Analyzing Hall of Fame Game and NFL Preseason Strategies

The Hall of Fame Game kicks off preseason action on August 7 when the Green Bay Packers and Indianaplois Colts meet in Canton, Ohio. The line is pick 'em in many betting shops, with Green Bay showing as a 1-point favorite in plenty of other locations. The total is noteworthy at 36, as the last four Hall of Fame Games have all stayed under the total. Green Bay plays in the Hall of Fame game for the first time since 2003, when they lost to Kansas City 9-0. In fact, the Packers have scored just 3 points in their last three appearances in the Hall of Fame Game.

The question in this opening contest is how much if any will Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rogers play. It will be very little if at all, along with many other starters for the Packers. Green Bay coaches and veteran players have voiced their displeasure and lack of excitement about playing a fifth preseason game this year. Meanwhile, Colts coach Chuck Pagano has indicated all starters will play, including quarterback Andrew Luck. How much? Tune in and find out.

While NFL preseason football isn't as intense as regular season action, the competition is still fierce for many players trying to make the team and others working their way into starting spots. Evaluating players for most coaches takes priority over winning, but you can still gain an edge when betting if you follow closely and understand coach's philosophies, strategies and understanding of what they are trying to accomplish each week in August.

Trying to gauge playing time of key starters beyond the 'audition' game, most commonly the third preseason game, can be a bit tricky at times. Determining second and third stringers playing time, and their ability to produce plays a part when evaluating many rookies and younger players as they learn the schemes and how to play with new teammates. Thus, defense is often ahead of offense and that's another reason why the totals are lower. Knowing the quarterbacks and rotations along with projected playing time is something many astute bettors follow, and I've provided a QB chart for teams below.

Keeping starters healthy is a priority, but you'll see plenty of players go down with injuries during preseason play. Since starters play much less, you should immediately notice the lower totals posted throughout preseason. In the 15 games with lines posted between August 7-14, not a single contest has a posted total of 40 or more. During the regular season, with more scoring and rules changes in recent seasons, it's become rare to see a posted total less than 40.

Interesting to note that the Hall of Fame Game has been a real snoozer each of the past four seasons. Last year, the Vikings stopped the Steelers 14-3. Young Pittsburgh quarterback Landry Jones played the entire game while QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown did not play. Two years ago, the Giants beat the Bills 17-13. In the 2013 HOF game, the Bronco's and 49ers showed little offense in a 10-6 Denver win. In 2012 recall New Orleans and their high-powered offense entering the season, yet another HOF game that stayed under the total as the Saints held off the Cardinals 17-10. Just three points were scored in the second half, so another example of backups and third stringers not producing.

If you're betting preseason games, follow the beat writers and those close to the teams, and pay attention to coach's comments and strategies they may employ. Look for insight they may provide, along with motivation. For example, if a team loses a pair of early preseason games and are even embarrassed, you can count on a strong effort into their third or final preseason contest.

One final note regarding home teams and against the spread (ATS) notes. Preseason also shows less motivation for home teams in recent seasons, as home teams are just 32-31 SU and 25-36-2 ATS. It may just be a trend, but you'll see many preseason games lined between 1-3 points favoring the home team, as the linemaker is also often unsure of what to expect in these preseason 'evaluation' games. Eleven of the first 15 lined preseason games show the home team favored between 1-3 points, with 10 of them lined at 3 or 3.5.

FairwayJay is a leading national sports handicapper and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful analysts. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay