Greece will probably keep the euro in 2015, according to odds from bookmakers including Paddy Power Plc, even as one firm suspended gambling on the nation's fate.

Ireland's largest betting company put the odds on Greece staying in the euro-region this year at 4/9, meaning a successful 9-euro ($17) wager wins 4 euros. Ladbrokes Plc has Greeks backing the July 5 referendum on austerity measures at 4/7, with a rejection at 5/4.
"These prices have bounced around quite a bit over the weekend -- a couple of 'polls' seemed to suggest yes would win," said Matthew Shaddick, head of political odds at Ladbrokes. "But I don't think anyone can be very confident about predicting the result."

Not everyone's convinced: William Hill Plc has closed its book on Greece betting, while Betfair Group Plc cut the odds of Greece exiting euro-region this year to the shortest ever. In a Bloomberg television interview, Mohamed El-Erian, the former chief executive at Pacific Investment Management Co., puts an 85 percent probability that Greece will be forced to leave the euro zone in the next few weeks.

Greece has shut its banks and imposed capital controls after Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras's shock announcement late Friday of a referendum on austerity measures demanded by the country's creditors. Banks will be closed at least until July 6, the day after Greeks will vote on what is effectively a ballot on its euro membership.
"We view a 'Yes' vote in the referendum as more likely," said Michael Michaelides, a fixed-income strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. He puts the chances of an exit at 40 percent, though says it's "far more likely than on Friday evening."
William Hill Plc closed its book on Greece betting, after cutting the odds on an exit to 3/1 from 6/1.

The "situation is too volatile," said Graham Sharpe, a spokesman for the company. "Once again, punters were only betting on Grexit."
Betfair puts a 67 percent chance on Greece staying the region this year, compared with an 86 percent chance last week.
"There's obviously a degree of uncertainty as momentum over the weekend has been firmly in favour of 'Yes' to exit, said Naomi Totten, a spokeswoman for Betfair. ''However, Greece staying in the euro zone remains the clear favorite now that the market has settled.''

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