Sunday Night NFL free pick

The Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will square off on Sunday night in a pivotal NFC East Division battle. The opening kickoff from Century Link Field in Philadelphia is slated for 8:20 PM ET and the game can be viewed on NBC. According to the current (11/10) NFL betting odds at BetOnline, Philadelphia is listed as a 7.5-point favorite with an accompanying total of 43.5.

Public Betting
Presently, Bookmaker has seen an overwhelming 89% of point-spread bets being made on the home favorite Eagles. Furthermore, 59% of totals bets are on this NFC East matchup to go over the total, and yet there’s been no movement from its opening number of 43.5.

Recent Series History
Since 2014, the road teams have gone a very profitable 6-2 SU&ATS when these division rivals have met. Additionally, the last 3 times Dallas has played in Philadelphia those games have stayed under the total.

Home/Away Splits
Dallas has gone 3-1 at home this season. However, the Cowboys are a dismal 0-4 on the road and they’ve scored just 13.2 points per game while doing so. Dallas has also seen all 4 of those road tilts stay under the total and there was only a combined 33.2 points scored per game.

Philadelphia has identical 2-2 records at home and on the road thus far in their 2018 NFL regular season campaign. The Eagles have seen all 4 of their home games stay under and there were a combined 37.0 points scored per contest.

Team Trends
Dallas has been involved in their fair show of low scoring road games during recent seasons. Specifically, they’ve witnessed 25 of their previous 31 away contests going under the total and that includes each its last 8.

The Cowboys are coming off last Monday night’s 28-14 home loss to Tennessee. Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS during their last 4 road games following a loss in their previous outing. Their average margin of victory in those 4 contests was 12.7 points per game.

Philadelphia is coming off their bye week. The last time the Eagles took the field was 2 weeks ago in London and they came away with a 24-18 win over Jacksonville. Since 2000, the Eagles are 17-3 straight up and 13-7 ATS following a bye week. Moreover, since 2006, Philadelphia is 6-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 4.0-points or more following a bye week and they won by 17.0 points per game.

Since the 2016 regular season began, Philadelphia is 11-4 under the total as a home favorite. Going one step further and during that precise time frame, they’ve gone 8-0 under as a home favorite when the total is 43.5 to 47.5.

NFL Betting Angles Point Toward Under the Total
It’s important to remind you when discussing the following NFL betting angles that Dallas was a 28-14 loser to Tennessee in their last time out, and Philadelphia defeated Jacksonville 28-14 during its previous game. We also must account for Dallas currently averaging 19.2 points scored per game. Conversely, Philadelphia has amassed a mediocre 22.2 points scored per contest.

Any NFL team (Dallas) coming off a loss by 14 points or more and is playing in a contest where both sides are averaging 18 to 23 points scored per game, and they’re playing after game 8 of the season, resulted in those games going 50-22 (69.4%) under the total since 2009. The average total in those 72 games was 42.7.

Any NFL team (Philadelphia) with a total of 42.5 to 49.0 that’s playing after Game 8 of the season and is involved in a contest in which both sides average 18 to 23 points scored per game, and they’re coming off a win by 6 points or fewer, resulted in those games going 58-27 (68.2%) under the total since 1983. The average total in those 85 games was 44.8.

Final Take and Pick
If you haven’t figured it out by now, then let me state the obvious. All signs point toward this game being a low scoring affair and that’s exactly what my NFL pick will be.
Pick: Under 43.5

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com