NFL Betting -- Steelers Want Revenge - But Can Jags Rise to the Occasion?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Nov 18th, 2018 10:51:12 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Pittsburgh Steelers were swept by the Jacksonville Jaguars last season, and on Sunday they'll be looking for some payback.

Steelers/Jags Free NFL pick

It wasn't pleasant for the Pittsburgh Steelers last season as they were swept in two games by the Jacksonville Jaguars. So naturally they are looking for a little payback as they meet on Sunday. And it appears this comes at a good time for them, as they are on a roll right now and have a little extra rest, while the Jags have lost five straight games. This one takes place at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville on Sunday at 1 PM ET.

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Last year the Jags really put a whipping on the Steelers. In the regular season, they intercepted Ben Roethlisberger five times in a 30-9 victory, then went to Heinz Field again in the playoffs and won 45-42. Neither of those results was an accident. But this season things stopped clicking for J-Ville, after laying a beating on the New England Patriots. They've gone 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has won and covered five in a row, and they looked especially imposing a Thursday night 52-21 beating of the Carolina Panthers last time out.

Steelers Jags free pickJacksonville got some encouraging news last week when Leonard Fournette came back to the lineup after being out with a hamstring injury. His numbers were not especially impressive in the 29-26 loss to the Indianapolis Colts (just 53 yards on 24 carries), but he is nonetheless a necessary ingredient for the offense. More good news should come this weekend, as defensive back AJ Bouye returns from a calf injury.

In the NFL betting odds posted on this game by the people at BetAnySports, Pittsburgh is favored on the road:

Pittsburgh Steelers -5
Jacksonville Jaguars +5

Over 46.5 points -110
Under 46.5 points -110

Even in defeat, the Jaguars showed some good signs. They had 415 yards of offense and held the ball for 35 minutes. Blake Bortles was 26-of-38 for 340 yards. Of course, the flipside was that Andrew Luck completed 21 of his 29 passes against them, and Jacksonville surrendered seven yards per play, which, projected over a full season, would be the worst figure in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers free NFL pickIt might sound a little simplistic for us to say that Jacksonville is simply a tough matchup for Pittsburgh. But that might just be the case. With a healthy Bouye and Jalen Ramsey at the corners, it's more difficult for Big Ben to get the ball downfield. And even with their lack of success, Jacksonville still maintains a pretty good defensive unit. While they are ranked 22nd in yards allowed per drive, they are a much more respectable 12th in touchdowns allowed per drive, and while they are third-best in the NFL in the ratio of touchdowns to field goals they give up, while Pittsburgh is 26th (2.08).

And the Jacksonville defense has allowed an average quarterback rating of 89.9. It's clear that they have the capability to make things tougher than usual for the Steelers.

Of course, there's been a big difference in offensive production; for example, Roethlisberger and his unit has only needed 13.5 yards per point scored, while Jacksonville is one of the worst in the NFL at 20.2. And James Conner, the running back who has been filling the gap in the absence of Le'Veon Bell, appears to be cleared from concussion protocol and should play.

But here, the situation demands that Jacksonville be a little desperate. And that might make them dangerous. Certainly, they'll need Fournette, and probably Carlos Hyde as well, to take the pressure of Bortles. But they are now in a position to play the kind of offense they want to play, and therefore capable of a bigger effort than they've shown, while Pittsburgh could be a little overpriced. So we're leaning to the underdog Jags.

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