NFC Championship Betting -- Can Rams Reverse Earlier Result vs. Saints?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sun, Jan 20th, 2019 8:51:17 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Los Angeles Rams hope the return match is better for them as they meet the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome for the NFC title.

There were not surprises about the possible ramifications of the result back on November 4, as the New Orleans Saints played host to the Los Angeles Rams. These looked like the two teams that were the class of the NFC, and the winner was likely going to walk away with home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Well, that is exactly what happened, which is why the Rams will have to visit the Big Easy once again if they want to make it to the Super Bowl in Sean McVay's second season as head coach.

The NFC Championship Game gets underway at 3:05 PM ET at the Superdome, and if you are a BetAnySports customer, not only do you have reduced juice at your disposal, to afford you better odds, but you can also place wagers while the contest has started, using the software available through Live Betting Ultra.

Saints NFC Championship free pickNew Orleans prevailed in a 45-35 thriller the first time around, and there are a few things we can take from that; namely that the Rams, whether they have Aqib Talib in the lineup or not, are going to be hard-pressed dealing with WR Michael Thomas, who had 211 yards in receptions in that one. The vast majority of this (146 yards) came at the expense of Marcus Peters, an All-Pro corner who came to L.A. from Kansas City and has promptly become "toast." Peters is one of the lowest-rated corner backs in the league in the metrics that are compiled by Pro Football Focus, and we'll have to see how much time he gets facing off against Thomas again, and how much help he gets.

But Drew Brees, who eclipsed his record for accuracy once again with 74.4%, can go to people like Tre'Quan Smith or Ted Ginn Jr. if he is looking for some speed on the outside. The Rams are undoubtedly going to try to concoct something to try and keep Brees and Thomas off-balance, as we know that Wade Phillips is about as wily as any defensive coordinator around. Whether such a thing will work or not is an entirely different question.

NFC Championship betting angleIn the NFC Championship betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Saints are laying a field goal, and rather than get off that number, oddsmakers are attaching a price to it:

New Orleans Saints -3 (-115)
Los Angeles Rams +3 (-105)

Over 56.5 points -110
Under 56.5 points -110

It needs to be pointed out that last week the Rams really dominated things at the line of scrimmage against the Dallas Cowboys. It surprised many people that they not only had 273 yards on the ground (with both Todd Gurley AND CJ Anderson going over 100 yards), they also pretty much shut down Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL's leading rusher, holding him to 47 yards on 20 carries.

Can they do the same kind of thing against the Saints, and if not, WHY not?

Because of its prowess on offense, the Saints are not perceived to be the most hard-nosed bunch up front. Yet, when you look at the statistics, they are the league's best in yards per carry allowed (3.6) and a close second to Chicago in yards per game allowed (78.4). So it won't be a cakewalk for the Rams' offense to take command up front.

And while we respect that the Rams were able to stymie Elliott, it must be acknowledged that Phillips more or less sold out to stopping the run in that game, daring Dak Prescott to beat them with his arm. That is not going to be a possibility against Brees, a much more artful passer. And it is going to be tough to hide Peters, if that is what the Rams seek to do.

LA Rams vs New Orleans Saints pickWith more of an air threat, thanks to Brees and Thomas and the others, New Orleans should have more success moving on the ground against a Los Angeles defense that has yielded 4.9 yards per carry, including last week's effort. And with the Alvin Kamara-Mark Ingram combination, Brees has as much versatility at his disposal in the backfield as any team in the NFL.

Finally, a few words about Jared Goff. We absolutely have to respect that the Rams can hit hard on either side with wideouts like Robert Woods (1219 yards) and Brandin Cooks (1204 yards). But the guy he always looked to when he was in trouble was Cooper Kupp, a great possession receiver, and he has been out of action. Over these last six games, Goff has six touchdown passes and six interceptions, with an average of 6.6 yards an attempt, and those are pedestrian numbers.

And let's go one step further. Have you seen Goff's home-road splits? At the Coliseum he was brilliant, with 68% completions, 22 TD passes and three interceptions, with nine yards an attempt. On the road, he is just below 61% accurate, with ten touchdowns and nine INT's, with a little over 7.5 yards per pass.

Quarterback rating at home: 116.7. Quarterback rating on the road: 82.7.

We're going to lay the points here. And for parlay purposes, we may use the under with that, keeping in mind Goff's reduced road effectiveness, in addition to the fact that the Saints have allowed just an average of just 15.3 ppg in their last eight meaningful games.

Remember that you can get better odds by taking advantage of reduced juice at BetAnySports, where you also get to extend the excitement with Live betting Ultra and real-time wagering after the kickoff....... And there is variety in the way you can open up an account, using your Visa card, person-to-person transfers (like Western Union) or the virtual currency of Bitcoin, which is fast and easy with their automated system, and NEVER incurs a transaction fee!


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