Two or three generations of men can now relate to the wisdom and philosphies of George Costanza from hit sitcom Seinfeld. It was George or was it his alter ego "Art Vandalay" who in a memorable episode gave in to his pathetic loser life and then made every innate decision "the opposite way". Immediately George was a hit with babes, cruising with confidence and scored a job with the New York Yankees the following day.

Perhaps we could learn from George if the first round of the NCAA tournament was an example. It mirrored past experience NCAA tournament betting as a guide and proved again: Do the opposite!! If underdogs rule the early part of the day, the favorites are surely going to follow. If games are going Over in Totals wagering, it in uncanny how they seem to begin slipping Under the number later into the night.

First Round Under-dog Reaction By Bettors
Many wise bettors who sensed the even balance of many tournament teams were rewarded last Thursday on Day 1 of the tournament. As I pointed out in an earlier article, small senior-laden schools like a Butler or Georgia State covered or won outright on a day when underdogs ruled going 11-5 against the spread. It has long been a hot angle to play all underdogs in the first round and that strategy worked out well immediately.

But perhaps too well as bettors seemed to be a bit over-confident (or maybe "under confident") and started hammering the dogs last Friday on Day 2. Looking back, several prominent online sportsbooks including Diamond Sports and Bovada received a great deal of action on the underdogs. As custom at any Las Vegas sportsbook or any other major offshore sportsbook, there is a balanced reaction affecting the line. Therefore, favorites might have been laying a point or two less the following day reacting to Thursday's underdog fiesta. Friday's results: 9-7 or 10-6 favorites covered against the spread. It is amazing in the end how things and point spreads manage to even out.

On Wisconsin!!
This is my vote and team for this weekend's "do the opposite" theory. After first winning over 16th seed Coastal Carolina but not covering and then beating a good Oregon team but not covering, the Wisconsin Badgers could be ready to get serious. This is the only school besides Arizona that many give a chance to upset the mighty Kentucky Wildcats. If that is going to happen, they will have to prove it here with a big, big win over North Carolina.

The line is currently at a reasonable -6.5 at BetOnline and hovering around that figure at most top online sportsbooks. I think that narrow win over Coastal Carolina and a very tough game against Oregon bought the Badgers a few critical line points here that could surely help and possibly make the difference. Both teams are similar ATS this season with Wisconsin 20-16 and North Carolina 19-17.

While playing underdogs in the NCAA Tournament are currently an "in thing" I'm taking my cue from George Costanza and doing the opposite with one of the tourney favorites Wisconsin to win, cover and advance to the Elite Eight and then Final Four.