NCAA Basketball Odds -- Louisville Seeks Element of Surprise vs. Duke

  • In Charles Jay
  • Tue, Feb 12th, 2019 11:09:57 am
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Duke Blue Devils just completed a sweep of Virginia, and now they turn around to face the surprising Louisville Cardinals in Atlantic Coast Conference action.


The Duke Blue Devils are demonstrating that they can win games in different ways, and they have to be considered one of the major favorites to become the national champions this season. On Tuesday night they will take on the Louisville Cardinals, who have put together a rather surprising season, in the ACC showcase game on Tuesday night at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville.

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Duke (21-2 SU, 15-8 ATS) just completed a season sweep of Virginia, and you saw how good the Cavaliers are with their effort against North Carolina on Monday. What's impressive about the Blue Devils is that they defeated Virginia the first time using force and muscle on the inside, while the second time around they simply bombed Tony Bennett's team from the outside, hitting 13 of 21 three-point attempts. Of course, that is somewhat remarkable, since Duke went into the game as a 30% team from beyond the arc and Virginia was the second best team in the country against triples.

Louisville (17-7 SU, 13-10-1 ATS), of course, went through scandal last season, with coach Rick Pitino fired, and this was expected to be one of those "rebuilding" years. But Chris Mack, who came to coach the Cards after nine years at Xavier, felt he had a tournament-level team. It is likely that Louisville will be in the Big Dance, as it has built a record that includes victories over Michigan State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech.

Duke Louisville Free betting pickIn the NCAA basketball odds that have been posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, the Blue Devils are favored on the road:

Duke Blue Devils -8
Louisville Cardinals +8

Over 151 points -110
Under 151 points -110

Louisville will work hard to get to the line, and they excel in this area shooting 76.7%. The responsibility for Duke will be to be able to defend them without fouling. Jordan Nwora (17.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg) is the primary guy to stop, but the Cards have done a good job of spreading the possessions around. Cristen Cunningham, who is the seventh most "used" player in the rotation, led the team with 20 points in the Cards' last outing, an 80-75 overtime loss to Florida State.

But the Cards do have a lot to go up against from the matchup perspective. They sometimes run the risk of relying too much on three-pointers, and Duke is one of a handful of teams that has held opponents under 30% from beyond the arc, but what makes them dangerous on "D" is that they are also eighth best when it comes to defending shots from inside the arc. Duke also ranks first in the country in both Blocked Shot Percentage and Steal Percentage.

As you are no doubt aware, coach Mike Krzyzewski is playing the "one-and-done" game these days, and his superior freshman class of RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones may be the best ever. This is a tremendous offensive rebounding team, and the Blue Devils are ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. And you would think that they would leave almost no opening for Louisville.

Yet perhaps there is. We concede that the Blue Devils have beaten the likes of Virginia and Florida State on the road, but they have played just five true road games, and this will be a highly hostile atmosphere. Laying this sizable number could be an uncomfortable proposition, since Duke has not really shown a lot of consistency in two areas that would help them extend margins - three-point shooting (32%) and free throw shooting (67.7%). And as good as they are at going after it on the offensive boards, they have been subpar on the defensive glass (259th in the nation). So we'll go ahead and take the points with the home team that has found a way to become a contender, despite all expectations to the contrary.

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