Preview and pick for Game 5 of the NBA Finals

The Denver Nuggets have a chance to wrap up their series against the Miami Heat and capture their first world championship on Monday night. It may not be easy, as the Heat have played some of their best games of this postseason on the road. And BetOnline patrons know this team may be low on overall talent, but they have been long on heart.

But their inconsistency from three-point range has come back on them. Remember, they weren't one of the more accurate teams in the NBA from beyond the arc in the regular season (34.4%), so that's a difficult thing to rely on.

Miami is not a team with a lot of depth in the way of size. We're not sure if we can count Kevin Love in that; the fifteen-year veteran has offensive skills, obviously, and has always been a terrific passer. But he doesn't do very much when it comes to rim protection. There are others like Duncan Robinson who are probably a net negative on the defensive end.

And even if Tyler Herro returns from his broken hand, which we understand is a real possibility, he is generally a guy they have to hide on defense in the process of playing zone.

There is no escaping the fact that Denver has exploited matchup advantages over Miami. They have, after all, won 12 of the last 13 meetings. You would think that Bam Adebayo, a member of the NBA's All-Defensive team, would be a pretty good defensive matchup for two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, but that has not been the case, as Jokic has shot 55% from the field, and averaged 30.8 points - not to mention eight assists.

And nobody has successfully defended Aaron Gordon, who is shooting 67% in the series and had 27 points on Friday to pick up the slack for Jamal Murray, who had a subpar shooting night.

In the NBA Finals betting odds for Game 5, as they are posted at BetOnline, the Nuggets are decisive favorites:

Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-115)
Miami Heat        +8.5 (-105)

Over 208.5 Points -114
Under 208.5 Points -106

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Even though we mentioned that stuff about Denver at the outset, we have to acknowledge that the Nuggets are hard to beat at home. Including their loss in Game 2, Michael Malone's squad is 43-8 at Ball Arena, and they have been pretty good at covering numbers as well (32-19-1 ATS).

The story for the Heat leadiong up to this series included the ability on the part of their role players to come through in key moments. But this hasn't been anything to rely on. Gabe Vincent comes through with a monster game and then he disappears. The same can be said for Duncan Robinson. It was suggested that Caleb Martin might have been the MVP of the previous series against Boston. But he has shot just 35.5% against Denver. Max Strus is 5-for-31.

Jimmy Butler has shot the ball better the last couple of games. But after him and Adebayo, things get thin.

Playing against someone like Jokic, who can beat a team in so many ways, is a special challenge. Jokic has averaged over 30 points, but he doesn't have to score a lot, because there's some firepower left, even aside from Murray. And since he is maybe the best passing center in history, he can facilitate these plays for his teammates.

We've been winning with some totals lately, focusing on the unders, but this number has come down quite a bit from the previous games. So we're not sure if we see any value in that.

What we actually COULD see is a desperate team that comes out and shows a lot of energy. And toward that end, gets some kind of alternate game plan from Erik Spoelstra that throws the Nuggets off early.

So while we might be a bit hesitant to go with the total or either team in the full-game pointspread, we can see some light at the end of the tunnel with a first half play on the Heat.

Here's the way it looks right now:

Miami Heat        +5 (-113)
Denver Nuggets -5 (-107)

So just grab it and go!

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