Preview and picks for every Breeders' Cup race on Saturday



Harltey examines every race on the Saturday card for the 35th running of the Breeders' Cup, with picks and longshots for the feature races.

Selections for each of the Breeders' cup races

The 35th running of the Breeders' Cup continues on Saturday at Churchill Downs. These are some of the most competitive and richest races in the world, many feature the top thoroughbreds on the planet. Predictions for each of the Breeders' Cup races are below.

Filly and Mare Sprint

Marley’s Freedom is the 8/5 morning line favorite after 4 consecutive impresses finishes in California and New York including a dominating win in excellent time at the Ballerina Stakes at Saratoga. Marley’s Freedom had a very lackluster year in 2016 and showed a bit of promise in 2017, but she turned things around dramatically after Bob Baffert took over her training. That remarkable turnaround is what Baffert is famous for and what causes many skeptics to wonder what he does as a trainer to turn average horses into champions. If the horse can run the same race as she did in the Ballerina she’ll be tough to beat. Selcourt appears to be her toughest competition. Selcourt actually beat Marley’s Freedom by almost 5 lengths in March and also beat Skye Diamonds who is also given a chance here fairly easily in the race prior to that. Selcourt was laid off following that March victory and hasn’t raced since. One thus must question whether she is ready. Her time of 1:21 in the March race was by far the fastest of any horse here at that distance and she has trained well since. One big disadvantage is that she has drawn the rail. Finley’sluckycharm ran a stinker in this race last year but has won 2 Grade 1 races in 2018 and looked ready to challenge Marley’s Freedom in the Ballerina before faltering. Several handicappers believe she can rebound. Mia Mischief has run some decent races, including a decent second place finish to Dream Tree, who would likely have been favored here had she not withdrawn, and she loves Churchill Downs with two victories and a second in three races, including an impressive Grade 2 victory. Of the others, Golden Mischief and Chalon appear to be the only ones with a realistic chance of pulling the upset although Dream Pauline is undefeated with consecutive victories almost a year apart in New York. 

Filly and Mare Sprint Prediction: Winner: Marley’s Freedom (8/5). 2nd Choice: Selcourt (4/1). Long Shot Pick: Mia Mischief (15/1)

Turf Sprint

Always a tough race to handicap, the top three finishers from last year’s race return for an encore. Stormy Liberal pulled off a 30/1 upset at Del Mar with a charge in the stretch, but he didn’t look that good in three races after. Although, he did win his last three races by less than a length each time, including another nose victory over Richard’s Boy, who finished 2nd last year. To be perfectly honest other than that race, Richard’s Boy has not looked that good and was well beaten in Dubai by both Stormy Liberal and Conquest Tsunami. The latter horse has been close, but consistently losing to both Stormy Liberal and Disco Partner. Disco Partner was the 3rd place finisher last year, but has been the most impressive since. He has concentrated in New York and won the Belmont Turf Sprint by over 4 lengths, achieving a very impressive Beyer figure. He is arguably in the best form of all those mentioned. World of Trouble caught the interest of many following two great wins in New York including a 5 ½ length win in the Allied Forces Stakes, as did Bucchero, who charged through the stretch to win the Grade 2 Woodford Stakes at Keeneland. Of the European horses, Havana Grey and Lost Treasure make the most appeal. Havana Grey has had two Group 1 wins in Ireland, but has struggled in some races in the UK and threw in a stinker in France. Lost Treasure has yet to win a graded race, although he did only lose by a length in that race in France, where Havana Grey was well beaten. Lost Treasure has run an incredible number of races of late including one on October 8th, one on October 14th and one on October 19th. While that is more common in Europe than North America, to run so many races with no rest, one must wonder if the horse will just be too tired to put in a real challenge here.

Turf Sprint Prediction: Winner: Disco Partner (7/2). 2nd Choice: Stormy Liberal (4/1) Long Shot Pick: Bucchero (10/1)

breeders cup pick and tipsDirt Mile

Only 10 horses compete here and after the withdrawals from Promises Fulfilled and Whitmore, who chose to race in the sprint, Catalina Cruiser becomes the prohibitive favorite. The horse has run 4 times, winning each easily. His last two races were in Grade 2 Stakes at Del Mar, which he won by a combined 14 lengths. He clearly loves the distance and the only question is how well he will run in his first East coast race. City of Light appears to be his biggest challenger. The horse ended 2017 with an impressive wire to wire victory in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes and he followed it up with Grade 1 wins at Santa Anita and Oaklawn Park. He then ran a very credible third to Accelerate, who will be favored in the Breeders Cup Classic at the Gold Cup in Santa Anita and finished it with a loss to Whitmore in the Forego, although it was clear he would have possibly won with the extra furlong the mile brings. Seeking the Soul warmed up for this with an impressive victory at Churchill Downs last month with a commanding win in the Ack Ack over the 1 mile distance and Firenze Fire was trounced in the Kentucky Derby, but followed that with three decent races, including a record performance over 1 mile in the Dwyer Stakes, winning by 9 lengths. Bravazo is intriguing just because of the races he has run. He ran all three Triple Crown races and even recorded a second place finish to Justify in the Preakness and he followed that up with in-the-money performances in the Haskell and Travers Stakes before finishing it with a clunker at Philadelphia Park. He has since trained very well. The other horses appear to have little chance.

Dirt Mile Prediction: Winner: City of Light (5/2). Second Choice: Bravazo (20/1). Long Shot Pick: None – since Bravazo is the 2nd pick

Filly and Mare Turf

A race that is usually dominated by European horses, this year’s version shouldn’t be much different. Fourstar Crook is the only true North American horse with a chance and he has been impressive, trading wins with Sistercharlie in New York and at Keeneland and winning impressively in her last race at the Flower Bowl Handicap. Sistercharlie started her career in France and had some okay races, but turned it around since coming to North America. She tends to lay well back and make a charge in the stretch and it has worked well with three wins and two narrow misses in five races, including 3 Grade 1 victories. Wild Illusion will likely go off as the favorite and rightly so. The Godolphin horse has three Group 1 victories to her credit, including two in France and one in Britain. The win in the Prix de l’Opera (which is considered the 2nd most important race on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day) was particularly impressive, where he took the lead and held on strongly to defeat Magic Wand, who is trained by Aiden O’Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. Eziyra is also given a chance with two wins in Ireland of late as is A Raving Beauty who started his career in Germany and Italy but has had some close finishes in the U.S., including a Grade 1 race at Keeneland in her latest.

Filly and Mare Turf Prediction: Winner: Wild Illusion (7/2). Second Choice: Sistercharlie (3/1). Long Shot Pick: Eziyra (15/1)

Sprint

Always a fun race to watch! Last year’s winner Roy H returns to defend as does Imperial Hint, who was run down by Roy H at the wire. That race was a classic and both horses have run well since. Roy H ran three times in California winning two races, including the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in his last race. Imperial Sprint has run five times, winning four of them, with his only loss on a sloppy track he never got a feel for. His last two wins in New York were in Grade 1 races, including the important Vosburgh Invitational, which has been a good predictor of the winner for the Sprint in the past. Promises Fulfilled was demolished in the Kentucky Derby, but has won three straight races in New York, including the H.A. Jerkins Stakes, a Grade 1 setup for this race. And Whitmore won the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in August before just getting nipped by Promises Fulfilled in his last race at Saratoga. Limousine Liberal competed against both Promises Fulfilled and Whitmore and came up short to both although he closed well at the end, so if the pace is wicked he could prove an upset. None of the other horses appear to have a realistic chance.

Sprint Prediction: Winner: Imperial Hint (9/5). Second Choice: Roy H (5/2). Long Shot Pick: None

Mile

Arguably the most open race in the Breeders' Cup, there is no horse that stands out and no horse that can be entirely discarded. It has been raining steadily at Churchill Downs, which means it will likely be a soft turf and that could hurt the chances of Oscar Performance. The horse looks among the best on paper after winning the Woodbine Mile in impressive fashion, but he struggled on a softer turf at Churchill Downs and Keeneland last year. Mind you, he did win the Pilgrim Stakes on yielding turf at Belmont in 2016. Nevertheless, he is susceptible in these conditions. Polydream appears to be the one to beat after two impressive wins in France. In her last race, she got trapped on the rail and never found any racing room, so her loss in that one can be tossed out. Her trainer Freddie Head has a great record in the few Breeders' Cup races he has sent a horse to run in. One Master won that race in France where Polydream was trapped at 47/1 odds, but otherwise hasn’t done much in cheaper races. Expert Eye is one to watch for Michael Stoute who has trained numerous Breeders Cup winners. The horse has run against top company and has been competitive. The same holds true for Analyze It, Lightning Spear, I Can Fly and Gustav Klimpt. Happily may be the upset here though. The Aiden O’Brien trained horse has been running against the best horses in Europe at a mile and has been competitive in all of them, albeit he rarely wins.

Mile Prediction: Winner: Expert Eye (8/1). Second Choice: Oscar Performance (6/1). Long Shot Pick: Happily (15/1)

Distaff

If she is at her best, Monmoy Girl will be hard to beat. She has eight wins in 10 races, although it could have been 9 after she won the Cotillin Stakes in her last race, but was disqualified for drifting in the stretch. Prior to that she won four straight Grade 1 races, including the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs over this distance. She can go to the lead or rate well and close. On paper she is clearly the best of the field. Abel Tasman finished 2nd in this race last year and then won two Grade 1 races in New York, but he got trounced in his last race at Santa Anita after he bobbled at the start and could never recover. His trainer insists she came out of the race fine. Midnight Bisou was placed first in the Cotillon Stakes after Monmoy Girl drifted, but she lost to Monmoy Girl twice before that by fairly large margins. Nevertheless, she is in good form. Her biggest issue may be that she hasn’t fared well at the 1 1/8-mile distance in the past. Wow Cat was extremely impressive in the Beldame Stakes at Belmont over this distance winning by over three lengths as the 6/5 favorite, although she was beaten by 10 lengths to Abel Tasman in the race before that. And Vale Dori won the Zenyatta Stakes, the race where Abel Tasman bobbled, but showed little prior to that in 2018. Still, she was very impressive in 2017, winning several races in California, including a Grade 1 Stakes, so that win may be suggesting she has turned her fortunes around. The intriguing horse in the field is Wonder Godot. The Canadian horse ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies last year and didn’t embarrass herself and then just lost to Monmoy Girl in the Kentucky Oaks. Monmoy Girl then romped in the two top Canadian three-year-old races and got demolished in the Travers Stakes, where no one expected her to really do anything in.  That said, the Kentucky Oaks race seems to suggest that she can compete here.  

Distaff Prediction: Winner: Monmoy Girl (2/1). Second Choice: Vale Dori (12/1). Long Shot Pick: Wonder Gadot (15/1)

Turf

It’s always exciting when the best horse in Europe decides to race in the Breeders' Cup and that happens this year with Enable. The lightly raced champion horse has won 9 of 10 races, including the Investec Oaks, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes and most importantly consecutive Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe races and she won them all easily. The horse is being compared to Frankel who dominated European racing a couple of years back. She likes both the firm and soft turfs and it’s hard to spot any flaws. Her jockey Frankie Dettori is on record saying she is among the best horses he ever rode and Dettori has ridden many champions. It will be tough to see her lose, but if she does it may be to Waldgeist, who finished 4th to Enable in the last Arc race. The horse is trained by Andre Fabre, who like Bob Baffert always seems to find a way to win with the most improbable horses on Breeders Cup day and he has the 12 post which could be helpful to avoid traffic trouble. Talismanic is another Andre Fabre horse and he won the Breeders' Cup Turf last year at Del Mar at 14/1 odds. Unfortunately, Talismanic hasn’t shown much since, but as I said, Andre Fabre always has a way of making his horses run their best in important races. Magical was well beaten by Enable in the Arc but was very impressive at Ascot a couple of weeks ago, winning the British Champion Stakes by open lengths on a soft turf. It’s quite possible if the ground comes up very soft it will benefit him the most. And an Aiden O’Brien trained horse ridden by Ryan Moore can never be counted out. Of the horses racing in North America Channel Maker, Robert Bruce and Glorious Empire have all shown ability and won Grade 1 races but they just don’t seem to have the class of the European invaders.

Turf Prediction: Winner: Enable (1/1). Second Choice: Magical (10/1). Long Shot Pick: Talismanic (12/1)

Breeders Cup Classic picksClassic

Like most Classics, this one looks tough. Accelerate will likely be the favorite with his recent form. After disappointing in the Breeders Cup Mile last year, he moved out in distance this year and seems to have found his distance. He dominated in the Santa Anita Handicap on a wet track which this may be, and then went on to romp in the Gold Cup and Pacific Classic, ending it with a convincing win last time in the Awesome Again stakes, despite a bad start. But one has to question the competition he faced other than City of Light and West Coast there have been no real horses of note that he beat. He could be vulnerable. West Coast finished 3rd in the Classic last year and then lost to Gun Runner in the Pegasus World Cup (hardly an embarrassment), 2nd to Thunder Snow in Dubai and then 2nd in the Awesome Again. He appears to be a bit behind Accelerate but you can never count out a Bob Baffert trained horse. Thunder Snow won the World Cup in Dubai but lost badly in Europe and just lost in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park, where he beat Mendelssohn. He just doesn’t seem to be the type of horse who wins the Classic. Mendelssohn won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year, came back for the Kentucky Derby, where he was demolished after having a horrible trip and was eventually eased and most recently finished in the money in three New York races. Ryan Moore booked off important rides in Europe so he could race Mendelssohn in New York, which says how much he believes in his ability. T

he winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Discreet Lover won at 45/1 odds, but showed absolutely nothing until that time so until he wins again it will have to be considered a fluke. McKinzie comes in very highly regarded for Bob Baffert with four wins in five starts, including the San Felipe and the Pennsylvania Derby. The time in that race, however, was not impressive, so one must wonder if he’s in the same league as the others. Catholic Boy is very intriguing after winning three consecutive races, including the Travers Stakes, which he won by over 4 lengths and Yoshida who ran his whole career on grass decided to try the dirt for the first time in the Woodward Stakes, and he charged through the stretch to win by two lengths. The question is how much speed is in this race for him to run at? Mendelssohn will almost certainly set the pace, but it may not be that fast. Mind Your Biscuits is also intriguing. A former sprinter, he decided to expand beyond a mile lately and that paid off with a 2nd place finish in the Whitney Stakes and a dominating win in a Grade 3 race at Churchill Downs. The question is whether he can make a mile and a quarter work against this field. The one real question mark is the European invader Roaring Lion. The horse had one race on dirt at Kempton Park last year where he romped to victory and this year has been dominant with 5 wins including four straight Group 1 wins. Arguably trainer John Gosden thinks he has a better chance here than against Enable in the Turf. A win certainly wouldn’t be a shock. Of the rest, Pavel, Collected and Gunnevera appear to be the only others with a legitimate shot.

Classic Prediction: Winner: Catholic Boy (8/1). Second Choice: Yoshida (10/1). Long Shot Pick: Roaring Lion (20/1)

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