Preakness Stakes Betting Preview and Horse Profiles



Analysis of all ten starters in the 142nd Preakness stakes with picks and plays for the betting window.

Always Dreaming Prohibitive Favorite in Preakness at Pimlico

The oddsmakers have made Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming (4-5) the prohibitive favorite in the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Ten of the last 20 Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness, and trainer Todd Pletcher says his colt Always Dreaming is ready to run another big race in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

"He's shown us everything we were hoping for leading us back in two weeks," Pletcher said Thursday morning. "Tank seems full. He seems eager to go. We're just trying to keep him on the ground one more day."

Always Dreaming took to the Pimlico track earlier this week and following his work Pletcher noted, "What we're seeing out there gives us the same feel we were getting at Churchill. He's on it. He's feeling good. He's high energy."

Preakness Stakes analysisPletcher is 0-for-9 in the Preakness, and is hoping Always Dreaming is the one to give him his first Preakness winner in 10 tries. Four other Derby horses are running in the Preakness. Did you know that 30 of the last 33 Preakness winners also raced in the Kentucky Derby? Our Kentucky Derby preview provided us a nice score on Always Dreaming (9-2) while also hitting the $1 exacta for $168 multiple times.

Here's a look at the horses and profiles as we shoot to pick out the Preakness winner and small payday. Limited wagering with Always Dreaming keyed on top in a trifecta with Classic Empire and Gunnevera in both 2nd and 3rd, with Conquest Mo Money and Senior Investment also in 3rd. A $1 trifecta would cost $6 (4/5,6/5,6,8,10). If you also add 8,10 to 2nd place, the ticket would cost $12. A $1 exacta 4/5,6,8,10 costs $4. I will also bet Gunnevera to win and on top in the same trifecta for $6 (6/4,5/4,5,8,10).

Favorite: Always Dreaming (4-5)

Always Dreaming won the Kentucky Derby impressively running along the front end and finishing strong down the lane. Trainer Todd Pletcher is pleased with how the Bodemeister colt came out of the Derby, and Always Dreaming will break from the No 4 post and carry the bullseye on his back in the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes.

Always Dreaming is the only horse in the Preakness field to win at 1 1/4 miles along with two races at 1 1/8 miles. Always Dreaming has proven speed with push-button acceleration and versatility, and he has shown the ability to extend down the stretch in winning the Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby.

This year's Preakness field appears to lack early speed. Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money (outside No. 10 post) are the two horses that should be on or near the lead, but neither has been on the early lead in any of their races. However without fast fractions or a head-to-head speed duel, the race should set up very well for Always Dreaming. Jockey John Velazquez should have plenty of horse left as they turn for home in the Preakness Stakes. The steep price and favoritism make it far less attractive as a win wager, but we'll stick with our Derby winner to deliver again in the Preakness as Always Dreaming makes if 5-for-5 in 2017.

Contenders: Classic Empire (3-1) and Gunnevera (15-1)

Classic Empire was the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby and finished 4th. A troubled trip on a sloppy track saw him sideswiped and hammered off stride between rivals early, regrouped to pick up steam and went five wide on the far turn. He was interrupted in the stretch being bumped and carried out before churning on to the finish. He ran a good race despite all the trouble he encountered, and according to Trakus, Classic Empire traveled 75 more feet than Derby winner Always Dreaming.

A victory in the Preakness would make Classic Empire only the 8th juvenile male champion to capture the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown since the Eclipse Awards were created in 1971. It would also boost his career earning to over $3 million should he capture the $900,000 first place prize.

With the race a football field shorter than the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness requires the horses to get in a better position they like a little earlier. Jockey Julien Leparoux will get a better break from the gate (No. 5 post) and Classic Empire should have the best fighting chance to get first run at the leaders and Derby champ when they make the run down the stretch.

We liked Gunnevera as a long shot of interest in the Kentucky Derby, and he took race day money but finished 7th and was unable to fire down the lane following a less than favorable trip. But the impressive Fountain of Youth winner came out of the Derby in good shape, and his trainer Antonio Sano says he is "sound" and will be ready for a better run in the Preakness. Gunnevera jogged 2 miles over the Churchill track following the Derby and came off the track "bouncing" according to Sano. In his final work Wednesday morning at Pimlico, Gunnevera tacked on an additional 3 furlongs to his 1 1/8 mile gallop. Sano was very pleased with what he saw and believes Gunnevera's easy run and strong finish suggests he likes the track and surface.

Traditionally, this track is considered to be faster than Churchill Downs. Although both courses use the same dirt, Pimlico's surface is firmer which allows horses to get better traction. Gunnevera will get a more favorable trip in the Preakness, and not deal with rain or a wet and sloppy track. He'll likely be in better position to make a move at the leaders down the stretch. Recall Gunnevera was the 6-5 favorite in the Florida Derby, but had a terrible outside post draw at Gulfstream, where it's most difficult to be positioned properly with the short run to the first turn. He couldn't catch Always Dreaming that day or in the Derby, but Gunnevera's combination of speed and closing ability makes him a contender at a very favorable price in the Preakness.

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With less front-running speed in this year's Preakness, Gunnevera should be able to sit closer to the leaders. He's a late runner, but at Pimlico, and especially in this race, you've got to have your position to the quarter pole. So Gunnevera will need to be a lot closer to the front than he was in the Derby.

Hall of Fame Jockey 'Big Money' Mike Smith will take over and ride Gunnevera in the Preakness with regular rider Javier Castellano switching to Cloud Computing for major client and trainer Chad Brown.

Could Surprise: Conquest Mo Money (15-1)

Conquest Mo Money is a well-bred colt by Uncle Mo, whos trainer Todd Pletcher said was as good as any mare he has trained. Conquest Mo Money won his first three races in New Mexico including a pair of minor stakes in 2017. He then stepped up to graded stakes company and finished 2nd behind Hence in the Sunland Derby and 2nd by a half-length behind Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby.

Conquest Mo Money was slotted on the far outside gates in each race, but broke to the lead in the Arkansas Derby and sustained it into the deep stretch before Classic Empire caught him in the waning strides. He still finished in front of late closing Lookin At Lee, who went on to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. Regular rider Jorge Carreno, 34, says the colt keeps getting better and took to the Pimlico track well in his first gallop going 1-mile Tuesday.

Conquest Mo Money is one of the few speed horses that should be on or near the early lead challenging Derby winner Always Dreaming. This colt has the talent, speed and pedigree to make a move in the Preakness and keep his perfect 5-for-5 in the money finish streak intact. He'll have to be up to the challenge against more proven winners in the Preakness, but with odds of 15-1 or greater, Conquest Mo Money could trigger another solid payoff for bettors and his owners.

Long Shots: Lookin At Lee (10-1), Cloud Computing (12-1), Hence (20-1), Multiplier (30-1), Senior Investment (30-1), Term of Art (30-1)

Lookin At Lee made a late run along the rail and rallied to place 2nd in the Kentucky Derby at 33-1 odds. He made our Derby a more profitable one as we hit the $1 exacta for $168 four times. But this Steve Asmussen trained colt won't be such a huge overlay in the Preakness Stakes. Lookin At Lee's closing speed in both the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby proves he's capable if the fractions are fast and the conditions are right, but we're lookin' elsewhere in the Preakness.

Cloud Computing is a lightly raced colt who broke his maiden in February. He finished 3rd in the Wood Memorial last time out, and has been training very well for trainer Chad Brown. But Cloud Computing does not have enough speed or the closing kick to give Brown his first Triple Crown victory.

Hence was settled well back in the Derby, steadied off heels leaving the five sixteenths and swung wide before moving up to finish 11th. He was passing six tired horses at the end and trainer Steve Asmussen said Hence "never leveled off and didn't run hard enough" in the Derby. But Asmussen, a 2-time Preakness winning trainer, was happy with how Hence came out of the Derby and had remarked previously that Hence has "tremendous talent". Hence was a 'wise guy' long shot choice in the Kentucky Derby at 15-1. He'll go off at least that price in the Preakness, and while the chestnut colt and Sunland Derby winner should get a better trip in the Preakness, will he be too far back and show the necessary speed to rally off a moderate pace? We won't include Hence in our horizontal or win wagers.

Multiplier has a sprint pedigree and won the 1 1/8 mile Illinois Derby in a very fast time. His Beyer Speed Figure of 88 in the Illinois Derby suggests he won't run with the top class horses in the Preakness.

Senior Investment is a tall and physically imposing chestnut colt who won the 1 1/16 mile Lexington Stakes (G3) on the short stretch at Keeneland coming from well off the pace to win by a head at 11-1 odds. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt is quickly improving and working very well, and he'll be overlooked at the wagering window on Preakness day despite crossing the finish line 1st in four of his last five races (one DQ). Senior Investment's career-best 89 Beyer Speed Figure in the Lexington suggests he has a lot of ground to make up against a stronger Preakness field, but we'll include him in our horizonal wagers in hopes for a bigger payday.

Term of Art is by 2-time Breeders' Cup Classic winner Tiznow, but he's 0-for-4 as a 3-year-old and has seemingly been outclassed. Trainer Doug O'Neill says they are going to "roll the dice" in the Preakness. We say they "crap out".

Best wishes for more winners at the races, and in your pursuit of profit in the Preakness.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Read more great insights from Jay here and follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay


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