Free Pick on Bucks -

Milwaukee is showing some great value here as a 4.5-point favorite against the Kings on Wednesday. The Bucks snapped a 3-game skid with a 109-88 blowout win at home over the Pistons and I look for them to carry over that momentum against Sacramento. 

The key here is Milwaukee is catching the Kings in a good spot. Sacramento will be concluding their 5-game road trip without their best player, as DeMarcus Cousins is doubtful with a back injury. The Kings are 0-5 without Cousins in the lineup and blew a 22-point lead in a 122-127 loss at Charlotte after he left with an injury. Sacramento is also just 1-5 on the road this season. 

Kings are just 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games against the Eastern Conference and have a history of not showing up against bad teams. Sacramento is 9-20-3 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record. Adding to this is a strong system. Road teams who saw their previous game go over the total by 24 or more points against an opponent that has gone over the total by 42 or more combined points in their last 5 are just 19-44 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee! 

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