Free Pick and Betting Advice for the 143rd Kentucky Derby

The first Saturday in May is finally now upon us. That can only mean one thing, right. The greatest two minutes in sports and the annual Run for the Roses. And if you don't know what I'm alluding to thus far, perhaps as our President might suggest, please head for the other side of the wall to register non-American. Yes, it's Kentucky Derby time.

So sad to kill the joy there with no American Pharoahs, Nyquists or great horses of the past to get excited about this upcoming Saturday at approximately 6:35PM EST. This is the most thrilling moment I live for every year, however this year's Derby field is likely the weakest I've handicapped in many, many years. Here's hoping by sometime in November after the Breeders' Cup I am proven very wrong. The big question is why am I feeling this way?

Every signal thus far has given credence to no one horse distinguishing himself as a Tripe Crown threat, a definite confident play or one that could beat another consistently two races in a row on a different track on a different day. That adds up to an "anything could happen" atmosphere reminiscent of when Mine That Bird shocked the world as an unheard of 50-1 long-shot on a sloppy track in the 2009 Derby. The Bird wasn't heard of since and by the way, the current forecast is for 70% showers at Churchill Downs this Saturday, it's raining now on Friday.

Not meaning to be negative or tearing up tickets before the gate opens, but keep many things in mind before becoming overconfident here. Perhaps it's a good thing as favorites have won four years in a row, leading to an unusual streak and casual fans dreaming of a Triple Crown poster boy on Sports Illustrated every year. It won't happen this time.

The best news is bettors receiving an almost certain juicy payoff if right selecting a straight bet winner. Or even better diving into the multitude of exotic bets offered up by the preferred list of offshore sportsbooks. The Kentucky Derby has the unique distinction of the largest field of the year at 20 horses entered. Add in a likely favorite of no less than 4-1 (Classic Empire and/or Always Dreaming). The top sportsbooks including Bovada, BetOnline and Diamond Sports have all the popular exotics available including exactas and trifectas. It would be difficult to imagine even the smallest exacta combination for a $2.00 wager being less than a $40.00 return. Most would be in triple figures. **Be sure to check the rules for maximum payoffs as trifectas could potentially reach huge official payoffs at Churchill Downs and be limited at individual offshore sites.

Earning and Learning

All twenty starters earned their way into the Kentucky Derby field based on a point calculation system. This formula was instituted about ten years ago to prevent owners from "buying their way" into the race, establishing a fair way to create competitive balance. Also to create greater horse racing fan interest to have people chart their favorites similar to NCAA football and basketball rankings. The top finishers from the biggest Kentucky Derby prep races including the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass at Keeneland, Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, etc. get their chance to enter.

Therefore, what we have are seemingly the best group of three year old starters that have run in the best prep races for the Derby to date. Are these the best horses in the barn? Maybe not, but they're the girls (or in this case boys) we're bringing to the big dance. For example, favorites Classic Empire and Always Dreaming are not going to scare anybody away, even if indeed they do end up in the winner's circle. It is customary for the field to dwindle down for the Preakness, the second Jewel of Triple Crown, run on a short layoff only two weeks away. This year will be a major exception, no matter who captures the roses.

Subsequently, look for next choices Gunnevera, Irish War Cry, Girvin and McCracken to get solid support. In fact, it is possible to make a legit case for as many as 14 of the 20 starters for this year's Derby edition. From a bettor's perspective that makes a glass half empty or glass half full case. Personally, I'd rather eliminate 14 horses than have to keep them as potential threats. It also creates a huge investment for exotic players (exactas, trifectas, superfectas, daily doubles, etc.) for those unable to leave any possibilities off their tickets. Great news for the people at the windows. Or in our case, the folks at top online sportsbooks, who will be receiving extra Derby action this year to cover back-up insurance from players.

They're at the Post!!

So let's choose to view "the glass half occupied". Rather than circle a potential superstar horse, concentrate on who gets to the wire first at the 143rd Kentucky Derby. The few certain throw-outs, a couple of overrated contenders, a Best Bet or two and one long shot to keep an eye on. Just because there will not be close to the next American Pharoah, Secretariat, Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid to root for, does not mean it's still not the greatest two minutes in sports. Well, maybe 2:04.3 this year.

The Overrated Contenders

Classic Empire
This is your likely trouble horse with a jockey in Julian Leparoux that is usually conservative and not often prone to taking risks. A bad omen for a twenty horse field and for a horse than already had proven to getting into trouble by always going wide and once throwing rider Jose Ortiz. Not that he isn't talented with big wins in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and most recently Arkansas Derby. As the likely post time favorite, I don't envision the favorite winning the race five straight years, especially a lukewarm favorite that will have to negotiate past a herd of traffic in the stretch.

Thunder Snow
More or less, the owners or primary owner of Godolphin, His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum did buy his way into the race by winning their local derby, the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai. Because they have a rich, substantial international investment into the sport, they do count the points toward entry into the Derby, although very few of the traditional Kentucky Derby entrants compete in the race. I don't truly have anything against the horse, who is piloted by a very good jockey in Christophe Soumillon. He's just breaking from the unfavorable #2 post and has not faced nearly this type of competition. One of these year's the Sheik will indeed have a top classic contender to fear.

The Underrated Contenders

McCracken
Don't know what happened to this guy during his last race in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. But as an excuse, many horses have simply shown a disliking for that track surface. Coming into the race he was an undefeated 4 for 4 favorite at 8-5. He threw in a clunker, defeated by 30-1 maiden. Irap, who is in the field on Saturday. That's know as a "bounce". McCracken can bounce back and because of that defeat will likely earn a great price for those who still have confidence. Can't throw him out. Ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., a solid rider who is not a superstar but capable of getting on the board if not winning it all.

Practical Joke
Another horse who was upset in that strange Arkansas Derby by Irap. He has one of the hottest U.S. jockey's in Joel Rosario riding, looking for his second Derby winner And the nation's leading trainer Chad Brown, who has seeming won every big race but this one. Practical Joke has been right there in all six races, winning his first three and a deceptively good second in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. The negative here is breaking from post #19. Rosario will have to get him settled in contention quickly. If he clears, he has the class and talent to win.

Kentucky Derby Best Bet: 

GORMLEY
A nice horse that isn't great but most important peaking at the right time. His solid win in his last race in the Santa Anita Derby three weeks ago set him up perfectly for this longer 1 ¼ mile distance. Victor Espinoza has the confidence having been on-board American Pharoah. Also a great trainer in John Shirreffs, who has won the Derby before with Giacomo in 2005 for this owner. Like Practical Joke, he will break from the auxiliary gate in post #18. That won't hurt Gormley due to his come from behind style. Expect somewhere between 12-1 with reasonable support from West coast players. A wet track is to his favor with likely a great deal of rain this weekend at Churchill Downs.

Longshot Pick:

BATTLE OF MIDWAY
Right behind Gormley in that Santa Anita Derby. Threat here is could show speed in a race that does not have a tremendous amount of early speed and not stop. Also 1 for 1 on an off-track. Battle of Midway has run four good races and will go off as a great value, likely 25-1 or better. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, one of the nation's best, who has saddled many Derby favorites and come up short. This could be his year. He will be ridden by Flavien Prat, a coming star in thoroughbred racing, who only lacks some Triple Crown experience. Three sharp workouts for the race add to his appeal. Again, one of the many that cannot be thrown out in the most balanced, competitive field in many years.

Glenn Greene covers the games from a betting angle every week exclusively at OSGA.com. For weekly betting insights, inlcuding previews and picks from Glenn, click here.