Three Live Dogs for Sunday NFL action

New England Patriots @ Chicago Bears 1:00 PM ET
Game# 453-454

Presently (10/16), Bovada has the Bears listed as a 3.5-point home underdog for their game on Sunday against New England.

Chicago has been an extremely profitable home underdog in recent seasons. Specifically, since 10/31/2016, the Bears are a terrific 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog at Soldier Field, including 3-0 SU&ATS (+10.0 PPG) when facing an opponent with a win percentage of .666 or better.

Chicago is coming off last Sunday’s 31-28 overtime loss at Miami in a game they closed as a 7.0-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-2 (.600).

New England is coming off a thrilling 43-40 home win this past Sunday night over previously undefeated Kansas City. That victory improved New England to 4-2 (.666). You may be surprised to know, since 2012, New England has gone 1-8 SU&ATS as an away favorite of 4.0-ponts or less following a straight up win.

Any NFL non-division home underdog of 5.0-points or less (Bears), coming off an away favorite straight up loss in which they allowed 26 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .600 or worse, versus an opponent (Patriots) coming off a straight up win where it allowed 7 points or greater, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1985. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests was a sizable 10.5 points per game.
Pick: Chicago Bears +3.5

Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles 1:00 PM ET
Game# 459-460

As of 10/17, BetOnline is listing Carolina as a 5.0-point road underdog for Sunday’s game at Century Link Field in Philadelphia.

Philadelphia is coming off a 34-13 road win against the Giants in its previous game. That win improved the Eagles season record to 3-3 (.500). Carolina has gone an extremely profitable 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an away underdog of 9.0-points or less when facing an opponent coming off a straight up win. Furthermore, since 12/7/2014, the Panthers are 5-0 SU&ATS in that identical situation when their opponent has a win percentage of worse than .800, and they won by a decisive average of 15.8 points per game.

Carolina is coming off a 28-17 loss at Washington last Sunday. They also failed to cover that contest as a 1.0-point favorite. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-2 (.600). Under the guidance of current head coach Ron Rivera, the Panthers are an incredible 22-3 ATS (88%) following a road loss in their previous game, and that includes 13-1 ATS (92.9%) when they’ve been an underdog.

Any NFL away underdog of 3.0 to 7.5 points (Carolina) who’s coming off a road favorite straight up loss, and currently possesses a win percentage of .510 to .600, resulted in those road underdogs going 12-0 ATS since 1981. Those underdogs also won 8 of those 12 games straight up.
Pick: Carolina Panthers +5.0

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Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts 1:00 PM ET
Game# 461-462

According to the current NFL betting odds at 5Dimes, Buffalo is a 9.0-point underdog against Indianapolis.

Indianapolis has gone 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3 games, and they allowed 37 points or more on each occasion. The Colts have committed 9 turnovers during this present losing streak. Conversely, they’ll be facing a Buffalo team which has forced 11 turnovers over their last 4 contests.

Rookie first round draft choice and staring quarterback Josh Allen was injured in last week’s 20-14 loss at Houston. Nevertheless, it’s not like their offense has been productive with Allen under center. As a matter of fact, the Bills have scored 13 points or fewer in each of its previous 3 games. Yet, they managed to come away with a 13-12 win over Tennessee 2 weeks ago.

The Bills defense has been sensational since the 2nd half of Game 2 against the Chargers. Buffalo has an NFL ranking of #3 in total defense, and they’ve sacked opposing quarterbacks 16 times over the past 4 games.
Any NFL away underdog of 9.5-points or less (Bills) who’s playing after game 6 of the season, and they scored 14 points or fewer in each of its previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Colts) with at least 1 win and they allowed 30 points or more during their previous outing, resulted in road underdogs going 45-12 ATS (78.9%) since 1980. That’s a large enough sample size for me to pull the trigger on this road underdog for one of my NFL Week 7 picks.
Pick: Buffalo Bills +9.0

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com