Division Duel Becomes a Key Game for Slow Starting Cardinals

Both the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers enter 1-3 and tied for the basement in the NFC West. While the 49ers were expected to finish last, the Cardinals have to get going if they plan on making the playoffs as many expected.

The 49ers enter on a 0-3 SU/ATS slide, but their defense is likely to be attacking more as the Cardinals will have a change at quarterback for this contest with Drew Stanton taking over for the injured Carson Palmer (concussion).

The sports books took a beating in last week's three prime time games on Thursday, Sunday and Monday night, as the favorites all won easily. However, all three winners were at home, and now favorite hits the road in a division duel.

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Arizona Cardinals -3.5
Atlanta Falcons +3.5
Total: 43

Kickoff 8:25 ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA.
TV: CBS, NFL

Offensive Lines

The problems for both teams start up front on offense, as the offensive lines have underperformed. Pro Football Focus has Arizona's offensive line ranked No. 18 into week 5, while the 49ers are near the bottom of the league at No. 28.

Mike Iupati has been the Cardinals best performer along the offensive line, solid in the rn game while allowing no hits or sacks across 192 pass-blocking snaps. D.J. Humphries has allowed four sacks and 12 total pressures, and has been a relative weak link when pass blocking at RT. Evan Mathis has missed time due to injury, but will be in the lineup vs. the 49ers.

San Francisco left tackle Joe Staley remains the one bright spot on a line that was once the best in the league back in 2012. Staley has allowed nine total pressures but no sacks as his overall performance has slipped a bit. The rest of the unit has seen poor play across the board, and coach Chip Kelly can't get his power run game going with these guys. Trenton Brown has been perhaps the worst performer, with awful run blocking explaining to large degree why the team has averaged just 2.9 yards per carry on runs off right tackle.

Key Injury

Carson Palmer has been ruled out (concussion), so the Cardinals will start Drew Stanton at quarterback. He was ineffective replacing Palmer in the fourth quarter last week in a 17-13 loss to the Rams, but will face a softer defense this week. Stanton threw two INT's and was just 4-of-11 for 37 yards.

Key Stats and ATS

Arizona beat San Francisco in both meetings last season, 47-7 and then 19-13 on this field with the Cardinals laying 7 points in both contests. The 49ers current 0-3 SU/ATS slide has seen them outscored 105-62 against Carolina and Seattle on the road, and Dallas at home last week after blowing a 14-0 lead. Those losses followed an opening week win over the Rams, 28-0. San Francisco QB Blaine Gabbert cannot stretch the field and makes too many poor passes. His 4/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio will not improve against a Cardinals pass defense that ranks top-7 in yards allowed and top-5 in yards per completion.

In addressing the running game and offensive line, it's noteworthy that the 49ers defense has allowed opponents to rush for a league-worst 141 YPG including 33 rushing attempts per game. Those are awful numbers and one's we cannot support even though we note that home underdogs have gone 13-6-1 ATS this season following last week's 2-3 home 'Dog log which included the 49ers loss to the Cowboys. Still, point of attack play and the running game advantage goes to the Cardinals, and RB David Johnson will be busy and a big game is expected against the 49ers.

The Cardinals losses have come against New England, Buffalo and the LA Rams, all who have much stronger run defenses that rank in the top half of the league. San Francisco is allowing 390 yards per game, and much worst following the opening week win over the Rams. Despite the Cardinals loss last week, note that Arizona did out-gain Los Angeles 420-288 and out-rushed them 118-41 with a 26-12 first down advantage. But turnovers are trouble, and Arizona lost five of them with a 5-1 turnover margin in a 17-13 defeat to the Rams. That makes ten turnovers for the Cardinals in their last two games.

Laying more than a field goal on the road in NFL games is a poor percentage play. Factor in the Cardinals 0-8 ATS run as division favorite following a division game and you have to be careful riding the Redbirds in this prime time affair. Yet the Cardinals have the perfect opponent at the right time to bounce back and get on track. The combination of point of attack play and coach Arian's strong road record (8-4 ATS as away favorite and 3-0 SU/ATS off back-to-back regular season losses), especially against lesser foes suggests Arizona can overcome the road situation if they hang on to the football and get adequate play from QB Stanton.

Check out the top online sportsbooks for all the latest football spreads, totals, moneylines and props, and get the best line and total available including quarters and halftime offerings.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay