Add first and second round NCAA tournament upsets to death and taxes

The ides of March 2019 are a long, long way away but can we all remember this soothsayer advice from this season. We are not going to select 32 outright winners in the first round of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. We are not even going to get remotely close.

As for the normal 60% success benchmark for against the spread wagering involving the point spread: is anything more difficult than foolishly betting several games in the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament? Why we punish ourselves year after year attempting this is bizarre. With every "expert" warning us 2018 would be especially unpredictable makes it even worse.

Looking back, I was joking about tabbing Lipscomb Bison's +19.5 vs. North Carolina as a major play. I had to use Google to find out where the university was located. But more important, they covered. I didn't even know University Maryland Baltimore County was a real school. Now they are part of sports history after their shocking win over Virginia. This fuzzy thinking doesn't happen in the NFL Playoffs or picking the winner of the Preakness or even handicapping the Camping World Bowl on a December weeknight.

NCAA Tournament Big Bust Theory

Virginia, North Carolina and Xavier's early exits should stick in our minds as examples of "sure thing, guarantee and 50,000-star lock" stupidity. In tribute to last week's sad passing of Stephen Hawking, he could have written The NCAA Tournament Big Bust Theory to accompany The Big Bang Theory. I'm not sure of the mathematical equation, simply stating that there are absolutely no sure or guaranteed teams to wager on to win in the NCAA tournament. And the order of the universe dictates at least one certain favorite is destined to explode early. Whether you want to debate skill vs. risk probability in gambling is fine, however the key word is RISK.

Speaking of risk, two happy wagering stories have circulating in Las Vegas from last weekend's upset bonanza.

One dreamer plunked down $800 at +2000 odds at The Venetian in Vegas to collect $16,000 on the Golden Terriers of UMBC. Being that a #16 seed has never previously defeated a #1 seed in the history of NCAA college basketball tournaments, does this make logical sense? The fact that this bettor accepted only 20-1 odds makes it even more senseless. All preferred offshore sportsbooks were offering at least 25-1 or more odds on UMCB to pull off their historic victory. Offering these poor odds, perhaps this is another hidden reason why Venetian-owner Sheldon Adelson is firmly against legalizing U.S. online wagering.

At William Hill one bettor printed his winning $40 ticket online for a two-team win parlay on Marshall and UMCB. That paid off to the tune of $7,240!! Wasn't 20-1 good enough for a UMCB win that they needed a parlay with 14-seeded Marshall to cash. That's like getting Kim Kardashian saying yes to me after meeting outside the Westgate sportsbook buffet. But then insisting sister Kylie also joins us upstairs in the room. Talk about greedy. But then again, we've all done dumber things with $40.

The all-time "no sure thing" wager was reported involving the tournament favorites. One extremely overconfident bettor wagered $20,000 to win $870 on high-seeded Purdue, North Carolina and Virginia. That is akin to "bridge jumping" in horse racing. A term where a heavily-backed horse (say 1-5) must only finish at least third to collect a minimum $2.10 playoff for every $2.00 invested.

Translated, we falsely believe there is no logical way of losing and willing to accept the most minor payoff for a "guaranteed" win. If your bracket was busted last week when Virginia went down, imagine the feeling risking $20K to win only $830. At least they couldn't have attributed it to bad luck. Duh.

"Sure Thing" Season Is Over

Scanning the board for this week's Sweet Sixteen it's apparent the upsets and longshot parade from last week has had a dramatic effect on the wagering board.

Bovada, BetOnline, Diamond Sports and most other preferred sportsbooks have installed Duke as the largest current favorite. Duke is -11.5 over Syracuse and -800 on the money line at Bovada. I wonder if the echoes from Lipscomb, Bucknell, Loyola Chicago or even the Syracuse Orangemen themselves are playing a part in knocking down that line a bit against the mighty Blue Devils. It would seem that no one would be afraid anymore of taking a shot on the money line after what we've seen. No other Sweet 16 game has a spread greater than -6 nor a favorite money line higher than -260.

I know it's all part of the fun of March Madness however certainly can't be good for the sportsbooks or instill confidence this week in the minds of dedicated college basketball bettors. The true madness is believing in selecting perfect brackets, #1 and #2 seeds as locks, etc. Must be a trend. I didn't get even one number in the big Powerball jackpot either.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.