March Madness Picks -- Kansas-Auburn: Rock, Chalk...... War Eagle?

  • In Charles Jay
  • Sat, Mar 23rd, 2019 5:52:12 pm
  • By Charles Jay - Exclusive to OSGA


The Kansas Jayhawks and Auburn Tigers clash for the right to go to the Sweet Sixteen as NCAA Tournament basketball continues.


The one thing you can say about the Auburn Tigers is that their game is predicated on creating a lot of pressure and a lot of turnovers. But what happens if they CAN'T do that? It's something the Kansas Jayhawks would like to explore on Saturday night, as they tackle Auburn in NCAA Tournament action at the Vivint Smart Home Arena in Salt Lake City. It is scheduled to begin at 9:40 PM ET, and if you are a BetAnySports customer, you can get reduced juice before the game starts, not to mention real-time wagering action coming your way through Live Betting Ultra.

Auburn had a scare in the opening round, and it was because they had a hard time defending inside the arc against New Mexico State, which made 18 of its 26 two-point shots. The Tigers forced 16 turnovers in their one-point victory, but what they did was not as what Kansas did in routing sharp-shooting Northeastern, which they held to just 16 of 57 from the field. There have been a number of injury problems for head coach Bill Self to worry about, but he has pretty consistently gotten strong efforts out of Dedric Lawson, the junior forward who had 25 points and eleven rebounds.

Really, much of the result here is going to depend on how well Auburn shoots from three-point range, and whether Kansas is able to get out there and run them off the circle. Because of they can, they can make things much more difficult.

In the March Madness betting odds posted on this game by the folks at BetAnySports, Auburn is the slight favorite:

Auburn Tigers -2.5
Kansas Jayhawks +2.5

Over 146.5 points -110
Under 146.5 points -110

You know, an awful lot of teams that attempt a high percentage of their shots from three-point range are not very accurate. But Auburn is the exception, as they are 38.1%, which lands them in the nation's top 25. And like a lot of teams, both college and pro, who are devotees of analytics, they avoid shooting from mid-range, which is a good thing, because only a handful of schools are worse when they get just inside the arc. But don't take that to mean they can't operate on the inside; indeed they can, with Chuma Okeke and Anfernee McLemore. But make no mistake about it; Jared Harper and Bryce Brown are the go-to guys, and they are not about to let Kansas run them off the three-point line.

And remember another thing - you have the team that forces turnovers at the highest rate in the country (Auburn, on 25.3% of all possessions) against a team that is starting four freshmen, not necessarily because they were all "one and done" types, but out of necessity, due to player attrition. One of those kids who fell by the wayside is Udoka Azubiuke, a premier shot-blocker who could have kept Auburn "honest" on the inside. But he's injured, and we may see the Tigers create some possessions out of traps and misses as well (they are 55th in offensive rebounding rate, which isn't bad at all).

Auburn hasn't lost in a while, with nine straight wins, including a pair of victories over Tennessee and an SEC title, so they are in form, while this Kansas edition was decidedly down from previous ones and broke the school's string of 14 consecutive seasons in which they won at least a share of the Big 12 title. We'll lay the small number.

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(The preceding information has been furnished for news matter only)


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