Iowa State Looks Poised for Road Win at Ole Miss

Top-25 match-up Saturday as No. 24 Iowa State (14-5) travels to Oxford, MS to hit the hardwood against No. 20 Ole Miss (14-4) in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Both teams enter off a tough loss with Iowa State losing at perennial power Kansas Monday 80-76 as a 5-point underdog. Ole Miss was blasted at Alabama 74-53 as a near pick ‘em. The Cyclones have covered three straight and have the balance and strong senior guard/forward combo to get this road win.

ESPN carries the broadcast coverage at 12:00 ET from The Pavilion.

The Line and ATS Results

This line may have been 4-5 points favoring Ole Miss had the Rebels not got blasted last time out at Alabama, 74-53. But that loss combined with Mississippi’s first home loss Jan. 15 to LSU 83-69 has the over-achieving Rebels coming back to median. The line at the leading online sportsbooks is likely to be 3-points or less favoring Ole Miss, who is 8-1 SU at home and tied with Virginia with a nation-best 15-3 ATS mark. But Iowa State is the better team on offense, defense and 11-6-2 ATS this season including 3-0 ATS run which includes a win over No. 14 Texas Tech and their tough, close loss at No. 9 Kansas last time out, 80-76.

Iowa State ranks top-15 in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to Kenpom, and the Cyclones are also top-25 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Both are better than Ole Miss, who has performed better than expected this season under first-year coach Kermit Davis. The new Rebels coach has brought the successful spread offense used at Middle Tennessee State to help Ole Miss average 77.7 points per game this season. But the recent losses to Alabama and LSU are a concern, as those two teams rank last in the SEC in FG% defense. Iowa State’s defense is much better and forces teams into very long possessions and often unwanted shots as the clock runs down. This is an improving, balanced and well-coached Cyclones team under Steve Prohm.  

LSU forced 16 Ole Miss turnovers in the Rebels only home loss 10 days ago. LSU leads the SEC in steals, and Iowa State leads the Big 12 in steals. The Cyclones also have solid senior leadership and inside/outside strength from Michael Jacobson (13.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 58.5% FG) and Marial Shayok (19.8 PPG, 50.8% FG). Iowa State has some quality freshman contributing major minutes and production, and the Cyclones are the Big 12’s highest-scoring team at 78.5 PPG while also a solid defensive team that leads the league in steals and No. 2 in scoring margin.

Ole Miss will try to spread the floor and pick up the pace with lead guards Breein Tyree (17.1 PPG) and Terence Davis (15.8 PPG), the team’s leading 3-point shooter and rebounder. The Rebels top-4 scorers are guards. Ole Miss averages 77.7 PPG as a solid shooting team hitting 48.8% FG. But the rest of the numbers are not as strong as Iowa State, and while the Rebels bench can go deeper, it will take some foul trouble against Iowa State to keep the Cyclones from reaching their anticipated production and efficiency.

Iowa State just missed with narrow road losses at No. 9 Kansas and Baylor recently, and both those teams and are stronger than Ole Miss. The road win over No. 14 Texas Tech Jan. 16 is an indication how good Iowa State can be as they won despite shooting just 24% from the 3-point line. The Cyclones protected the basketball as is their strength, and the all-around balance combined with the better adjusted offense and defense while not giving up much at all on the boards makes Iowa State a live road ‘Dog and your winner Saturday.   

College Basketball Pick – Iowa State

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