The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will renew their heated AFC North rivalry on Sunday night. The opening kickoff from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh is slated for 8:20 PM ET. Currently, the NFL odds at all major offshore sportsbooks has Pittsburgh as a 3.0-point favorite and there’s a posted total of 51.0.
Recent Series History
Pittsburgh has won each of the last 3 games in this head to head series. Prior to that trio of contests, Baltimore had won 6 of their previous 7 games played against Pittsburgh. These teams have seen 4 of their last 5 played against one another in Pittsburgh go over the total.
2018 Season Results
Baltimore will enter this key AFC North divisional battle on Sunday night with a 2-1 record. They’ve gone 2-0 SU&ATS at home so far while posting convincing wins over Buffalo 47-3 and Denver 27-14. The Ravens came up short in their only road game falling to Cincinnati 34-23 and failing to cover while doing so.
The Steelers have begun the season by going an uninspiring 1-1-1. They were extremely fortunate to escape with a 21-21 tie at Cleveland. They followed that up with a 42-37 loss in their home opener against Kansas City. Pittsburgh staved off a Tampa Bay comeback last Monday night during their 30-27 road win. They’ve seen each of their first 3 games go over the total.
AFC North Divisional Games
Baltimore has seen 10 of their last 15 division games go under the total. The Ravens are a very profitable 8-1 ATS as an underdog in their last 9 versus AFC North teams and that includes 5-0 ATS following a win their previous game.
Pittsburgh is 13-1-1 straight up in their last 15 division games and it includes 10-0-1 during its previous 11. However, the Steelers are just 6-9 ATS during those prior 15 divisional contests. It’s also worth noting, Pittsburgh has seen each of its previous 5 divisional home games go over the total, and there were a combined 56.2 points scored per contest.
Handicapping the Total
Baltimore has gone over the total during its last 4 games as an underdog. Those 4 contests averaged a combined 46.8 points scored per contest. This is the highest total that a Ravens game has seen since 11/1/2015 and ironically that came against Pittsburgh. Furthermore, this is only a 4th time there’s been a total of 50.0 or more in Ravens franchise history.
Pittsburgh has gone over the total in 7 straight games as a home favorite. Those 7 contests averaged a massive 64.7 points scored per game. Barring a line move, Sunday will already be the 3rd time this season where’s there’s been total of 50.0 or greater in a Steelers game. Prior to this year, Pittsburgh witnessed a total of 50.0 or more just 10 times since 1980.
Final Pick and Analysis
These teams know each other very well. I look for this to be a hard-fought low scoring game in relation to the high total. One of my Sunday NFL picks will be indicative of that prediction.
Pick: Under 51.0
Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com