NFL Playoffs -- What the Jacksonville Jaguars Have to Do to Beat New England

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 21st, 2018 8:58:55 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Jacksonville Jaguars, who won at Pittsburgh last week, now have to visit the New England Patriots for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

The Jacksonville Jaguars obviously have a daunting task ahead of them on Sunday, when they take on the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. But they do have a lot of things going for them in this matchup. Despite the fact that they are from the Sunshine State, these guys play "cold-weather football," and we will see that on display starting at 3:05 PM ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. If you are a BetAnySports customer, you can place wagers even after the opening kickoff, as you take advantage of what is available through Live Betting Ultra.

To say the least, the transformation that has gone on in J-Ville has been noteworthy. And it has been done with a central philosophy, which is to play hard-nosed football. They get back to basics, which means that they are going to run the football on offense and play extremely aggressive defense. This new administration is led by Tom Coughlin, who coached the Jaguars to their first playoff berth and also scored two victories over the Patriots in Super Bowl action, while he was head coach of the New York Giants. The decision to draft Leoanrd Fournette in the first round meant that this team was making a renewed commitment to the run, and several pickups on defense have given them playmakers throughout the lineup. The Jaguars took advantage of some turnovers last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and scored a 45-42 victory. That was their second win of the season at Heinz Field, and illustrates another thing – their ability to go on the road and win, even against elite-level teams. In this one, we have had an interesting development, or two, or three. For the Jaguars' side, Fournette, who had been nursing a sore ankle, was rear-ended in a car accident this past week, and although he reportedly came out of that without a scratch, the ankle might still bother him. He gained 27 yards on twelve carries when he was re-inserted into the game against Pittsbugh. But he has played through injuries this year, and still topped the 1000-yard mark.

For the Patriots, Tom Brady sustained an injury to his hand during the week of practice, and had to get stitches to close a cut. The team is thankful that is not worse, but it really remains to be seen how much that's going to affect him when he throws. If he's not 100%, that only helps the Jacksonville cause.

In the NFL playoff odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Jaguars are the solid underdogs:

New England Patriots -8
Jacksonville Jaguars +8

Over 46.5 points -110
Under 46.5 points -110

Certainly if this is a "run-first" offense, and indeed, Jacksonville had almost an equal division between passing and running plays, Fournette has to get untracked and give this team some pretty favorable situations on second and third downs. What the Jaguars definitely don't want is for Blake Bortles to be dropping back in obvious passing situations, as New England has a tendency to get a lot of "cover sacks," and when blitzed, especially by two people, Bortles' per-attempt average goes way down. In fact, in those situations when he is facing six pass rushers, he has averaged 3.9 yards per pass. And if Doug Marrone's team can "shorten" the game in some way, that will work for them, because the Pats do like to get off to leads and make teams play "catch-up," as their Average Lead was second highest in the NFL this season.

Jacksonville has to capitalize on red zone situations, and this is a potential for an advantage there, as they are second-best in the league in touchdown percentage in the red zone. We have to be honest; even though Bortles has not thrown an interception in the two playoff games, we can't be all that impressed by his numbers, as he's had only 302 passing yards against the Bills and Steelers. BetAnySports patrons know that Brady is a tremendous passer, whether he's getting pressure or not. But if you can force the issue up the middle, you can at least prevent him from stepping up in the pocket. Jacksonville is not really a blitzing team (only 16% of the time), but an interesting statistic is that even when they rush only four guys, but have allowed just 4.8 yards per attempt. So they are effective. The Jaguars finished second in the league in sacks this season, so they really have no choice but to bring as much pressure as they can, and perhaps work some press coverage against the New England receivers. They have one of the best pairs of cornerbacks in the league to do it with. If they don't force Brady into early decisions and don't hit receivers as soon as they catch the ball, they don't have a chance.

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