teams to win the Super Bowl, BUY NOW!!

My negative feeling on wagering the Cowboys has nothing to do with their chances to win the SB. As the #1 NFC seed plus playing two potential games in Dallas they have a great shot to be no less than a +3 underdog in the big game. The two minuses are depending on two excellent rookies on offense in QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott to lead the way with no playoff experience.

More important, beyond anything on the field, bettors have missed the boat. Dallas was at least 15-1 to 25-1 to win the Super Bowl starting the season carrying into the first week of October. Expect that current 5-1 price to diminish even further as 2017 begins.
The current future line on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl is a "glass half empty-glass half filled" debate. At slightly more than 2-1 the Pats are no bargain without future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski returning to action. Then again, we can expect "deflated pricing" no matter who joins The Brady Bunch. Sorry, I couldn't resist that.

Then again, doubling your money on the most dependable, proven best team in the NFL is not such a bad plan to consider. One that we all might feel foolish about in early February. Like that Kentucky Derby favorite in January, sometimes the best horse does win the first week of May.

Super Bowl Wagering Strategy

A potentially profitable move may be hedging part of your last chance future wagering dollars involving TWO teams. Play a percentage on one of the AFC favorites (ex: Steelers) with a designated percentage on one of the NFC longshot teams (ex: Falcons). The dream of course is they meet in Super Bowl LI with a guarantee payoff. Just please don't bet on the Colts or Bucs. Give to the Salvation Army instead.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.