The top 2 teams in the NL Central standings will begin a 3-game series on Monday night when the Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs. The opening pitch from Miller Park in Milwaukee is slated for 8:10 PM ET. The current MLB betting odds at Bookmaker specifies that Chicago is a money line road favorite of -118.

The Cubs have ruled their head to head series against Milwaukee in 2018 by winning 7 of their 8 games against their division rivals. Despite their dominance, Chicago (37-25) still trails first place Milwaukee (39-26) by 1.5 games in the NL Central standings.  Furthermore, 7 of those 8 games went under the total. As a matter of fact, since 2016, these teams have gone 17-6 under the total during their meetings at Milwaukee.

Probable Starting Pitchers

The Cubs are slated to go with Jose Quintana as their starting pitcher in this series opener. Quintana has seen each of his 6 career starts against Milwaukee go under the total, and him compiling a microscopic 0.63 ERA was certainly vital to those low scoring affairs. Quintana has made 4 starts against fellow NL Central teams this season and didn’t allow an earned run in 24.0 innings pitched. Moreover, Quintana has failed to allow an earned run in 17.0 innings of work throughout his last 3 road starts. The Cubs southpaw is 12-1 under the total in 13 road starts since 2017 when there’s a total of 7.0 to 8.5.

Milwaukee plans on countering with Junior Guerra. The Brewers right-handed hurler has displayed very good form over his last 3 starts by collecting an inspiring 2.50 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Guerra has made 4 career starts against the Cubs and all those appearances transpired since 2016. Guerra had a sparkling 1.61 ERA during those 4 starts. Guerra is 4-1 under the total during 5 starts in 2018 when facing NL Central teams and gathered an impressive 2.25 ERA while doing so.

MLB Betting Angle and Pick

The Cubs Jose Quintana has a 1.37 WHIP in 2018 throughout his 12 starts. The Cubs have averaged just 2.9 runs scored per game during its last 7 outings. Having said that, it then comes as no surprise that 6 of those 7 games went under the total. Additionally, all the major offshore sportsbooks are displaying a total of 8.5 for this NL Central battle. A combination of the just mentioned data sets up an extremely gainful MLB betting algorithm which is illustrated below.

Any National League road team (Cubs) with a total of 8.0 to 8.5 who’s starting pitcher (Quintana) possesses a season WHIP of 1.35 to 1.45, and they’re playing in June, resulted in those games going 31-8 (79.5%) under the total since 2014.

With all things being considered, this game has all the signs of a low scoring one. One of my Monday 6/11 MLB picks will be indicative of such.

Pick: Under 8.5

Ross Benjamin is a top sports analyst and one of the sports industry's most respected handicappers. Follow him on Twitter: @RossBenjamin1 or visit his website at RBWins.com