NBA Playoffs Free Pick

The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers will play Game 3 of their Western Conference playoff series on Thursday night. The opening tip from the Staples Center in Los Angeles is slated for 10:35 PM ET.  The series is currently tied at 1-1. The NBA betting odds at Bookmaker is showing a current total of 235.0.

Series Recap

Golden State easily won the opening game of this series 121-104 while covering as a substantial 13.5-point home favorite.

The Clippers pulled off an absolute stunning upset in Game 2. Not only did they win 135-131 as a 14.0-point road underdog, but they overcame a 31-point deficit in doing so. It marked the largest comeback in NBA Playoff history during the shot clock era. That contest also sailed well over the total of 234.0.

Both Teams Red-Hot Shooting

Golden State made 51.2% of their field goal attempts during the first 2 games of this quarterfinal series. That includes going 25-58 (43.1%) from beyond the 3-point line. The Warriors also converted on a superb 85.1% of their combined 67 free throw attempts.

The Los Angeles Clippers shot a more than respectable 48% from the field and 41% from 3-point territory during those 2 contests at Oracle Arena. The Clippers also knocked down a very good 79.2% of their free throws.

It must be noted that Game 2 was an extremely physical affair. The teams amassed a collective 76 free throws and they made good on an exceptional 85.5% of those attempts.

Turnovers Lead to Easy Transition Points

Neither team has valued protecting the basketball thus far. Golden State turned the ball over an enormous 43 times in 2 games. The Clippers averaged 24.5 points per game off Warriors turnovers.
Conversely, the Clippers committed 36 turnovers of their own. Golden State was able to score 19.5 points per game off Clippers turnovers.

Notable Totals Team Trends

The Warriors have shot 48% or better in each of their previous 4 games. Golden State has gone over the total in 9 of 10 games this season after shooting 47% or better in each of its previous 3 contests. Those 10 outings produced a cumulative 242.3 points scored per game.

Thursday will be the Clippers 4th game in 10 days. They’ve gone over in all 7 at home this season when playing 4 games or fewer in a 10-day period. Those 7 contests manufactured 245.4 points scored per game.

Final Thoughts
Since the 1995 NBA Playoffs, this will be just an 8th time that there’s been a total of 230.0 or greater, and 7 of those contests occurred during the past 3 postseasons. Ironically enough, this series has provided 2 of those occasions, and Golden State has been involved in 5 of the first 7 contests.

Barring any line movement, the current total will signify the highest number in NBA Playoff betting history. It eclipses the previous high of 234.0 set in game 2 of this series.

According to a consensus of NBA betting odds, this total opened at 237.0 and has since dropped to its current status of 235.0. At the time of this writing, public betting trends are indicating that 66% of individual wagers and 82% of all money bet have gone on the under. I’m going with a contrarian approach when it comes to my selection.

Pick: Over 235.0

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com