Identifying Declining Pitchers

The MLB All-Star game is next week at Petco Park in San Diego, and wouldn't all pitchers like to pitch at Petco. Certainly it would help the cause of those we suggest fading below, but not certain even the friendly confines of Petco would help these poor pitchers.

I'll chip in some insight and analysis that may help you understand why we play against the pitchers below more often, and also identify additional pitchers to fade along with run line opportunities when these and other pitchers take the mound. Betting baseball and producing more winners to build your bankroll comes down to identifying value and letting the chips fall where they may when supporting or playing against certain pitchers. Often you can enhance your chance for a winning wager by focusing on the starting pitchers and making a 5-inning play.

As such, there are plenty of aging pitchers who have carved out a solid career, but are often (over)priced like their big fat contracts, rather than the reality of their current skill sets.

I mentioned one such pitcher in my identifying MLB betting value article last month when we played against the Rangers' Colby Lewis, who was 6-0 at the time before losing to the last place Reds 8-2 as a huge favorite. We noted pitching metrics and under the surface stats that suggested the 37-year old Lewis would regress, as his 11-year career has produced 77 wins and below average ERA, WHIP and BAA. Unfortunately, we were unable to fade Lewis further as he went on the disabled list before his next start and is now out until at least the end of August with a strained lat muscle. We'll revisit and rework our plans to play against Lewis when he and his $6 million per year salary returns. But know that the Rangers are rolling the first half with the best record in the AL at 53-33. They had a season win total of 84.5, so you're going to pay a price betting on Texas and over-valued pitchers like Lewis.

Some other starting pitchers to fade in more situations and play against following the All-Star break should include the Angels Jered Weaver and his new teammate Tim Lincecum, the overpaid Orioles right-hander Yovani Gallardo and the Diamondbacks Shelby Miller. Along with the Royals Chris Young, White Sox James Shields and Blue Jays R.A. Dickey, you have a 7-pack of veteran pitchers who you can play against in the second half of the season.

There are many factors to understand and stats to study when evaluating pitchers, and Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a statistic that estimates a pitchers run prevention independent of the performance of their defense. FIP is an attempt to measure and isolate the performance of the pitcher by taking out the role of the defense and luck on balls in play; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. FIP is a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time. FIP is not league or park adjusted meaning that pitchers in good pitcher's parks will have consistently lower FIPs. That should be the case for the pitchers mentioned above pitching in more favorable ball parks, yet Weaver (5.69), Lincecum (5.31), Gallardo (5.26), Miller (5.67), Shields (5.21), Dickey (5.24) and Young (8.65) all have poor or even awful FIP's. An above average FIP is approximately 3.50 to 3.70, and elite pitchers like Kershaw, Syndergaard, Arrieta, Strasburg, Kluber and Jose Fernandez all have FIP's less than 3.00. Close behind and still strong are Bumgarner, Cueto, Pomeranz, Quintana, Salazar, Matz, Tanaka, deGrom and Wacha.

Now add in some below average and poor WHIPs for Weaver (1.48), Lincecum (2.06), (Gallardo (1.64), Miller (1.76), Shields (1.64), Dickey (1.30) and Young (1.68), and you can see just some of the underlying stats that present problems. Yet some of these guys still get respect in the betting market, and some of that is due to their past success or reputation, the teams place in the standings, offensive lineup or bullpen that often bails them out.

We cashed a first 5-inning and game 'over' the total wager going against Miller July 6 as he was crushed again for 6 runs, 7 hits and a home run in 5-innings and trailed 6-4 after 5 innings as a favorite. The Diamondbacks would lose to the Padres 13-6, and Miller has now had 10 disaster starts in his last 11 outings while averaging less than 5 innings per start. It doesn't help him to be pitching at Chase Field, one of the league's top hitters ballparks. But Miller is one of the worst pitchers in MLB against left-handed batters and time is ticking against him if he doesn't turn it around soon. Miller may stay in the rotation since the Snakes traded for him and the D'backs pay him over $4 million/year. But Miller has taken the loss in 23 of 26 decisions in the past year, and despite an ERA now above 7.0, he's only been a 'Dog greater than +140 twice in his last 10 starts and he's gone 2-8. The slide should continue if he starts, but the price will be more prohibitive. Consider the run line against him and note Arizona has lost his last seven home starts all by two or more runs.

The 30-year-old Gallardo has made just eight starts for the Orioles since they signed and overpaid him nearly $9 million per year. He's 3-1 for the Birds, which only confirms that a pitchers won/loss record is one of the most over-rated stats in the game. Gallardo has an ERA of 6.10 and xERA greater than 4.5, and this is not a pitcher that can suddenly turn it around. He's averaging less than 5 innings per start, but that's just a small part of his problem. He's benefitted by the Orioles big bats, as they lead the majors in home runs and are third in runs scored. Gallardo is a prime pitcher to fade in the first five innings, and when this guy is favored it's time to get in the batter's box and tear him apart as a big barking 'Dog.

Baltimore is 49-35 and leading the AL East. Tough to see that continuing with pitchers like Gallardo and Jimenez taking the ball every fifth day. The Birds bullpen has bailed them out as one of the best in the big leagues, but with Gallardo tossing batting practice, missing few bats and getting hit hard, I assure you he'll lose many more games this season. His low ground ball rate and high line drive rate tells the story, and his luck has run out. Gallardo has been favored in over half his starts, and we'll have plenty of opportunities to make money betting against him in the second half. Let's hope he stays healthy so we can whack him and his mid-80's fastball.

Tim Lincecum has had a very good career, but the Giants gave up on the Cy Young award winner and the lean Lincecum now pitches for the LA Angles. The Halos are so desperate for starting pitching that they signed this guy, probably to sell more tickets, as the Angels are underachieving in last place in the AL West at 35-50 and burying their betting backers with over 15-units lost. Lincecum's fastball is now in the 86-88 MPH range, and the 32-year-old has been hit hard, allowing 29 hits over four starts and 18 innings with a .367 batting average against, since starting for the Angles beginning June 18. Linecum's reputation is still strong, yet his stats are not and he's not posted a sub-4 ERA since 2011. Lincecum may go out on his terms, but we'll take advantage against a pitcher who's had three surgeries and seen a steady decline in velocity, K-rate control and other underlying stats.

We'll analyze one other pitcher in more detail, but know that Young, Shields and Dickey are all well past their prime with only the 42-year-old, over-paid $12 million per year knuckle baller Dickey giving his team a modest chance when he takes the mound. Shields is now 35 years old and making a cool $21 million this year. His skills have been in steady decline since the back half of 2014. He couldn't get batters out at Petco Park, so the Padres cut bait and now he's pitching for the White Sox and dialing up long distance bombs at U.S. Cellular Field. What White Sox executive should get fired for picking up $27 million of his remaining contract? Shields saved his ass and the executives the last two starts, but that will only help us when we fade him in the second half at reasonable prices. The 37-year-old Young has won two of his 13 starts for the defending World Series champs, and the Royals are one of the league's top hitting teams. Still, Young isn't winning and he shouldn't be with an ERA near 7.0 and able to pitch past the fifth inning just once in his last 10 starts.

That takes us back to Jered Weaver, who is one of the baseballs softest tossers with a low-80's fastball. He's had a good career, but Weaver is holding on at age 35 while robbing the Angels bank for $20 million this season. The value playing against Weaver is mostly gone, and he's managed to win 7 games this season while being an underdog in 12 of his 17 starts. His declining skill sets translate to an ERA of 5.27, BAA near .300 and he's an extreme fly ball pitcher that has been whacked for 21 home runs in 100 innings. That folks is batting practice in the majors, and while he'll be a 'Dog and a bigger one at times in the second half of the season, we'll still line up against Weaver more often than not and take back a tag by playing the run line against him. This will be the last chance and season to play against Jered Weaver.

The beauty of betting baseball is there are many games each day. And plenty of value to be found. Thus, identify pitchers that are unproductive, regressing or still priced poorly. Play against them multiple ways, and especially when they are favored. You can play against the pitchers I mentioned above and others with success as well on the 5-inning line, the run line and also when they are on the road at a hitter's ballpark. That's when you'll often see an explosion, and it will be those poor pitchers getting pounded and making a disaster start.

Do your research and apply information with insight and you'll identify more value plays and pitchers to fade, and turn those play-against pitchers into bigger profits.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay