Player Profiles and Match-ups

This is one of the toughest golf events of the year to handicap. But we'll provide some insight and analysis of the players and keys to success. A number of factors and situations set up a difficult week. The course at Royal Troon in Scotland is not played regularly by the playing pros, the changing weather conditions and wind along the most competitive field for a Major Championship makes it a tough task. You can hit a great shot in links golf and have a drive, approach or chip shot land within a few feet of your target and landing area, only to have a quirky bounce send it into the gorse or bunkers, which are tighter into the greens at Royal Troon. The 'luck' factor is more prominent in this event, and players with a stronger mental makeup and patience persevere. That's why experience is important, and players that understand links golf and have control of their iron game, ball flight and emotions have more success.

We previewed the Open and course at Royal Troon previously, and add more insight, analysis and player profiles today. Rain is expected on Friday with a better than 80 percent precipitation, and the windier days will come on the weekend with near 60 degree temperatures throughout the championship. Of course, forecasting the weather in Scotland with its frequent changing conditions is difficult. I've experienced it firsthand. Just bring an umbrella, change of golf gear, competitive mental state and strong iron game.

Here are some thoughts and profiles on contenders to consider at the 145th Open Championship at Royal Troon. Use this as a guide in match-up wagering as well, however, it's still often best to focus on who to bet against rather than just betting on certain players when wagering on match-ups. That worked well for us in the U.S. Open, when we provided 5 of 6 match-up winners in our U.S. Open handicapping preview with a strong play against JB Holmes (missed cut), along with Bubba Watson, who we will fade again. We also had Dustin Johnson rated higher than Jordan Spieth in our match-up winner, and Johnson won the U.S. Open while Spieth never contended.

Royal Troon is a fairly straight forward links course. The greens are flatter and smaller, and not too difficult. The key is to stay out of the bunkers, and the gorse. And to score well on the front nine, as the opening six holes play straight out downwind along the seaside with shorter par 4's. The middle six holes go in various directions which makes the wind more tricky, and holes No. 10, 11 and 12 are so tight with gorse everywhere. The closing six holes can be difficult into the prevailing wind. Players that can handle the more predominant left-to-right wind, and especially on the back nine will have an advantage. Digging deeper, we know McIllroy has been practicing and preparing for that and we'll include him in our match-ups this week as a top contender.

While a number of long shots have won the Open Championship, and some of them greater than 100-1, we expect one of the leading contenders to come out on top and take home the Claret Jug at Royal Troon.

Rory McIllroy – His swing was off at the U.S. Open, but his victory at the Irish Open highlights a trio of top-5 finishes in his past four starts worldwide. He also won the Open Championship in 2014 at Royal Liverpool while becoming the World No. 1, but was unable to defend his title missing last year's Open with an injury. McIllroy is a 4-time major champion and should probably be the betting favorite, but at 11-1 to win the Claret Jug, he's just behind Day, Spieth and Johnson. He had his best putting week a few weeks ago at the Memorial, then followed it up with another outstanding week on the greens at the in the French Open. Surprising to many, he's never played Royal Troon, but says he's not at a disadvantage noting many players will play it for the first time. McIllroy is a links expert from Northern Ireland, and we expect him to contend this week as a major threat.

Sergio Garcia – No major wins for the 36-year old Spaniard, but he does have a pair of runner-ups at the Open. That includes in 2007 when he missed a 10-foot putt for the win on No. 18 and cost me a 4-digit payday on his way to a 4-hole playoff loss. . His overall record and resume at the Open is outstanding and he's been in contention a number of times with nine top-10 finishes. He missed the cut at Royal Troon in 2004, but this is the major Garcia is most likely to win with his creativity, iron play, experience and ability to navigate and execute shots in the wind. Must consider.

Lee Westwood – He's been in contention in numerous majors, and has a record nine top-3 finishes. But Westwood has yet to win a major at age 43. Another strong iron player who is so accurate and had the lead at the U.S. Open, and then was just a few strokes back during Sunday' final round before imploding. He also led by 2-shots after 54 holes at Muirfield in 2013 before finishing third. He's "been playing well, solidly" with good current form including five top-15 finishes in his last six worldwide events. Westwood posted the lowest round of 67 with Davis Love in the 2004 Open at Royal Troon, and he's an undervalued longshot this year.

Jason Day – The World No. 1 has three wins and five other top-10s in 2016. His high ball flight is a concern should the wind conditions toughen as expected. He's made the cut all five times he's played in the Open, but last year was his first top-25 when missed a birdie putt on the 72nd hole to get into the playoff and finished T-4. See strokes gained stat below on his ability to play in the wind. Day may be the play for many, but I'm not betting on him.

Jordan Spieth – His best Open finish also came last year when he finished alongside Day, T-4. He made the cut in his other two appearances while finishing outside the top-40, but Spieth arrived overseas early this year for the first time and should play well. He can play well in the wind, has the iron game and best mid-range putting to excel. His positive comments following the Bridgestone event at Firestone suggest he's ready for a good week. "I was able to hit both ball flights with my irons, trust them, and pull them off, which are really good shots that I can take forward," he said. An American most capable of extending streak of six-straight Open winners at Royal Troon.

Dustin Johnson – If confidence is at least 75 percent of playing well at the professional level, then Johnson is the leader heading into the Open. He's won his last two events at the WGC at Firestone and U.S. Open at Oakmont. He has a pair of top-10's in seven Open appearances including T-2 in 2011. His power game will set up shorter shots into the green, but he will need to control his ball and flight in the windy conditions to add another major to his resume. Not betting on it.

Adam Scott – The Aussie and major champion is slightly overlooked entering the Open with the Big-4 taking the headlines. But Scott is playing better at present than his recent results would suggest, with his putter his biggest problem. His Open record is excellent with 4-straight top-10's the last four years. He had one hand on the Claret Jug with a 4-shot lead and four holes to play in 2012 before collapsing and handing it to Ernie Els.

Branden Grace – The South African is an emerging player who finished 5th in U.S. Open and 10th at Bridgestone in two recent events. That makes it four top-10's in his last five starts so current form is excellent. His ball flight carries low-trajectory, and he loves links golf. He moved into the Top-10 in World Rankings, and was one-stroke behind the leader through two rounds after shooting a 67 Friday in the Scottish Open. He would finish top-10 to continue his solid play. A win at Harbor Town earlier this year also showed his ability to shape the ball and be creative, which is required in the Open. He's made the cut in all five Open appearances with a best T-20 last year. Grace has developed into a big event player and is likely to move up further this year as a worthy contender.

Zach Johnson – Last year's Open winner at St. Andrew's gets very little respect in the betting market. He's listed at least 50-1 to win this year's Open despite being a 2-time major champion, and finishing top-10 in three of the last four Open's after last year's win. He's also in great form with top-10's at the WGC at Firestone and U.S. Open. Johnson hits it short but very straight, which should help him avoid the trouble spots of bunkers and gorse.

Other contenders to consider: Henrik Stenson – three top-3 finishes in the Open since 2008 and a winner in Germany three weeks ago. Martin Kaymer – 2-time major champion with great temperament, patience and iron game. He has three top-12 finishes in the Open, and his current form is excellent with four top-6 finishes since April including the recent French Open, and a T-13 last week in Scottish Open.

Huge Longshots to consider and locate for value in match-ups, fantasy and auctions.

Andy Sullivan – The Englishman is a 3-time European Tour winner and links expert who finished T-30 in his first Open appearance last year at St. Andrew's. His form is excellent with a T-6 last week in the windy Scottish Open, and T-5 in the French Open.

Chris Wood – Another Englishman way undervalued at better than 80-1. He was the low-amateur in the 2008 Open and T-5, and then finished T-3 the next year at Turnberry as one of just a handful of players that broke par (-1). He made the cut in four of five Opens, had a breakthrough victory in the Qatar Masters and then this year won the BMW PGA in windy, difficult conditions. He's had other top finishes in seaside events, and the Open and links style is well-suited for him. Only a neck injury which caused him to withdraw from last week's Scottish Open raises concern, but he likely just took precaution knowing the Open is the big event to target.

Zander Lombard – A rising 21-year-old South African star who has four top-7 finishes in his last 10 events. An unknown to watch, as is Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick, who won the 2013 U.S. Amateur and 2015 British Masters.

Other huge longshots: Francesco Molinari, Russell Knox, Brandt Snedeker

Interesting stat: Strokes gained in the wind since 2013 – at least 14 MPH during round with at least 25 rounds. Jason Day is No. 1, despite being more of a high-ball hitter. Dustin Johnson is No. 4.

Despite Day's stat play in the wind, we'll go against him with a top, proven performer Rory McIllroy, who is back in solid form despite U.S. Open showing. McIllroy is more skilled in links golf and a 2014 Open champion. That also makes him a superior choice despite the bigger price against Bubba. Check out BetOnline for some of the best Open odds and match-ups.

Rory McIllroy (-105) over Jason Day
Rory McIllroy (-175) over Bubba Watson

Our match-up report for the U.S. Open was 5-1, and we'll monitor the weather and play into the weekend as we consider more single-round match-ups Saturday and Sunday.

For those who follow the action overseas from the United States, wake up early for all the golf action with first tee time Thursday near 1:30am ET.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay